Cap-and-Trade Answers for Cocktail Party Questions

global warming.serendipityThumb Cap and Trade Answers for Cocktail Party QuestionsIt always happens. You are standing there with coworkers, friends, political allies (or foes), or total strangers, and someone says very dogmatically, “We have to do something to save the planet.”

Climate change, and how to deal with it, is literally one of the hottest topics in state and national public policy. Because astonishing news sells, media coverage on climate change focuses on exaggerated claims of future catastrophe and proposes economically devastating “solutions” that may have no effect on global climate at all. Unfortunately, misleading media reporting makes it difficult for citizens and legislators alike to discern fact from fiction.

But you can be the one offering common-sense answers others haven’t heard. What works, what won’t, and cap-and-trade policies currently under consideration in Salem that will affect every industry””and household””in Oregon: Click here to see “Cap-and-Trade in Oregon: A Primer for Legislators and Citizens.” Sip your cocktail in peace.

Cascade Policy Institute is Oregon’s nonpartisan, free market public policy research center.

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Posted by at 01:30 | Posted in Measure 37 | 57 Comments |Email This Post Email This Post |Print This Post Print This Post
  • spam i am

    And if you follow this advice, you will be known by your ancestors as the one at the cocktail party who had their head buried where the sun does not much shine.

    News flash for Cascade Policy…a rapidly warming earth also will “affect every industry-and household-in Oregon.” Doing something…doing nothing…either will have effects.

  • jim karlock

    *spam i am* And if you follow this advice, you will be known by your ancestors as the one at the cocktail party who had their head buried where the sun does not much shine.
    *JK:* Given your confidence in your position, please tell us where to find proof that CO2 can actually cause dangerous warming.

    Then explain the lack of global warming in the last 10 years in the satellite record as CO2 continued to rise.

    Then explain the lack of a CO2 fingerprint in the atmosphere.

    Then reconcile your belief with the ice core records which show temperature leading CO2 by an average of 800 years.

    IF you cannot do all of the above, please put you head back where it came from.

    Thanks
    JK

    • David Appell

      Jim, let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas.

      Please explain, under that assumption, why Venus (atmosphere: 96.5% CO2) has such a high mean temperature (462 C).

      If you say that it’s because Venus is closer to the Sun than earth (0.72 AU vs 1 AU), please calculate its solar irradiance and show how this accounts for the difference in temperatures between the atmospheres of Venus and Earth (14 C).

      • David Appell

        Jim: you will also need to explain why Mercury (~0.4 AU) has a mean temperature of only about 340 K.

        • jim karlock

          *David Appell:* Please explain, under that assumption, why Venus (atmosphere: 96.5% CO2) has such a high mean temperature (462 C).

          If you say that it’s because Venus is closer to the Sun than earth (0.72 AU vs 1 AU), please calculate its solar irradiance and show how this accounts for the difference in temperatures between the atmospheres of Venus and Earth (14 C)
          *JK:* Why bother. Lets keep it simple. Our CO2 is about .04%, your Venus 96.5%, 2400 times as much. Lets give you the benefit of the doubt, keep it simple, and assume all of the 462c (above an otherwise 0c) is due to CO2. That is one degree for each 5 times earth’s CO2.

          By this simple analysis, we can increase CO2 by 5 times for ONE degree temperature rise. This is actually not too far off of some of the latest estimates. This suggests that we can increase CO2 by ten times with little more effect than bringing back the temperatures of the Roman times. If I recall correctly, we do not have that much fossil fuel.

          So, David, are you expecting our CO2 to reach 10-20 times its current level? If so tell us where we will get that much C to react with the O.

          Thanks
          JK

          • David Appell

            Jim Karlock wrote:
            > By this simple analysis,

            Your calculation assumes that the the relationship between temperature and CO2 percentage is linear.

            Why? Viz., according to what scientific principle?

      • jim karlock

        *Hey, David* We are still waiting for you to show your previous statements to be true. Your claim that you have answered them is simply false:
        *1.* “the science is that the world is warming and man is responsible for much of it. This is well-established in the scientific literature.”
        *2.* CO2 can cause “far more than 0.5 C warming”
        *3.* “if you’re going to damage the climate by burning carbon ”
        *4.* “today’s CO2 is different – manmade (there’s irrefutable proof of this).”
        *5.* “Global warming is, simply, the most serious and most difficult problem ever faced by mankind. . .This is a sound, definite scientific conclusion, no longer in any real doubt”

        *Where is the evidence? Your silence is ample evidence that you have none*

        Thanks
        JK

        • David Appell

          Jim, your analysis above, assuming a simple-minded and scientifically illegitimate linear relationship between CO2 levels and atmospheric temperature, tells me you simply are fundamentally ignorant of the basics of climate science.

          So naturally no answer I have given to your repeated questions has made any difference — you’re clearly incapable of understanding them anyway.

          Go do some studying, Jim — a lot of studying. Come back when you’re prepared to discuss real science, and not your 2nd grade version of it.

          • jim karlock

            Well, you didn’t like me saying that it was a log function and thus leveling out at our current CO2 level. You can’t have it both ways.

            Why don’t you tell us what function to use *and show us the calculation.*

            BTW, we are still waiting for you to back up your previous wild claims:

            *1.* “the science is that the world is warming and man is responsible for much of it. This is well-established in the scientific literature.”
            *2.* CO2 can cause “far more than 0.5 C warming”
            *3.* “if you’re going to damage the climate by burning carbon ”
            *4.* “today’s CO2 is different – manmade (there’s irrefutable proof of this).”
            *5.* “Global warming is, simply, the most serious and most difficult problem ever faced by mankind. . .This is a sound, definite scientific conclusion, no longer in any real doubt”

            Thanks
            JK

          • David Appell

            Jim, the relationship is nonlinear, and cannot be simply written down in closed form. That is the whole point.

            I and others have repeatedly answered your questions. It’s now clear, though, based on your ignorant calculation involving Venus temperatures, that you clearly lack the knowledge and education to understand them anyway. So what’s the point? We’ve finally seen what you really are: just another know-nothing agitator who is not interested in scientific truth, but just scoring points.

  • Rupert in Springfield

    I kind of remember way back when……

    When oh when was it????…everything gets all misty.

    Oh yeah, that’s right, back in October when I said Obama was the biggest spending liberal in the senate. Well, back then I think I was told by those who warned of weird cocktail parties that I had my head in the sand, that Obama was not a big spending liberal.

