Allen Alley Already?

by Tim Lyman Thursday, April 23. 2009

If anyone had told me there could be a less exciting candidate for Governor than Ron Saxton, I never would have believed it. But, over a year and a half out from the election, the Oregon Republican establishment is already lining up behind Allen Alley.

Saxton and Alley are both highly capable men who would make good governors. Both men know the halls of business and of Salem. Both men are veteran dealmakers who can work both sides of the political aisle. Both men, one on one, are personable and engaging.

Neither man, however, has that elusive “˜star quality.’

A candidate needs three things to win an election — money, an excited base to beat the streets, and charisma. If your party has a significant lead in voter registrations you can get by on two, or sometimes even one, of the three.

In 2006 Democrats outnumbered Republicans by only 60,000 in Oregon, but Saxton just didn’t have the charisma or a base excited enough to move enough of the state’s 434,000 non affiliated voters his way. Ted Kulongoski may be boring as hell, but one of the advantages of being a union stooge (provided you don’t miss your immortal soul) is access to virtually unlimited union dollars and footsoldiers.

With Democrats now outnumbering Republicans 930,000 to 692,000 it’s going to take a lot more than one helluva a voter registration drive to deliver the governor’s office to the Republicans in 2010. It’s going to take most of the state’s 431,000 non-affiliated voters. Even if Oregon continues to have unemployment five points higher than the national rate, it’s going to take a candidate with the charisma of Barak Obama or Sarah Palin to excite the base and win over independents.

The election is over a year and a half off, the primary is over a year away and there’s only one declared Republican candidate. Isn’t it a little too soon to be lining up behind a candidate?

Posted by Tim Lyman at 06:00 | Posted in Measure 37 | 36 Comments | Email This Post | Print This Post

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ANONYMOUS

Allen Alley? Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
devietro

I met Mr. Alley when he ran for State Treasurer. I agree with you whole heatedly. One on one there is NO question that he has the skills for the job and that I would be PROUD to vote for him. But he cant win, no jazz no sparkle.

Secondly there is a bigger issue at play here, actually two.

In the Obama years, charisma and ability to motivate people who dont pay attention to politics is key. President Obama won a lot of votes by saying nothing very well. Lets take a lesson from this find a politician who does THAT but has the secret weapon of actually knowing how government is suppose to work.

The second issue, is that I am very tired of the same Republicans running for statewide position after statewide position until the win one. Lets not forget that a certain individual who could have easily won the AG spot gave up that to run for CD5 because it had more prestige.

I would be willing to vote for politician that gets people off their butts and interested in politics even if he or she was not perfect on all the issues because I am naive enough to belief that if some of those 431k unaffiliated voters knew what was going on in Oregon they would start screaming.
- Elm
  
  C’mon. He made a great showing against Westlund in a tough race. He can do it.
  - eagle eye
    
    You may be right. Anyhow, who do these guys have that is better?
UB

Heard Alley on Lars’ show Apr 22. Interesting dialogue. He might be a Harry S. Truman those DEM DEWEY types take for granted.
- Tim Lyman
  
  Truman was a Democrat and Dewey a Republican
  - UB
    
    Write on – and the difference is?
Jack

Alley come on next Candidate Please
Anonymous

Alley has already disqualified himself by supporting cap and trade.

Any Republican who supports any of the left wing global warming movement is toast.
Suburban Soccer Mom

Okay, Tim. If not Alley… than whom? I disagree with you that it is too early to line up behind a candidate. I think Alley is an excellent candidate. I just don’t see anyone else emerging that can raise the enormous amount of money that will be needed to be competitive??? I’m curious to see who you are suggesting to line up behind?
Garage Wine

Is this the same Allen Alley that acted as Gov. Kulongoski’s hatchet man to drive Ralph Shaw off the state’s Council of Economic Advisers?
- Anonymous
  
  Right on! If I wanted some little weasel with his nose up Kulongoski’s butt, then I’d vote Democrat.
Anonymous

Like lemmings to the cliff…

I’d love to see the Republicans nominate Alley. It will guarantee undervoting by the base AND some right wing nutcase entering the race as a third party candidate and splitting off 5-10% of your vote. Kitzhaber will still get 60% of the vote, but it will be nice to see a “moderate” Republican wind up with only 30%.
Anonymous

Listen up Suburban Soccer Mom,

I suggest you get Alley to bone up on the democrat global warming movement and all the left wing causes it represents.

