Poll: Oregon for Clinton, McCain and Novick!

Below is a press release from Riley Research restructered for easy read, 1-31-08:
UNITED STATES SENATE RACE

The contest to be the Democratic candidate in Oregon’s upcoming US Senate race remains largely undecided, with 73 percent of voters having yet to get behind a candidate. Steve Novick (at 12 percent) is the front-runner with Jeff Merkley (at 9 percent) in second place.

US Senate Race. January 2008
Steve Novick 12%
Jeff Merkley 9
Roger Obrist 3
Pavel Goberman 2
Candy Neville 1
David Loera 0
Undecided 73
Sample 201

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY ANALYSIS

Hillary Clinton continues to be Oregon’s frontrunner for Democratic hopefuls, with slightly more than one-third (36 percent) of the Democrat voter support. Barack Obama’s support has doubled since our last poll in December 2007 (from 14 percent to 28 percent). The percentage of undecided voters dropped from 33 percent in December to just 13 percent currently, and it appears that most of the previously undecided voters are now backing Obama.

Democratic Candidates/March07/Aug. 07/Dec.07/Jan.08
Hillary Clinton……31%…..26%…..30%…..36%
Barack Obama…..21 ……..18………14……..28
John Edwards…….8………17………15……..14
Undecided………..27……..30………33………13
Other………………..9………8…………7……….4
Sample./201/174/171/201

In Oregon as elsewhere, John McCain has stepped to the front of the Republican hopefuls, with his support increasing 23 percent since December (up from 7 percent). Mitt Romney also enjoyed a significant increase in support, up from 10 percent in December to 21 percent currently. Similar to the Democrats, the percentage of undecided voters has dropped sharply, mainly to the benefit of the two front-runners.

Republican CandidatesMarch.07/Aug.07/Dec.07/Jan.08
John McCain…..20%…..8%…7%…..30%
Mitt Romney……5……..15…..10…….21
Mike Huckabee..2………3…..14…….16
Rudy Giuliani…..33……16…..11……..8
Other…………….13……21…..15……..3
Undecided……..25……35…..39…….14
Sample/191/155/165/153

INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY

Riley Research Associates conducted an omnibus survey among likely Oregon voters regarding their opinions on a variety of current issues. The scientific telephone poll was conducted among 427 randomly selected registered likely voters throughout Oregon. A sample of 427 provides accuracy to within +/-4.74 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. The sub-sample of 200 Democrats is accurate to within +/-6.91 percent and the sub-sample of 153 Republicans is accurate to within +/-7.92 percent. Fielding took place between January 21st and 29th, 2008.

This poll defined “likely voters” as those who have voted in at least one of the following four elections: 2004 General, 2004 Primary, 2006 General, or 2006 Primary.

Regional breakouts were defined for cross-tabulations. The counties were classified into the following regions:
– Portland Metro: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington
– Willamette Valley: Benton, Lane, Linn, Marion, Polk, Yamhill
– Southern: Douglas, Jackson, Josephine
– Central / Eastern: Baker, Crook, Deschutes, Gilliam, Grant, Harney, Hood River, Jefferson, Klamath, Lake, Malheur, Morrow, Sherman, Umatilla, Union, Wasco, Wallowa, Wheeler
– Coast: Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln, Tillamook

An executive overview has been provided, followed by cross tabulations (banner-style), displaying the exact questions asked, along with demographic breakouts for each question.

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Posted by at 11:30 | Posted in Measure 37 | 2 Comments |Email This Post Email This Post |Print This Post Print This Post
  • devietro

    Interesting but that very hight Undecided number in the senate race makes me skeptical of the whole story. But who knows.

  • rural resident

    I realize that it’s a long way until the primary election, but this doesn’t seem to bode well for the Dems in the U. S. Senate race. It will clearly be either Novick or Merkley on the Dem side. That so few respondents chose either one seems to indicate that the name recognition for each is so low that either will have to go into overdrive just to get on voters’ radar screens, let alone gain a competitive advantage over Gordon Smith. Considering how vulnerable Smith is, the Dems seem to have done a really lousy job of finding an opponent for him.

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