    Hmmm… makes one wonder if those on the cocktail party circuit so concerned about where my head goes are equally ridiculous in their AGW predictions?

    • spam i am

      Well…if I was the one at the party…I don’t make any AGW predictions. I go with the evidence, and it is clear if not infalible. Earth warming due to atmospheric buildup of CO2. Human burning of fossil fuels primary cause. Past time to act.

      As for spending, its what one does at times like these to avoid a greater catastrophe. As I recall, it was a self-described conservative President and a self-described conservative Congress that doubled the national debt, and he left office with a $750B emergency bailout for the banking industry as the last notch on his well notched economic disaster belt.

      And as I recall, the last big spending liberal president ended his 2 terms with a balanced budget after inheriting a deficit mess from that other Bush and Mr Conservative himself, Ronald Reagan. Time will tell how Obama ends up…and I still don’t make predictions…but I’ll bet you dollars to donuts Obama’s ending deficit is far less than that of his predicessor.

      • Rupert in Springfield

        >As for spending, its what one does at times like

        Well, I am not arguing whether the spending makes sense or not. Given the DOW it clearly doesn’t.

        What I am arguing is I predicted the White House’s actions based upon Obama’s senate record as a big spending liberal. You denied those claims and said he was nothing of the sort prior to the election. Obviously you were wrong on that and I was right in my pre election assessment of the man.

        So, given where we are now, it is clear you are not very good at predicting things. That much is clearly established. What needs to be answered now is why are your assessment was so clearly 180 degrees wrong? If we know that we will understand how to evaluate your other assessments.

        The answer is you asses a situation from a partisan position. This is why you were wrong on Obama and why you believe such nonsense as it has been proven humans are the primary cause of global warming.

        Everyone is now officially laughing at you at the cocktail part regarding your Obama prediction. You really want to go for another flop given that we had snow in TX this past fall?

        Personally Id advise you to hang out at the pretzel bowl and maybe not try and be an oracle, its not your strong suit. Who knows, maybe the Clinton diversions might work there, they don’t work with me.

        • spam i am

          Oh how did I miss this? He is a “big spending liberal” because the situation….a rapid contraction of the economy….calls for a big spending solution. Did you predict a rapidly contracting economy?

          I was “wrong” on Obama? Yes. I admit it. I did not know he was going to be as smart and adaptive to conditions as he is showing.

    • David Appell

      Rupert, can you clarify your question by explaining what relationship there is between the ideas of economics and the laws of physics?

      Also, seeing as how raw capitalism and unadulterated conservatism got us into this mess, how can you be so sure that liberal spending politics will not get us out of it?

  • John Fairplay

    At cocktail parties 500 years ago, all the smartest people in the room were absolutely convinced that the universe revolved around the Earth. After all, a consensus of scientists said so.

    • spam i am

      A consensus of scientists? No John…a consensus of self-righteous bible thumping control freaks. it was the scientists who…at great personal risk…managed to convinced them otherwise well after the evidence was long established. Sound familiar?

      • jim karlock

        Hey, *spam i am,*

        We are still waiting for you to answer those questions above.

        Thanks
        JK

        • spam i am

          Hey Jim…they have been answered for you on many occasions. You just do not accept the answers. Since one version of insanity is trying the same thing over again and expecting a different result, I’ll let you hold the honor.

          • jim karlock

            You (David, I presume) have NOT answered these questions and you know it. If you claim otherwise, please provide a link.

            thanks
            JK

          • spam i am

            Dean I am…not David.

            I’ll give you 2 links, both of which you already know, and both of which you have previously dismissed. Now you can dismiss them again and ask me for more links.

            http://www.ipcc.ch/about/index.htm
            http://www.realclimate.org/

          • jim karlock

            *Hey, Dean,* you are using the frequent trick of one who has no case – refer someone to a few thousand pages and say “there is the proof.”

            *JK* Give me a citation to a particular page and quote to make your case, or admit that you have no case.

            Thanks
            JK

          • spam i am

            Like I said…one version of insanity….

            i don’t know of a single page that makes the case Jim. I go with the preponderance of evidence, which is spelled out very clearly in the IPCC reports, which rely on peer reviewed published research findings of many scientists from many disciplines. The “proof” is that every national and international scientific organization and academy that deals in ecology and climate science has supported the findings and recomendations of the IPCC.

            A single quote or single citation would not “prove” anything. The preponderance of evidence gathered and analyzed about the natural world is sufficient for me. It’s not sufficient for you, and neither would a single statement from a single person, so let’s just call it a draw and leave it at that.

          • jim karlock

            If you cannot provide specific citations to specific proofs, you have no proof. You only have the impression from all of the vague, unsupported statements in the IPCC reports.

            You are their target audience: an unthinking, unquestioning, non-analytical person.

            Thanks
            JK

          • Jim,

            IPCC 4th Assessment Report, FAQ 9.2, Fig 1, p. 703
            (bottom three graphs)
            http://tinyurl.com/27ocvp

          • David Appell

            Jim, I have pointed you to this proof several times, including last 8/8 on Rob Kremer’s blog:

            IPCC 4th Assessment Report, FAQ 9.2, Fig 1, p. 703
            (bottom three graphs)
            http://tinyurl.com/27ocvp

            Don’t like computer models? Hansen et al have recently calculated climate sensitivity without using any models, based purely on paleoclimate data:

            Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, and J.C. Zachos, 2008: Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231, doi:10.2174/1874282300802010217.

            Their answer: 3 C for 2xCO2.

          • jim karlock

            *David Appell: *
            IPCC 4th Assessment Report, FAQ 9.2, Fig 1, p. 703
            (bottom three graphs)
            http://tinyurl.com/27ocvp
            *JK:* If you consider those graphs to prove anything, it is only further evidence of you being unfit to be a science writer:
            Where is the empirical data?
            Where is the proof that the models actually work as described?
            Where is the proof that anthropological forcings is the only explanation for the gap between the two lines?

            Don’t like computer models? Hansen et al have recently calculated climate sensitivity without using any models, based purely on paleoclimate data:

            *David Appell:* Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, and J.C. Zachos, 2008: Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231, doi:10.2174/1874282300802010217.

