House GOP: Oregon economy vs. Democrats Economy

The September Revenue Forecast And The Democrats’ “˜Right Track’ Economy
House GOP Press Release
August 29, 2008

“”˜I believe that Oregon’s economy is on the right track.'”
(Gov. Ted Kulongoski quoted in Governor Optimistic About Economy, Sarah Skidmore, The Associated Press, 3/22/2008)
Oregon now losing an average of 2,300 jobs a month”¦
“In July, total seasonally adjusted payroll employment dropped by 3,600, the fourth monthly job loss over the past five months. Payroll employment stood at 1,730,600, which is 11,300 lower than the peak reached in February. This job loss over the most recent five months is equal to 0.6 percent of nonfarm payroll employment and has averaged 2,300 per month.”
(News Release: Oregon’s Employment Situation, Employment Department, 8/11/2008)

“¦and economists forecast further employment declines.
“OEA forecasts a decline of 0.7 percent in total employment in the third quarter and further declines of 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.
(Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast Summary, Office of Economic Analysis, 08/2008)

Personal, corporate income tax collections drop”¦
“Personal income tax revenue is down $40.1 million and corporate income tax revenue is down $63.6 million from the 2007 Close-of-Session estimate.
(LFO Forecast Summary, September 2008, Legislative Revenue Office, 8/2008)

“¦while combined General Fund, Lottery Fund resources drop.
“Total GF and Lottery resources are down $138.5 million from the 2007 Close-of-Session estimate.”
(LFO Forecast Summary, September 2008, Legislative Revenue Office, 8/2008)

At Forecast Hearing, Rep. Barnhart Calls Small Rainy Day Fund Deposit a “˜Great Success.’
Reality Check: Legislature only deposits $23.8 million in actual savings”¦
“The Ending Fund Balance has been reduced from $184.2 million at COS to $23.8 million (-$160.4). The entire $23.8 million will go to the RDF. $23.8 million is 0.1% of 2007-09 expenditures.”
(Analysis taken from LFO Forecast Summary, September 2008, Legislative Revenue Office, 8/2008

“¦putting this small deposit into perspective, $23.8 million is not even a quarter of what the Legislature is now spending on pay raises for state employees.
“Legislators released millions of dollars for key Oregon projects and priorities Friday, including $100 million for public employee salaries and benefits.”
(Emergency Board Funds Pay Raises, Julia Silverman, Associated Press, 6/28/2008)

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Posted by at 06:00 | Posted in Measure 37 | 7 Comments |Email This Post Email This Post |Print This Post Print This Post
  • Jerry

    I would trust Ted on this one – not the numbers.
    He seems to know what is going on better than a bunch of meaningless stats.
    I think Ted should know, too, as he is the man in charge.
    I trust him.
    He will make everything OK.

  • Crawdude

    To key on the lottery, wait until the smoking ban goes in effect and see what it loses.

    Its not that the same people won’t be playing. The bean counters have figured out that the 10 minutes every hour that these guys go outside to smoke will lose the lottery 10’s of millions.

    The declines in all forms of revenue will takes years to adjust to. The state economists predictions are flawed, you heard it here first:)

  • Bugs

    A reminder to House Republicans:

    House Democrats did NOT spend every dime last year. In fact, House Democrats saved hundreds of millions of dollars ($340 in the new Rainy Day fund PLUS a couple hundred million more dollars saved in the Education Stability Fund PLUS over $200 million left in the ending fund balance). As a result of their fiscal conservatism, no program service cuts are required now despite the revenue forecast being down.

    They seem to have forgotten that it was the House Republicans who spent every dime each biennium over the previous 16 years. They never created a Rainy Day Fund. They never saved any money. They are such hypocrites for criticizing the Democrats now.

    Thank goodness that we have the House Democrats in charge now to finally bring some fiscal responsibility to Salem.

  • Jerry

    I know. Those dems are the greatest.

  • Rick Hickey

    $100 Million in raises for Government employees?

    I remember when my Dad worked for the Gov’t, most of his life in fact.
    He wore polyester suits and even as a manager, had a cheap steel desk and they all worked in a Qounsehut, an old metal building from the 50’s. They had no cell phones, no high speed internet with huge flat panel screens and no marble walls & floors with spendy rare wooden desks (go to the Lottery office in Salem-wow!).

    I asked why he worked there, being the mathematical genious he was (College degree in economics at 17). He said he was a Civil Servant and worked for the people and was doing his duty to his Country, after serving in the Navy.

    He was also an Alchoholic, torn up inside over his job duty. I asked what his job really was. He said my 80 people and I must spend $3 million a day of Taxpayer money (in the 70’s) or else. We have to to justify our constant increase in our budget or we were not doing a good job.

    He gave it all up and moved us to Tumalo and bought a Farm in 1978. It was the best thing that ever happened to our family.

    $35 Million to make the Capitol nicer than a suite at Bellagio in Vegas? $100 million in raises while the economy heads downward.

    Why are so many Americans allowing OUR government to become a Kingdom?

    Unfortunately, the apathetic many who need this info to wake up are not the ones who will read this, they are watching “Reality” TV, just as the Gov’t hopes they will.

    #1 reason for stagnant wages? #1 reason for the resulting less Tax collections? #1 reason for huge Health care cost increases? #1 reason for giant increases in Education costs? #1 reason for huge increases in Government Social Services costs?

    Answer: ILLEGAL immigration. SOLUTION? No Jobs w/ E-Verify and No Services with S.S.O.L.V. = No money for Illegals! If they can’t get their hands on OUR money they will go home at their expense.
    AZ & OK are proof this works.

    Will our “leaders” crawl out from under their desk and really solve this problem or continue to ignore it and raise costs to Americans even more?

    It IS up to you, we are not a Kingdom, yet.

    Step #1 in November, Yes on Measure #58, English Immersion Only.

  • Delia Lopez

    Our government has not helped our workers with the passage of NAFTA, CAFTA etc. Which is not free trade. Increasing taxes on business increases our cost on everything we buy and drives companies out of Oregon. If Blumenauer and his group pass the carbon tax and get their way on the bridge and light rail into Milwalkee, plan on higher taxes and less money for schools and police and things we “the people” actually want. We need to take back our country, get people with common sense into congress.
    Delia Lopez
    US Congressional Candidate Oregon #3

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