It all ends today. Give us your best predictions and all your final thoughts on the polls, candidates, campaigns, ads etc.
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I predict Oregon House Democrats will hit 35.
The US Senate Ds will hit 57.
As Bo Jack said today ” I voted and I felt like I got my country back”. That feeling is being released all over the country.
If Obama is elected and the Dem’s win the trifecta church attendance will exceed even that on Christmas Day this Sunday. We’ll all be praying for Divine Intervention!
Final electoral vote: Obama wins 341-197.
Merkley, Begich, Shaheen, Hagan, and Franken win Senate seats, taking Dems to 57+2 in the Senate, but Lieberman gets kicked out of the caucus for insurrection, making it a 58-42 divide.
No Republicans win statewide office in Oregon, but Rossi/Gregoire will be too close to call until Friday at the earliest.
Obama by about 6% popular and 50-75 electoral. Dems at 58 senate seats and 260 in the House. Republicans implode and do a final cliff jump with Palin in 2012. A few survivors form a new, smarter, better, more moderate party.
I expect the R’s to begin putting together more pragmatic candidates in 2010 to run for house seats, the same way the democrats ran their more moderate conservative blue dogs in 2006. Palin will not be the nominee in 2012. I don’t know who it will be but watch for a more business oriented elected republican to step up in 2012.
By the way, Obama 290-245, but the popular vote will be much closer. I don’t believe he will say he now has political clout like Bush said in 2004 when he eeked out a victory in 2004.
I just don’t see signs of pragmatism. I mean…read Rupert’s post below. McCain too “moderate?” What….they would have done better with Tancredo?
There is this mythology around conservatism that allows defiance of reality, whether scientific or political. Classic conservatism is something that can be resurrected because it is relative, not absolute. It is about resisting radical change to established institutions and consolidating, not rolling history backwards. But “movement conservatism,” which dominates current thinking, is radical. It has to roll back institutionlized changes, like Social Security and abortion rights. And it is contemptuous of government altogether, which explains the Katrina debacle and collapsing bridges. This is where the Republicans have gone off the rails, particularly with Gingrich and later with Bush. Reagan talked a good movement game but when push came to shove he was a pragmatist. It will take a while for contemporary conservatives to regroup. I mean…basing your campaign on Joe the Plumber while you fight against unions, minimum wages, public education and expanded health care? Please.
Now if the Democrats fail by under or over reaching, and the economy continues to decline or stagnate, that opens the door to whatever way the Republicans want to go, because a plurality of voters don’t care about ideology. They will vote for change when the current party is failing….period.
Rupert needs to answer this question, an actual conservative or an idealogue? True conservatives know when to be pragmatic, i.e. Orrin Hatch. For 8 years we watched an idealogue who tried dressing as a conservative and it did’nt work.
He’s not talking to me.
“Rupert needs to answer this question, an actual conservative or an idealogue?”
That’s not a question, its a sentance fragment since it is phrased with an indefinite subject. Since there is no indication as to what “an” refers to, I have to assume if you are asking if I am a conservative.
Fine, Im a conservative.
This is some big whoop to you?
God knows why.
I don’t know any ideologues who admit to being such, so however the question is phrased may not matter. What makes one an ideologue is holding to one’s beliefs against all evidence to the contrary. You Rupert, have provided a fair amount of evidence that you fit this description, though you also have provided evidence the other way. In my humble opinion.
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Obama wins by 5. Yet again the media will have given a 3-4 point bump to a democratic candidate and yet again their will be no analysis over the voter suppression aspects of this.
The election could be somewhat historic in that Obama may be only the third Democrat elected into office in the past 65 years with a majority of the popular vote.
Dems also gain in house and Senate.
1992 replays with Democrats over reaching, oddly not due to Obama, but due to Congress. Obama is smart enough to know to lay low and not get all goo goo eyed liberal. Congressional Dems not so much. We will see essentially a replay of Chuck Schumer’s infamous “people have always argued this was the camels nose under the tend, now we’d like to show you the rest of the camel” approach.
Obama has two years. He knows he outspent McCain by huge margins, and even 60% of Democrats agree the media coverage was excessively pro Obama. With that, and perfect economic conditions favouring him, he still had a nail biter of an election. Hardly a stunning endorsement of his policies. This would be pretty obvious to anyone, and Obama probably will understand that. The lessons of Clinton 1992 – 1994 are probably not lost on him.