            Their answer: 3 C for 2xCO2.
            *JK:* Hansen is a well known alarmist who has received thousands of dollars from the Democrats to tow the party line. In 1988, he predicted disastrous warming if we did not cut CO2, we didn’t cut CO2, and we DIDN’T get any warming at all – it is about he same temperature NOW as it was when he gave his testimony to congress according to the official temperature record that Hansen himself keeps – USHCN. He is fool and liar. See sustainableoregon.com/theon.html

            Please quit trying to pawn off bought and paid Democrat shills as scientists.

            Real scientists have much lower predictions, including almost no warming.

            Thanks
            JK

          • jim karlock

            *David Appell:* Jim, I have pointed you to this proof several times, including last 8/8 on Rob Kremer’s blog:
            IPCC 4th Assessment Report, FAQ 9.2, Fig 1, p. 703
            (bottom three graphs)
            http://tinyurl.com/27ocvp
            *JK:* Which of those three graphs proves your claim that “the science is that the world is warming and man is responsible for much of it. This is well-established in the scientific literature.”

            *JK:* Which of those three graphs proves your claim that CO2 can cause “far more than 0.5 C warming”

            *JK:* Which of those three graphs proves your claim that “if you’re going to damage the climate by burning carbon ”

            *JK:* Which of those three graphs proves your claim that “today’s CO2 is different – manmade (there’s irrefutable proof of this).”

            *JK:* Which of those three graphs proves your claim that “Global warming is, simply, the most serious and most difficult problem ever faced by mankind. . .This is a sound, definite scientific conclusion, no longer in any real doubt”

            Thanks JK

    • John in Oregon

      I must say I never fail to be positively impressed here. For example John Fairplay commented:>

      *500 years ago, all the smartest people in the room were absolutely convinced that the universe revolved around the Earth. After all, a consensus of scientists said so.* Said comment elicited a sharp response.

      before I go on let me lay some background. Everyone knows that when Columbus sailed to America in 1492, Christians at the time thought that he would fall off the edge of the world. Its taught is school.

      Its what everyone knows. BUT what everyone knows just ain’t so.

      “St. Thomas Aquinas, who was made a saint because of his genius, *wrote that the world was round almost 250 years before Columbus made his journey.* Medieval universities, which were Christian institutions, used a textbook entitled Sphere to teach astronomy. *Two hundred years before Columbus,* Buridan, Rector of the University of Paris, *wrote a long discussion proving that the rotation of the Earth on its axis produced night and day,* assuming, as did all his fellow Christian scholars throughout Europe, that the Earth was round. No serious Christian thinkers thought that the world was flat, as Edward Grant notes in his 1971 book, Physical Science in the Middle Ages (London: Cambridge University Press, 1971.)”

      Now to the sharp response. *No John…_a consensus of self-righteous bible thumping control freaks._ it was the scientists who…at great personal risk…managed to convinced them otherwise well after the evidence was long established. Sound familiar?*

      Well, uh yes, familiar and what we know that just ain’t so.

      “Stillman Drake, the world’s leading Galileo scholar, demonstrates in his book “Galileo: A Very Short Introduction” (Oxford University Press, 2001) that *it was not theologians, but rather his fellow physicists* (then called _”natural philosophers”_ ), who manipulated the Inquisition into trying and convicting Galileo.

      The “out-of-the-mainsteam” *Galileo had the gall to prove the consensus view, the Aristotlean theory, wrong* by devising *simple experiments that anyone could do.*

      Galileo’s fellow scientists first tried to refute him by argument from authority. They failed.

      Then these “scientists” tried calling Galileo names, but this made no impression on the average person, who could see with his own eyes that Galileo was right.

      Finally, Galileo’s fellow “scientists” called in the Inquisition to silence him.”

      It was the self-righteous bible thumping control freaks of the Church of Rome that were required to quiet the waters.

      Soooo, John Fairplay, right on, go getem guy.

      Uh, and Dean (Spam) you forgot to add gun toting to the Christian tirade

      • spam i am

        I was not there to witness it John, but my history books say it was 2 Dominican Friars, Tommaso Caccini and Niccolò Lorini who turned Gallileo into the Inquisition, accusing him of heresy. Also note that the Inquisition, a collection of control freak religious zealots (mostly pre-personal firearms) who tortured people in the name of Christ, said it was ok for Gallileo to talk about and even teach his theory that the earth revolved around the sun, as long as he could provide ABSOLUTE PROOF. Sound familiar? JK asking for PROOF of global warming…maybe THEN we can talk about cap and trade?

        Only Gallileo had a problem. There are no proofs in science. Only a preponderance of evidence based on repeatable experimentation and models. Thus his theory was deemed heretical by the Qualifiers because and only because it contradicted the literal meaning of the Scriptures…i.e. religious zealots.

        He didn’t give up and later published the Dialogues, which got him into more trouble, he was brought back to the inquisition, convicted, spent the rest of his life under house arrest, and was forbidden to publish anything ever again.

        Yes, Gallileo overturned the previous consensus view, which was not at all scientific, but was based on direct human experience and the bible. At great personal cost he laid a foundation for modern science to base its findings on evidence….and that is exactly what has been done in the case of global warming. Therein lies your and the Catalyst and JK’s problem.

  • Anonymous

    dean,spam I am,

    You’ve made a AGW fool out of yourself so many times it’s past time for you to get treatment.
    You don’t go with evidence at all. Any more than you do with local issues on land use and transportation planning.

    And a dishonest propagandizer you absolutely are.

    There is no Earth warming due to atmospheric buildup of CO2. Human burning of fossil fuels, period.

    You can’t even point to a single major proponent willing to debate because they are all hiding behind the same gibberish you deliver.

    However a recent debate did occur.
    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2200792/posts
    St Andrews University: Global Warming Loses Formal Debate (AGW Can’t Argue Facts, Must Insult)

    “the proponents of the motion had not made a case and they had not addressed any of our arguments. Instead, they had made personal attacks on the opposition speakers, and they had asserted – with no evidence or argument – that the IPCC is right”

    Just like dean and David.

    The great catastrophe will be the foolish and dishonest policies dean supports to fight AGW that doesn’t exist.

    Really dean you might as well be arguing the Beaverton Round is success story.

    You can stumble all around with remarks about Reagan and Bush all you want. But Obama is taking over the charge and attack on our energy and other industries while spending unheard of amounts on every liberal pipe dream imaginable.

    IMO he may end up to be a 1 term blunder.