He hasn’t a chance unless he does. You want to line up behind someone who’s not an enabler of the left.
MANY Republicans like me will agressively attack any Republican who sides with the liberal swindle AGW, cap and trade and the many other lefty policies it will deliver.
- Surburban Soccer Mom
  
  Listen up yourself Anonymous,
  I know exactly what Republicans like YOU do.
  You label and you divide. And you often spread untruths. Just because someone posts in a comment that Alley is pro Cap and Trade, doesn’t make it a fact. He is a smart, accomplished candidate who will get our state back on track with policies that will create jobs and put people back to work. If you are going to attack someone, go attack the big government job killers on the other side. They’re the ones that are about to raise your taxes and will continue to deliver their lefty policies.
Anonymous

Look Mom,

You don’t seem to know what you are talking about.

Alley has stated publicly, on the air at least twice when I heard him, that he supports a cap and trade system.
A poorly thought out position for him since he also stated he, as an engineer, has serious doubts about AGW.

I suggest you contact him and get him straightened out, fast.

I am not spreading any untruth.

I accept that Allen is a smart, accomplished candidate. But he has to dump his cap and trade support and become a staunch opponent, period.

Either he has a misunderstanding of cap and trade and the severity of the Lefty AGW movement that pushes it or he is not a conservative.

Perhaps you yourself don’t understand how many left wing causes are riding the AGW movement and what that means.

Alley is not going to get elected as a Republican if he aligns with or enables any of it. So he won’t be getting our state back on track if he supports cap and trade.

Frankly I don’t get how you view my comments as an attack. The AGW movement is a massive attack and the cap and trade policy Alley supports is one of their major big government weapons.

So I am attacking big government by attacking AGW and cap and trade. And the tax increases, lefty policies, job losses and high energy prices that will come with it.
And any Republican candidate who sides in the slightest with that Democrat agenda center piece will be DOA.
Disqualified On Arrival.

It appears that you don’t know what Alley’s position is, but if you know that Alley has changed his mind on cap and trade let’s hear it and I’ll apologize.
- tweetie bird
  
  Newt Gingrich says global warming is the real deal. Is he also a leftie?
Joe B.

I tuned in and thought I had come to Blue Oregon. My bad.
Anonymous

Tweety-dean-bird,

Why do you lefties always beat around the Bush. Are you suggesting something.
Newt Gingrich can say anything he wants. His joining the AGW movement is a blunder. So what? No that doesn’t make him a lefty. It makes him duped and wrong. Maybe he got lazy and didn’t do enough homework.
Allen isn’t a lefty either. He’s just wrong about a very criticial issue.

The fact is every single elected Democrat and lefty in the country
is a AGW loon. Either by faith, belief, allegiance or fear of retribution if they dissent.
Few Republicans and less conservatives who bother to study the issue have anything but contempt for the movement.
Recognizing what it is.

Joe B. ,

Blue Oregon is good place to get the loony left dose of AGW and cap and trade, CO2 alarmists agenda garbage.
Every one of them at BO are in the fever pitch to save the planet from the imaginary AGW by adopting every cockamamie left wing program and policy imaginable.

It’s fraud and it’s enormous.
Bob Clark

I think Larry George, who debates mrs. “biddy” genny Burdick on the radio, would be a good republican candidate for govenor.

I have to agree about the ability to win without charisma if you’ve got union dollars backing you. This would explain how Kate Brown and Dianne Rosenbaum rose to their current ranks. Regarding these two, I bet you bottom dollar very few people in their districts know who these two politicians are despite the fact they’ve been in office for a decade or more.
- anonymous
  
  Katie Brown for sure doesn’t even know who she is.
Anonymous

Governor George would be real and he’s magnificent.
KFC

Republicans nominated Bob Dole and they got clobbered. Republicans nominated John McCain and they got clobbered.
Republicans nominated Ron Saxton and they got clobbered, and he had more money than anyone has ever had on either side of the aisle.

Anyone see a pattern here?

If Republicans nominate milktoast Allen Alley, the outcome is predictable. The base will stay home. Why vote for a Republican who is soft enough to be on Ted Kulongoski’s staff and in his inner circle?
- eagle eye
  
  Who do suggest instead? Bill Sizemore? A Kevin Mannix rerun?
Anonymous

I’ve heard that Jason Atkinson is making noises about running. I don’t know much about him. Seems conservative.
Anonymous

Eagle eye,
That was a perfect example of how stupid and disingenuous you libs really are.
There’s not an active R in the state who would suggest either of those, and you knew that when you coughed up that question.