If he understands that, he has at least a solid four years. If he doesn’t, he has two years and then a Republican congress in at least on branch of congress in 2010. Clintons success, such as it was, was in realizing as liberal as he may be, this is a center right country. Obama’s slim victory probably makes that ever more apparent. The question is, have the lessons of the disastrous first two years of the Clinton administration been learned?
In 2010 look to Republicans and Democrats to run conservative candidates, its how the Dems took the House in 2006. In 2012 Republicans may finally get it and realize that moderates have never faired will. McCain and Dole being the prime examples. The lessons of both Bush presidencies, being archetypes of moderate Republicanism and both being judged unsuccessful will finally sink in. Maybe.
I think McCain wins but its really close. When I drew my map I got McCain by 8 electoral votes. I think Smith wins the senate race and Allen Alley wins as well. I would love to see Rick Dancer win but he just did not advertise enough.
Obama wins, its a little close than the polls have shown though.
Franken in Minnesota is laughed at by the voters, Coleman re-elected.
Stevens actually win re-election ( this is my ” out on a limb” prediction).
DNC pickups 20 house seats, John Murtha loses a nail biter.
DNC ends up with 56 seats, stupidly alienates ally Lieberman by yanking chairmanship.
54, 55 PASS
61 beats 57
Economy continues towards recession , GOP picks up seats from floundering DNC in 2010, regains majority and Presidency in 2012. Economy recovers in 2013 for 7 years until bandaid effect of 2008 bailouts comes undone and economy implodes worse in 2020. Merry-go-round starts all over again, etc, etc, etc….
Oregon DNC takes complete control of state government, has no one left to blames for their shortcomings. Public Employee Unions consolidate their control of Oregon DNC.
McCain over Obama, blood spilled in the urban streets
Smith over Merkley, lattes spilled in the Pearl
Alley over Westlund, bull semen spilled in Tumalo
My prediction is a tie plus or minus 10 Electoral Votes.
Based on early news from Amanda Carpenter we can now call the State of Philadelphia.
“GOP Election Board members have been tossed out of polling stations in more than half a dozen polling stations in Philadelphiaâ€¦ A liberal judge previously *ruled that court-_appointed_ poll watchers could NOT be removed* from their boards by an on-site election judge, but that is exactly what is happening.”
“Some of the precincts where Republicans have been removed are: the 44th Ward, 12th and 13th divisions; 6th Ward, 12th division; 32nd Ward, Division 28.”
At 9 AM today we were able to call the State of Philadelphia for Obama.
In other news four local TV stations did the work that CNN, CBS, NBC, the New York Times, and MSNBC lack resources to do.
*Some Georgians Suspected Of Voting Twice*
WSB TV 2
“Georgia’s Secretary of State has launched a full investigation and may seek criminal charges â€œThis is extraordinarily disturbing,” said Secretary of State Karen Handel.”
“A team of investigative journalists from WSB-TV in Atlanta, WFTV in Orlando and WFTS in Tampa and WCPO in Cincinnati compared Georgia’s voter rolls with those in Florida and Ohio and found more than 100,000 people who appear to be registered to vote in more than one state, with no government oversight to catch it.”
WSB-TV Channel 2 tried to find Thomas Habel at the home where he’s registered to vote in Hartwell, Georgia, but was unable to locate him.
Thatâ€™s because he was spending time at his other home in Marco Island, Florida. Before he left for the Sunshine State, according Georgia’s Secretary of State, Habel early-voted at the Hart County elections office.
Chief registrar Elizabeth Forbes says she knows Habel and saw him cast his ballot. She even gave him a sticker. State records confirm Habel voting on October 1, 2008, but Florida records show him voting there on October 25.
A check of Georgia’s master voter rolls revealed *more than 42,000* people who also appear to be registered in Florida. WSB-TV Channel 2 found three who appear to have double voted, which is a felony.
“Shocking, it’s really shocking,â€ said voter Kelley Johnson. â€œI wouldn’t think to do something like that.”
For the *larger list of 112,000* [duplicate] *voters,* WSB-TV Channel 2 was only able to verify their first, middle and last name and dates of birth; some of them could turn out to be different people with the exact same information.
The Secretaries of State can match them by social security number and if they wait until after the election, they will have a complete list of how many of them voted and how many times.
Gives a new meaning to the Acorn recommendation to vote early and often.
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