    As for insanity?
    The mother of all insane liberal blunders is global warming.
    Own it dean.

    For the rest of today’s stories and to keep up to speed.

    http://www.icecap.us
    http://www.wattsupwiththat.com
    http://www.climateaudit.org

  • Bob clark

    Couple of things.

    (1)
    Washington state just made their cap & trade voluntary. Arizona is thinking of removing itself from the Western Climate Initiative. California is a basket case, and doesn’t actually follow through on most of its initiatives. The same can be said for the European Union. China and others are building new coal generation plants at a rapid clip to feed their appetites for material economic prosperity. Think what you might about man’s release of CO^2, as a practical matter Oregonians and Demos in DC are nutcases if they think anything they do is going to keep CO^2 and climate change from doing what its going to do. All our nutcases are going to do is relegate us to relative economic decline. Places like the Port of Kalma will be advertising: locate your business at our port where you don’t have to file burdensome red tape reports on CO^2. You can be a solar manufacture and get low cost electricity and less red tape in Washington versus Oregon.

    (2)
    What mostly climate change is about is government power and intrusion into our everyday lives. I am not sure I wouldn’t rather live with the negative consequences of climate change than the great losses in individual freedom and material wellbeing the government is proposing. This may also be the case: “Give me liberty, or give me death.”

    In a way, Washington state has it right. Reducing CO^2 emissions should be a voluntary effort so as to preserve individual freedom and better balance material prosperity and the environment.

    • joe

      Actually, reducing greenhouse emission should be a crime as it is denying plants the vital food that they need to feed us.

      • David Appell

        Joe, nice try, but there was plenty of CO2 for plants to thrive heartedly before man put all the extra CO2 into the atmosphere (ie at 280 ppm). The earth is well capable of taking care of itself sans human interference.

      • John in Oregon

        Nice try David.

        The present CO2 levels are at a historic long term low. That would suggest the optimum is higher than today. Its also been demonstrated that plants survive better at levels of 1,000 to 1,200 PPM, or three times today’s levels.

        There is more than ample basis for the Green Movement to bring legal action on behalf of CO2 starved plants. After all it’s a mater of balance between plants and animals and plants ought not be cheated like this. Its an evil thing to do to plants.

        And after all didn’t Mother Gia put man on the planet so he could burn the coal to feed the plants?

        Come on David. Get with it man. Its just sooooo grovey man, can you dig it?

        • David Appell

          John, there is simply no evidence that the earth’s plants are wanting for carbon dioxide, or would suffer if it were cut back. Indeed, there is less vegetation on the planet now (when CO2 content = 387 ppmv) than their was before the Industrial Revolution (280 ppmv).

        • John in Oregon

          David you need to direct those comments to the green house operators that pump in CO2 to 1,000-1,200 levels. Show them your studies that disprove what those growers see with their own eyes.

          • David Appell

            John, your claim that green power is ten times more expensive than conventional power is absurd and ridiculous. What is its source?

            When I lived in Portland I was able to purchase 100% green power from Pacific Power. The premium was about 10%, or about $3-4/month.

    • David Appell

      Bob, I believe the Washington plan to reduce cap-n-trade to voluntary is still in the legislature, though the version passed in Committee does indeed make it voluntary. But this isn’t a done deal yet, I think.

  • John in Oregon

    Todd

    Good work by the way.

    I have a question about the underlying studies supporting the cap and trade primer. They show an attention to detail on the primary impacts of the cap and trade tax. For example the energy cost increase to manufacturer A will increase product price by X, or reduce jobs by Y.

    I wonder however to what degree the secondary costs can be calculated. For example the change in demand for raw material inputs used by a manufacturer impacted by the increased energy cost. Likely dozens of secondary economic costs like this can be found.

    Another large secondary cost is the Tax multiplier effect. Generally considered to be 3. Reducing tax by $1 produces $3 of economic expansion. Raising tax by $1 produces $3 of economic contraction.

    The capital gains tax, impact on capitol investment is particularly sensitive. Cap and trade is another tax with secondary effects that ripple through the economy.

    Another point.

    Oregon has a host of new energy laws from turbine laws to fuel composition mandates. I wonder about the cost of interaction of all these laws. Lets consider Senate Bill 838 as an example.

    SB 838 requires a 25% new renewable power component, ramping up beginning in 2011. While the legislature mandated the renewable power source, it did noting to clear the impediments to compliance. Regulatory obstructions (land use planing) to new facility construction, permitting impact delays, legal challenges and an investment capitol starved market all are uncontrolled impediments to compliance.

    Fortunately SB 838 contains an end user cost circuit breaker of 4% which is triggered when rates rise. In which case an Alternative Compliance Payment (ACP, nice euphemism) will be charged. The size of this ACP Tax / Fine or if its chargeable to the rate payer isnt clear to me, and may likely require DEQ, PUC and other agencies to determine.

    So we have an absurd situation. “Green Power” is much more costly (around 10 times) than 4% above conventional Coal, Natural Gas and hydro power so the ACP becomes the key player. And if the ACP is greater than 4% (which seems likely) then the ACP may be charged to the rate payer, circumventing the 4% protection. Or. It’s charged against investor profitability. Regulation only a politician could love. (Of course the Politicians probably think the 4% circuit breaker will make renewables only 4% more costly. Just pass a law and make it so.)

    For the sake of my question, lets assume that SB838 will only cost 10,000 jobs. What then will be the cost of SB838 combined with cap and trade?

    The temptation is to assume the combination would be the sum of the 90,000 cap / trade lost jobs and the 10,000 SB383 lost jobs or 100,000.

    But with the cap tax pushing consumers away from coal and natural gas, while SB 383 pushes the same consumers away from carbon free hydro and with nuclear prohibited I can see that answer easily being 150,000 or more lost jobs.

    It’s a Politicians wet dream and an economic / business nightmare.

    Here is an excellent example of regulation run amuck. One of the California power utilities had a plant that was constructed in the late 1950s. The plant was old, out of date, inefficient and did not have the latest pollution controls. The utility wanted to rebuild the plant.

    When the rebuild was proposed the California land use agency said a new siteing permit was required, and under the then current rules would not be allowed. Small upgrade and maintenance was allowable.

    With the rebuild denied the California air quality board ruled that the plant was out of compliance and levied a $50,000 per day fine for each day of operation.

