Saxton – 42% (162 Votes)
Atkinson — 39% (151 Votes)
Mannix – 17% (64 Votes)
Other – 2 % (9 Votes)
Discuss … What do these results mean for the different campaigns?
How many people did Saxton have to bus in to win the damn vote?
As mentioned previously here, it’s a two-man race. And the race is clearly between well-heeled Portland lawyer Ron Saxton and the grassroots senator from southern Oregon, Jason Atkinson.
Saxton = 162 Votes 42%
Atkinson = 151 Votes 39%
Mannix = 64 Votes 17%
all Others = 9 Votes 2%
As noted by rinowatch. But the question is: Did Ron call in the busses? No word yet.
So, put in Mannix and the others, and they together pull in less than half the votes that Atkinson received. Frankly, I was surprised that Saxton managed to pull three percentage points ahead of Atkinson, given his debate performance. Saxton’s going to have to shake that money tree really, really hard in the coming weeks if he hopes to ward off the support building for the guy with low body mass.
Now, will Kevin move to support Jason, or Ron? Or is he going to keep plugging on? I’m guessing that as tough as he is, the size of the Dorchester defeat is going to give him pause.
Ron may have a nice euphoia thing going, but the margin of victory over Jason has to add a tinge of worry: had he been able to pull off, say, a ten-point margin over his closest competitor, he’d be a lot more comfortable. Ron’s no fool; he must recognize that he’s in a tight race and is carrying the same liabilities that Kevin did, four years ago: extensive name recognition, the endorsement of Lars Larson and Don McIntire, and thus a golden opportunity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Jason, by essentially telling Lars to take a hike, has effectively established a huge hurdle for Ron to overcome. You just know there’s gotta be a whole lot of thinking going on over at Ron’s place right now. By contrast, Jason has the advantage of good numbers and no baggage; freeing him to just keep meeting and taking his message to the people.
Atkinson put himself on the map with his performance on Friday night. The organic nature by which his support grew over the weekend has many activists taking pause. This race has only just begun. Watch out. Jason Atkinson is on fire!
Buzz around Dorchester is that Kevin and his crew are going to drop out of the race because his fared so poorly in the poll. He expected to clean up, but instead got it handed to him. Does anyone think Kevin ill get out of the race?
He hates Ron Saxton. If he doesn’t think he has a chance against Ron, he dropos out and Atkinson wins the primary in a walk. But with Jason in the race, I don’t see how Kevin wins. this weekend only proves what people have been saying for months – Kevin is in trouble.
In listening to the debate on Friday, as I’ve noted over at Redline, I saw some very promising signs for alliance.
Was it just me, or did anybody else notice when early in the debate Kevin mentioned that Jason’s drive and creativity, coupled with Kevin’s experience, could be a great combination for the state?
And toward the end, when Jason mentioned that when he was having a really down time, it was Kevin who opened the door to his Senate office, walked in, sat down, and asked, “How can I help?”
That’s one thing that has struck me heavily since Friday night – I see a potential for an alliance between Kevin and Jason, but I haven’t seen many talking about it yet.
I also noticed this. I think Kevin wanted to set himself up in a position where, if forced to drop out from a low vote in the straw poll, he could immediately back Jason — and when Jason is elected in November, he may be looking over towards Kevin as a potential judicial appointee.
I dunno about that. Seems Mannix has too much of an ego to give up the ghost yet. That being said, I think Jason is going to win anyways!
I am not surprised by Kevin Mannix poor showing. First was his chairmanship of Oregon Republican Party. It seems like his only reason was to improve his chances of winning the nomination. It smack of opportunitism . Then there was his performance at the debate at the Washington county GOP meeting. He sounded like he was pulling a Senator Smith by toning down his conservatism. I saw him as a compromiser rather than a leader.
I’m not surprised at all that Mannix did so poorly in the straw poll. The claim that Ron Saxton “packed” the hall with supporters is just a sour grapes excuse.
Most of us not on the inside of the party already KNOW that Mannix is “Damaged Goods”. He’s lost twice in statewide elections and he’s behind the 8 ball financially as well. More importantly, he’s viewed by most middle of the road voters as “Too Conservative/Too Hard Line” to win the Governor’s race.
Hopefully, our present “Bowling Ball Brain” governor will LOSE the Democratic Primary to Jim Hill. That would set up a most
interesting election between Hill and Saxton or Atkinson. If nothing else, it would bring some fresh ideas into the campaign – something woefully lacking with “Bowling Ball (Brain)” Ted in the race.
I came into Dorchester being undecided between Ron Saxton and Kevin Mannix, but left Dorchester with a strong third option. I felt bad as I sat next to Jason Atkinson to circle Kevin Mannix on my sheet, but spending the majority of the weekend spending time with Team Mannix and talking directly with Kevin himself had persuaded me to vote for him during Dorchester.
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