You’re too stupid to recognize many would support a run by George or a few others like him.
Yet you and yours persist in trying to define Republicans and conservatives for us.
Your blend of ignorance, dishonesty and sleazy politics that generates your endless misrepresentations has developed a stench
that precedes your obnoxious noisemaking.
You’ve become so predictable conservatives can smell you long before you get to spewing your tripe.
- eagle eye
  
  Well, thanks for the gracious remarks, you certainly make me eager to learn more about your candidate. Who is George? You mean Larry George? I’ve barely heard of him, I hope he’s a real charmer. You really think he has a chance? Like people once thought Bill Sizemore had a chance? Like they once thought Kevin Mannix had a chance? Tell us more about your candidate, please.
Anon R

Alley? No way! Elitist out of touch RINO.

He does support Cap & Trade, which will increase energy costs.

He does support “Free” trade, which has resulted in millions of jobs going to China, India & Mexico.

He does support Amnesty for Illegal’s, even with record high unemployment, resulting in over 16 million Americans now forced to compete with happy to get any paycheck workers, that should not be here.
Anonymous

eagle eye,

Are you just a routine lib of what?

You trip all over yourself beating around the bush and playing phony games.

You’re not eager to learn or interested in learning anything about any R candidate. You’re just making preemptive and mindless comparisions to Sizemore.
Then you ask who George is, then say you know who George is but then have to add you’ve barely heard of him. That was supposed to mean something?

“You hope he is a real charmer” ?

No you don’t. That was just another stupid line meant to say something else. Do you think posturing your remarks like that make YOU gracious or clever? It doesn’t.

Another stupid remark “tell us more about your candidate, please”.
Yeah right, that’s what you want.

Here’s a test.
Candidate A is a bright, conservative Republican with strong conservative principals and along track record of business experience and leadership.

Now comes your pathetic and deliberate misrepresentation of what a conservative Republican is and why they can’t win.

Who is the us you are talking for anyway? The OEA?
- eagle eye
  
  Anonymous, you’re really winning me over now, especially the part about calling me stupid.
  
  I guess you’re right about conservative Republicans in Oregon, that’s why so many have won statewide elections the past 20 years. I had thought the list included names like Sizemore, Mannix, … thanks for setting me straight.
  
  I will eagerly cast my vote for Candidate A. You’ve sealed it for me!
  - Suburban Soccer Mom
    
    Anonymous,
    Even if you had Candidate A- bright, conservative Republican with strong conservative principals and a long track record of business experience and leadership… you would still find some litmus test issue that you disagree with. The reality is that many of the litmus test issues are low on the list of what the electorate cares about, or you’re simply wrong about where the candidate stands. And don’t tell me there are not people trolling the blogs to make these untruthful comments, because I see it happen all the time.
    Until Republicans put forth a candidate that they are NOT going to tear apart on arrival, we’re going to continue to end up with the left loons.
    If you want to get your point across about Cap and Trade, talk to Alley. Don’t just complain about it on the blogs.
    And Larry George is a very good senator… definitely one to watch. But I don’t think he’ll throw his hat in the ring for Gov, just yet.
    - Anonymous
      
      You’re asking people not to be political about politics. It’s all part of the process. These conversations/arguments within the party will always occur. Rather than being destructive or divisive they are a necessary and healthy part of the debate among allies.
Anonymous

Mom,

I guess you didn’t read up thread.
I heard two discussions with Alley withhim explaining his support for cap and trade.

I suggest you call him. You’re the one making untruth comments here about his Cap and Trade position.
And the AGW movement is no routine litmus test to be discounted.

It’s a massive collection of aggresive leftist causes riding the fraud of global warming.
Just a thought

To perk up his ‘star quality’ – candidate Alley might ‘theme’ along the lines of The Kingston Trio’s – Ally Ally Oxen Free?
- Just a little more thought
  
  More on the Kingston Trio (of 50 yrs ago) to remind US what’s still write up (or down) our alley:
  They’re rioting in Africa. They’re starving in Spain. There’s hurricanes in Florida, and Texas needs rain.
  The whole world is festering with unhappy souls. The French hate the Germans, the Germans hate the Poles.
  Italians hate Yugoslavs, South Africans hate the Dutch. And I don’t like anybody very much!
  But we can be tranquil and thankful and proud, for man’s been endowed with a mushroom-shaped cloud.
  And we know for certain that some lovely day, someone will set the spark off… and we will all be blown away.
  They’re rioting in Africa. There’s strife in Iran. What nature doesn’t do to us… will be done by our fellow man.
That which grows on trees

Trust me, Atkinson is going to get in. He’s going to win.

Alley is weaksauce. And his support for cap-and-trade is going to kill any support.

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