    So then the utility proposed a series of small upgrades to control pollution. California DEQ denied the permits stating the law required a full upgrade.

    So finally the utility concluded the only remaining choice was to decommission the plant. At which point the California PUC denied the decommissioning as an unwarranted cost to the rate payer.

  • Anonymous

    David,

    You have repeatedly condemned others for what you call mistaking weather for climate while you yourself have written that Hurricane Katrina and a heat wave in France were caused by global warming.

    You’re the biggest liar around who continually misrepresents both global warming and the global debate about it.

    Showing up here with more is insulting.

    • David Appell

      Proof?

      I have never said that Katrina was caused by GW, and have repeatedly stressed that scientists are still uncertain as to the relationship between AGW and hurricane strength, and that Chris Mooney’s book “Storm World” was premature and scientifically inaccurate.

      As for France, I have only said that the 2003 heat wave was consistent with what we expect in a warming world, and that that is the most one can say about any particular weather event.’

      • jim karlock

        *David Appell: * As for France, I have only said that the 2003 heat wave was consistent with what we expect in a warming world,
        *JK:* According to you guys almost everything is “consistent with what we expect in a warming world,” including record cold.

        Thanks
        JK

  • Jay Bozievich

    My favorite “cocktail party” comments on AGW are:

    “When has the climate of Earth ever been stable and unchanging?”

    “What is the optimum climate for Earth?”

    “Please explain to me how to measure the temperature of the Earth and how do that for historical tracking?”

    “Why were the Martian Ice caps melting over the same period the temperatures on Earth were rising? Are the Mars rovers burning fossil fuels?”

  • John in Oregon

    Dean (Spam) RE thread 4.2.1. its best to consult something other than The Incomplete History Of The World. Say for example the work of a historian with special interest in Galileo. Like, I don’t know, for example the citation I gave you.

    Of course the “natural philosophers” went to a sympathetic “Friar” to champion the accusation against Galileo. They couldn’t go to the King or the Pope, they go to someone who has the ear of the King or Pope. Sorta like, humm what would be a good example. Ohh I know. Like:

    Like then Senator Al Gore going to Dr. Justin Lancaster. Dr. Lancaster then pressured to suppress the reprint of “What to Do About Greenhouse Warming: Look Before you Leap” co-authored by Dr. Roger Revelle. That article which questioned greenhouse warming as too uncertain to justify drastic action, was to be republished in anthology edited by Dr. Richard Geyer.

    Of course the fact that Gore had used Dr. Revelle in a cite to authority to justify his cap and trade scheme in his 1992 book Earth in the Balance had noting to do with the attempted suppression.

    But you missed some other points. The Jesuits were also involved, were they not? And about the inquisition, that collection of control freak religious zealots? That was a political organization operating at the behest of the King and Queen of Spain. You know, the Spanish inquisition.

    Your assertion that there is no PROOF in science is just silly. Of course there is proof. The basic experiment to prove or disprove a theory. Like the experiments Galileo devised and any could do. The ones Galileo’s fellow “natural philosophers” wanted to suppress.

    • spam i am

      John repeating an experiment does not prove a theory true. It simply validates that the theory is not false. This is the issue with the climate skeptics. They raise a lot of what-ifs, but have not been able to dislodge the theory. And they have not been able to come up with any alternative theory that has any test.

      You are way off base with your comparison of Gore to the inquisition.

    • John in Oregon

      Dean (Spam) I will grant that newspeak seems to come naturally to you. Just the same you are far from the master, more about that later.

      > *repeating an experiment does not prove a theory true*

      This statement is fallacious on several levels.

      First. The combustion of hydrogen in the presence of oxygen and detecting water vapor in the resulting gas is an assertive demonstration that the theory that the components of water are oxygen and hydrogen is true.

      Second. Repeating an experiment tests the description of the experiment and accounting for variables within an experiment. Repeatability tests the experiment and not the theory. Inability to repeat an experiment and get the same results invalidates the experiment as a proof and not the theory. Failure to repeat simply means that experimental proof no longer exists.

      For example the experiment underlying Fleischmann / Pons. When the experiment was not repeatable the experiment was invalidated as a proof of Fleischmann / Pons. That is experimental proof of the theory of cold fusion no longer existed.

      Did this prove cold fusion false. Not exactly, a new more carefully constructed and controlled experiment could be constructed which demonstrates cold fusion could be found repeatable. However until such time the theory remains undemonstrated.

      However your selective use of both sides of the same discussion is remarkable. On the one hand you assert that Galileo could / can not demonstrate his observations by experiment. All the while you also hold that AGW theory can not be demonstrated false by experiment.

      One thing is true, an experiment can not be conducted by randomly dialing in world wide levels of CO2. Indeed its not clear that were such possible that doing so would be wise.

      However there is one experiment of sorts available. Several experimental models have been constructed and “validated” by past observation. According to the makers all are demonstrated valid. The fact that several such models all claim to describe the same physical system is suspicious in and of its self suspicious.

      But ignoring that, the real test is do any accurately predict moving forward into the future. That answer is no. The after the fact explanation for the failure is the observations are due to this variable or that condition. The failure to account for some variable is at the heart of invalidation by lack of repeatability. The screeching of Gore and Hansen about tipping points and death trains not with standing. Proof of the AGW theory remains undemonstrated.

      Dean I said earlier you are not the master of newspeak. That honor belongs to President Obama.

      Yesterday the media noted Obama announced the lifting of the ban on stem cell research and the banning if cloning. I have heard his statement and it is remarkable. I can see why Obama needs the teleprompter, the statement is intricate and complex.

      So lets disassemble Obama’s announcement.

      1] Obama lifted President Bush’s ban on stem cell research.
      — False, President Bush’s order only dealt with embryonic stem cell research, not adult stem cell research.

      2] So Obama really meant that he lifted the Bush ban on embryonic stem cell research.
      — Again false. The Bush order did not apply to existing cell lines, only new research lines.

      3] Then Obama probably meant he lifted the Bush ban on new embryonic stem cell research.
      — False again. The Bush order did not apply to private research, only government funding of new research lines

      4] Well Obama must have meant that he lifted the Bush ban on government funding of new new embryonic stem cell research lines.
      — Correct, so why didn’t Obama say that?

      There is more;

      1] Obama banned Human reproductive cloning.
      — False, the order only applies to Government funding.

      2] So Obama really meant he banned Government funding of Human reproductive cloning.
      — False, President Bush’s order had addressed that.

      3] Then Obama must have meant he restated the Bush ban of Government funding of Human reproductive cloning.
      — Again false. President Bush’s order addressed all cloning.

      4] Well then Obama must have meant he lifted the Bush ban on cloning funding and only kept the ban on funding of cloning for reproduction. All other cloning funding would be permitted.
      — Correct, so why didn’t Obama say that?

      Also, Obama framed the debate as science verses ethics which is fallacious. The debate is between ethical science verses unethical science and deciding which actions are ethical science and which are unethical science. Science does not stand above ethics as Obama said. Science is a tool that can be used in both ethical and unethical ways.

      • Spam I am

        Well you put your finger on it. We have one earth…one atmosphere. We can’t conduct a planet-scale experiment, so scientists observe, measure, and model. They have measured the increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gasses, they have demonstrated in labs the radiative effect of greenhouse gasses, they have measured the increase in temperature over the past 150 or so years, they have measured glacial retreat and rising sea levels, and they have modeled future increases in temperature based on alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas accumulation. This I believe, along with a lot of accounting for other phenomena like ocean absorption, is what has amounted to AGW theory.

        Skeptics have to date (and not for lack of trying) been unable to show that:
        1) CO2 is not accumulating in the atmosphere
        2) This CO2 has a signature that clearly ties it to fossil fuels
        3) That the earth is warming
        4) That there is a mathematical relationship between these events
        5) And that additional accumulation of CO2 will lead to higher temperatures, expressed as a range depending on some variables.

        And they have been unable to offer any verifiable alternative explanation for these phenomena.

        Of course…all this warming could end up being good for us, or not much harm. That is the newest and latest case made by Lomborg, Michaels and others isn’t it? What’s the big deal? Palm trees in Canada might not be so bad.

        Anything….anything is better than allowing government to reach into our wallets and attempt to solve this problem right John?

      • John in Oregon

        > * Well you put your finger on it. We have one earth… We can’t conduct a planet-scale experiment.*

        I agree that experimentally dialing down the CO2 levels near the claimed pre-industrial levels would be exceedingly dangerous. The claimed level around 250 / 275 PPM is just slightly above the 175 / 225 PPM when plant synthesis stops. We sure as hell don’t need a planet wide die off of plant life.

        > *They have measured the increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gasses*

        Very true. 150 years ago thousands of accurate chemical measurements were made of atmospheric CO2. I have seen the table of those and noticed something interesting. Of the thousands of measurement, the ones used to claim pre-industrial CO2 levels were low few were based on a few of the lowest of the thousands of measurements. Of course the bulk of the measurement show a average around 300 / 325 but that doesn’t make today’s 375 / 385 look very alarming.

        You say there isnt an alternative theory. Oh really? How about this one. Climate get warmer and cooler naturally and will do so in the future. Like the climate was warmer during the Roman warming period then got cooler. Then warmer again during the medieval warming period and cooler again during the little ice age. Then it got warmer until the Dalton minimum. Then it got warmer and now its getting cooler.

        > *Skeptics have to date .. been unable to show that CO2 is not accumulating in the atmosphere.*

        Why would a rational person want to do that? CO2 accumulates and dissipates. It goes up and down. It has in the past and it will in the future. At the moment CO2 levels are at historic lows. Its been much higher in the past and the average level is much higher than today.

        > *Skeptics have to date .. been unable to show This CO2 has a signature that clearly ties it to fossil fuels.*

        I think you really meant have been unable to disprove the signature. That signature by the way is isotopic, assuming fossil CO2 is one isotope and “natural” another. First that assumption has never been validated, ancient CO2 from the ocean has never been tested. But then there is this question. The numbers suggest more than can justified by the know human fossil contribution. Oh well back to the drawing broads on that.

        > *Skeptics have to date .. been unable to show That the earth is warming.*

        Again I think you meant been unable to show the earth is not warming. Why would a rational person want to do that? Its obvious the earth has been getting warmer and cooler through all of history.

        > *Skeptics have to date .. been unable to show That there is a mathematical relationship between these events.*

        Which events? You didn’t say.

        > *Skeptics have to date .. been unable to show that additional accumulation of CO2 will lead to higher temperatures, expressed as a range depending on some variables.*

        Again I think you meant the converse. What range? What variables? I think you are referring to the climate models.

        Leland Teschlers in Machine Design raised an interesting point. Models are commonly used in mechanical design. In this field bad models bring dangerous results for real people.

        Leland was discussing banking risk models required by the increased regulation of the Basel II banking standards.

        He said, “Amid all the hand-wringing about financial systems in meltdown mode, the subject of modeling hasn’t gotten a lot of notice. Banks and other financial institutions employed legions of Ph.D. mathematicians and statistics specialists to model the risks those firms were assuming under a variety of scenarios. The point was to avoid taking on obligations that could put the company under.”

        Those models obviously failed which suggests the obvious question. ‘Did the quantitative analysts who came up with ineffective financial models lose their jobs in the aftermath? Groenendaal [a financial expert] just laughs at this idea. “I have a feeling they will do fine. If you are a bank and you fire your whole risk-analysis department, I don’t think that would be viewed positively,” he says.’

        And then came the parting shot of the article. “We might add there is one other similarity he [Groenendaal] didn’t mention: *It is doubtful anyone was ever fired for screwing up a climate model.”*

        There are some other points that don’t get mentioned.

        For example that 150 year long temperature record based on weather stations.

        The weather stations near hot air conditioning compressors and in hot parking lots.

        The temperature record “adjusted” by Hansen. The one that makes the 1930s colder and the late 90s diverges hotter from the satellite and UK Met records. The laughing stock record.

        Or the IPCC simulations using out dated solar forcings.

        Or the carbon tracking satellite that was to track carbon movement because we don’t really know where carbon comes and goes. But, the science is settled.

        Oh how about Michael Mann of failed hockey stick fame claiming Antarctica is warmer by postulating what a non existent weather station might have recorded. All the while mistaking ice station Harry for another and all the while using Harry data while it was buried in show.

        But there is James Hansen saying “The hardest part is trying to influence the nature of the measurements obtained…”

        And. The Arctic Ivory Gull Seen in Massachusetts – first time in over a century as they range south due to the cold.

        While the 10.7 centimeter solar radio flux is flatlining and the Ap Magnetic Index is the lowest know.

        Lastly. Correlation demonstrated between cosmic rays and temperature of the stratosphere.

        There is lots more but that should do for now.

        • Spam I am

          John, you are simply recycling all the old skeptic arguments. Temperature readings thrown off by parking lots? Please. Its a myth debunked long ago. The alternative theory being it is all about natural fluctuations? Sorry…the observed temperature change is consistent (over decades) and rapid. “Its natural” is not a verifiable alternative theory.

          CO2 goes up or down over a period of many centuries, not mere decades. We are burning up fossil carbon that has been deeply stored underground for eons. The earth has not done that previously, or at least not within human existence.

          What you have John…is a whole lotta nothing. Climate modelers could turn out to be wrong, and that would be great for us. In the meantime, we should assume they are right and act prudently but steadily. At worst we will wean ourselves off of foreign oil and dirty coal.

        • John in Oregon

          > *recycling all the old skeptic arguments. Temperature readings thrown off by parking lots?*

          By this do you mean that the bad weather stations have been fixed? Or

          Do you mean that weather stations are not located in parking lots and near heat sources? Or

          Do you mean the problems like this don’t mater because they don’t cause errors?

          For your information the survey of US weather stations is 70 percent complete and found that 69 percent of the stations were in error by 3 degrees or more. The exact information is below.

          70 percent of stations surveyed as of 2/5/09
          Rating – Error ———- Percent of stations
          CRN-1 – < 1 degree ----- 3 Percent
          CRN-2 - >=1 degree —- 8 Percent
          CRN-3 – >=2 degree —- 20 Percent
          CRN-4 – >=3 degree —- 58 Percent
          CRN-5 – >=5 degree —- 11 Percent

          Its true the direct CO2 measurements were 150 to 200 years ago. However that does not make the selective use of data, ie only that that supports the warmest argument, any less real.

          Are you arguing that GISS drifting up from the other three temperature records isnt happening? Or

          Are you saying that the other three which are in general agreement are the ones in error. Or

          Are you telling us that James Hansen is right and all others wrong?

          > *CO2 goes up or down over a period of many centuries, not mere decades*

          And you know this how? None of the proxies have the kind of resolution to show decade, let alone year level information.

          > *We are burning up fossil carbon that has been deeply stored underground for eons.*

          So? How does less than 1% cause a doubling of CO2 PPM?

          > *The alternative theory being it is all about natural fluctuations? Sorry… _the observed temperature change is consistent (over decades)_ *

          Oh really? Don’t you mean two decades to be exact. 1980s and 90s, then flat and now down for 2000-09. The Medieval Warming Period lasted may decades longer. And I thought the IPCC was running around saying the rate of increase was increasing. Silly you.

          > *the observed temperature change is consistent (over decades) and rapid.*

          How much and how rapidly over 20 years? If you want rapid I would nominate the onset of the little ice age where vineyards became glacialiation in short decades.

          As to > * recycling all the old skeptic arguments*

          *O* The IPCC simulations using out dated solar forcings — February 09

          *O* The carbon tracking satellite that was to track carbon movement because we don’t really know where carbon comes and goes. — February 09

          *O* Michael Mann claiming Antarctica is warmer while ice station Harry is buried in snow. January to February 09

          *O* The Arctic Ivory Gull Seen in Massachusetts – first time in over a century — January 09

          *O* The 10.7 centimeter solar radio flux and the Ap Magnetic Index. — November 08 to February 09

          *O* Correlation demonstrated between cosmic rays and temperature of the stratosphere. — February 09

          Dean, state facts and show a basis for your assertions.

  • John in Oregon

    David, RE thread 6.1.2

    Nice change the subject move. But that’s fine, I don’t mind.

    I did notice you reframed the question from cost of production to the expense to the end user. However your question prompted me to notice a manipulative aspect I hadn’t considered.

    Since the SB 838 circuit breaker is based on exceeding a 4% increase to end user expense, the legislature could just pass a law. Limiting the rates of the “evil” power company ought to be politically popular. Come to think of it the Oregon PUC could just set the green power rate at 3.9%, wave the magic wand don’t you know.

    Let me anticipate your response, “that would never happen”. Oh really? Just consider the California Electricity Crisis. Here is how that worked.

    First, by law California required the power companies to sell all production capacity and cancel firm power contracts.

    Next, California created a new bureaucracy to buy power each day on the spot market. The spot market is where power companies trade power during unusual demand situations such as heat waves.

    Sooo now we have the bizarre situation of one Californian Government agency telling the power company what it would pay for power, while another agency, the California PUC set the rate the power company sold the power for.

    I can see the wheels turn. They wouldn’t do that to the power company. California wouldn’t make power companies sell power at less than what California made them buy power. Never. Not ever. Well, not until California did exactly that.

    Lets move on to the discussion of the cost of green power.

    First the PPL green power initiative. You aren’t so silly as to think that a 10% premium is all that green power costs, are you? Do you think that energy expense to you is the true cost of green power?

    Your expense was the true cost of green power;

    after the Federal subsidy is deducted, and

    after the State subsidy is subtracted, and

    after the Energy Trust of Oregon subsidy is taken out, and

    after PPLs PR expense contribution is removed.

    David, You don’t think that in today’s economy Government can increase those subsidies by 25 times current spending do you?

    As to the real costs of green power you can look that up your self. But keep in mind that for both solar and wind an equal amount of conventional generating capacity must be constructed to supply power when green power is off line. Like for example on a hot and calm summer night.

    Unless the Government has the power to reach out and shut off your air conditioning and turn off your lights when green power is short. That would be like, oh I don’t know, Cuba under Fidel Castro. The Government would never do that.

    Ohh wait. That’s exactly what the “smart grid” is all about.

  • David Appell

    John, *all* energy prices the consumer pays are after federal subsidies, state subsidies, and other subsidies are taken out.

    “Green energy” is hardly the only industry to get such subsidies. Gas and oil do as well — tens of billions of dollars worth. (Not even to mention what we are spending to takeover Iraq and its oil fields.)

    Your objection goes both ways.

    • John in Oregon

      David:

      You don’t justify bad economic policy by pointing to other bad economic policy.

      I also note that once examined the “evil oil company” subsidies mostly turn out to be things like allowing deduction of expenses or Congressional coercion to get the companies to do something Government.

  • getaclue

    Sea levels are predicted to rise twice as fast as was forecast by the United Nations only two years ago, threatening hundreds of millions of people with catastrophe, scientists said yesterday in a dramatic new warning about climate change. Rapidly melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are likely to push up sea levels by a metre or more by 2100, swamping coastal cities and obliterating the living space of 600 million people who live in deltas, low-lying areas and small island states.

    Low-lying countries with increasing populations, such as Bangladesh, Burma and Egypt, could see large parts of their surface areas vanish. Experts in Bangladesh estimate that a one-metre rise in sea levels would swamp 17 per cent of the country’s land mass. Pacific islands such as Tuvalu, where 12,000 people live just a few feet above sea level, and the Maldives, would face complete obliteration.

    Even Britain could face real challenges in lower-lying areas along the east coast, from Lincolnshire to the Thames estuary, with a much greater risk of catastrophic “storm surges” such as the great flood of 1953 that killed 307 people.

    Yesterday’s urgent wake-up call to governments about global warming – telling them the data on which they are basing their official advice is flawed – came from four scientists from the US, Australia, France and Germany, who gave a press conference at a scientific meeting on climate change in Copenhagen, Denmark.

    Professor Konrad Steffen, from the University of Colorado, Dr John Church, of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research in Tasmania, Dr Eric Rignot, of Nasa’s jet propulsion laboratory in Pasadena, and Professor Stefan Rahmsdorf, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, are all experts in sea-level rise. Their views represent the mainstream opinion of researchers in the field, taking account of the most recent data.

    Only two years ago, the UN’s Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in its Fourth Assessment Report, or AR4, that the worst-case prediction for global sea-level rise was 59cm by 2100. But the scientists in Copenhagen suggested that the 2007 report was a drastic underestimation of the problem, and that oceans were likely to rise twice as fast.

    Yesterday’s meeting was a scientific overture to the global conference on climate change, which takes place in the Danish capital in December. The four researchers underlined how critical it is that world leaders act to slash the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from industry and transport which are causing the atmosphere to overheat.

    Advance negotiations begin in three weeks in Bonn. On pages 20 and 21, we illustrate in detail just how great the task is, profiling the main emitters of CO2 and what they are doing – or not doing – to cut back. Yesterday’s alarm call was clearly intended to inject more urgency into the process.

    Rising sea levels are caused by the thermal expansion of the ocean – where water increases in volume as it warms. But although the melting of ice already floating in the sea does not add to the level, because it is already displacing its own mass, melting into the sea of land-based ice most definitely does.

    It is the accelerated melting of the vast, land-based ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, caused by rapidly rising temperatures at high latitudes, which is now speeding up the increase beyond anything previously forecast. The Greenland ice sheet, in particular, is not simply melting but melting “dynamically” – that is, it is collapsing in parts as meltwater seeps down through crevices and speeds up its disintegration. Critically, the four scientists said, this process was not taken into account in the AR4 report, leading to estimates of sea-level increase which were far too low.

    They revealed remarkable figures showing just how fast it is now happening. Professor Steffen said Greenland was losing 200 to 300 cubic-kilometres of ice into the sea each year – about the same amount as all the ice in Arctic Europe. This on its own is causing the global sea level to rise by more than a millimetre a year, he added, whereas a decade ago Greenland’s contribution to sea level rise was non-existent.

    Dr Church said that the most recent satellite and in situ data showed seas were now rising by more than 3mm a year – more than 50 per cent faster than the average for the 20th century.

    “As a result of improved estimates of the observed rise, the thermal expansion, the melting of the glaciers and of the ice sheets, we now have a much better quantitive understanding of why sea level is rising,” he said. “Without significant, urgent and sustained emissions reductions, we will cross a threshold which will lead to continuing sea level rise of metres.”

    Professor Steffen added: “What we have learnt in the past three or four years is that the ice dynamic is much stronger than the models indicated, and the prediction has to be revised up to a metre or more – which is enormous if you look at the impact.”

    Britain’s Environment Agency was apparently unique when it discarded the IPCC’s 2007 advice as flawed. Based on its own estimates, it is planning flood defences for 2100 on the basis of a one-metre rise in sea levels – with a “worst-case scenario” of 2.7 metres.

    “These startling new predictions spell disaster for millions of the world’s poorest people,” said Rob Bailey, Oxfam’s policy adviser on climate change. “Poor coastal communities in countries such as Bangladesh are already struggling to cope with a changing climate, and it can only get worse. This must be a wake-up call for rich countries who are not doing anywhere near enough to prevent these cataclysmic predictions from becoming a reality.”

    • spam i am

      Oh come on now. All that gloom & doom would bore people to tears at a cocktail party! Don’t worry….be happy. Burn it up, use it up, sell the beachfront condo to a loser, and invest in higher ground.

    • jim karlock

      *getaclue:* Sea levels are predicted to rise twice as fast as was forecast by the United Nations
      *JK:* Predicted by who?

      *getaclue:* Rapidly melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica
      *JK:* No they aren’t. Don’t get suckered by Al Gore’s lies.

      *getaclue:* Yesterday’s urgent wake-up call . . . came from four scientists from the US, Australia, France and Germany, who gave a press conference at a scientific meeting on climate change in Copenhagen, Denmark.
      *JK:* It is a meeting designed to panic politicians into unwise action. GW is only an excuse to give vast sums of money to favored groups.

      *getaclue:* The Greenland ice sheet, in particular, is not simply melting but melting “dynamically”
      *JK:* It is NOT.

      *getaclue:* Dr Church said that the most recent satellite and in situ data showed seas were now rising by more than 3mm a year – more than 50 per cent faster than the average for the 20th century.
      *JK:* You probably haven’t bothered to look at any data or facts beyond the hucksters like Al Gore, but the oceans have been rising since the end of the last ice age. The last century we rose 8 inches. This prediction of 12 inches (3 mm/yr) is just a little more than the present rate and is *only a prediction.* The reality will probably be 8 inches or less.

      *getaclue:* These startling new predictions
      *JK:* Notice the word: *Predictions* Like Hansen’s failed prediction of warming issued 20 years ago. It didn’t happen. See: sustainableoregon.com/theon.html

      Hey fellow: you’re being played for a sucker by AL Gore and his fellow hucksters – Get a Clue!
      Thanks
      JK

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