Poll: 2010 Govenor match-up

New Moore Information poll here:


While some political pundits and Democrat leaders would have you believe that Oregon Republican candidates have no future in statewide office, in fact, the 2010 race for Governor will be competitive, as our latest poll shows.

We matched Republican Congressman Greg Walden against three of the leading potential Democrat candidates, and find Walden within four points of both John Kitzhaber and Peter DeFazio, and Walden actually leading Bill Bradbury by a four-point margin today. Statistically speaking, these results are within the margin of error associated with this sample size (+/- 4% at the 95% confidence level).

Importantly, Walden is enjoying the same level or greater party loyalty as the Democrat candidates are among their party faithful. Among the GOP, Walden’s net support against Kitzhaber is +66 points, against DeFazio he has a 58-point margin and against Bradbury, the GOP margin of support is +63 points. Likewise, among Democrats, Kitzhaber’s margin is 57 points over Walden, while DeFazio’s margin is 56 points and Bradbury’s margin over Walden is only 44 points among Democrats. Independents are divided in both the Walden/Kitzhaber and Walden/DeFazio matchups, but Walden has a 14-point advantage with Independents when paired against Bill Bradbury.

Regionally, Walden is the favorite in all three matchups among voters residing in the Eastern, Southern and Coastal regions of the state, while the Democrats are favored in the Portland tri-county region, with Multnomah County being the greatest source of support for Democrat candidates. In the Willamette Valley, however, Walden is in a statistical dead heat against both DeFazio and Kitzhaber, and leads Bradbury in this region by 10 points. Please feel free to call or email with any questions.

— See full breakdown data here at Moore Information poll here:

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Posted by at 06:01 | Posted in Measure 37 | 14 Comments |Email This Post Email This Post |Print This Post Print This Post
  • Rupert in Springfield

    Yay – Walden actually polls ahead of the most certifiably partisan politician I’ve ever seen hold office anywhere. That’s good.

    I’m kind of stunned people seem slightly less enamored of DeFazio than they do of Kitzhaber. I would have thought a reasonably well like congressman would do better than a reasonably liked guy who has already held the office.

    Frankly anyone would be better than Ted. I just can’t take Mr. “Fascinated by Technology” sitting around telling me he is unwilling to cut pay raises, so I have to take a pay cut. At least Kitzhaber was reasonably photogenic and had the unique quality of being able to pull off a western cut suit without looking like an absolute ass.

  • Beaverton Working Guy

    Sorry, Rupert, but with a Democrat controlled legislature, which is Kitzhaber’s wet dream and the lack thereof his excuse for being a flop the first time around, th former governor would be a very dangerous man.

    His arrognace has only increased with age and his craving for “legacy” will make him perhaps the most dangerous governor in the country. Kitzhaber may be smart, but his philosophy of government is way out there. Given another chance, he will put the finishing touches on the effort to make Oregon a Marxist state.

    • Rupert in Springfield

      Yeah, I’ll give you that Kitzhaber is a far smarter man than Ted. However as far as being an out there left wing guy, I think the move from Ted to Kitzhaber would be a lateral one in terms of philosophy. Yes, Kitzhaber, due to probably being a smarter guy at pushing his agenda, could be more disastrous for Oregon than Ted has been. Yes, with a Democratic super majority Kitzhaber would be able to turn the clock back with far more speed than the first time around. However given that Ted is busy waging an all out war against business in the middle of 12% unemployment its hard to see how Kitzhaber is fundamentally all that different from Ted philosophically. But one never does know does one?

      I was just in the liquor store yesterday. The place looked like it was something out of the old soviet system. The shelves were really picked over. I didn’t even have to ask when I went up to the cash register.

      “Yep, we had to really cut down on inventory, the OLC tax increase per bottle made our expenses go up so much we had to wait until the tax expired to restock”

      I sure hope those state workers enjoy their raises, we are all in it together for them.

      Sure wish when this “we are all in it together” crap came down the pike there were some of us in it together to write the check, not just cash it.

  • devietro

    1. I question these gaps, while Mr. Moore is a great guy his polls always tend to favor the GOP

    2. I feel that any known politician is going to be at a disadvantage, this actually bodes well for guys like Atkinson (if he is healthy enough) because he has low name ID outside the GOP activist realm.

    3. Politics are way to fickle to predict much now, yet again if a real conservative ran on real principles of limited government and personal responsibility they could win. As long as they don’t get over run by the super christian guys.

  • Anonymous

    Why would the red and blue be flip flopped?

    I mean who doesn’t associate red with Rs and Blue with Ds?

  • public servant

    Greg Walden starts out about where Saxton and Mannix did. Mannix couldn’t close the gap, Saxton widened it. Does Walden have the personality to do it?

  • wnd

    IMO, Greg Walden is absolute top notch and Peter DeFazio not half bad compared to the half fast Kulongoski, half wit Bradbury and half baked Kitzhaber.

    However, Gordon Smith may have something to say about Oregon’s leadership and I reckon common sensed Dems would recognize his private and public sector experience over the (post Aityeh) FAUX PAS attending Oregon’s economic progress, perhaps?

  • Richard

    It seems with similar polls over the years, the Republicamn losses with a slim margin.

    It is time to realize I need to get out of Ore-gone.

  • valley person

    Walden’s problem is that if the fairly significant realignment that happened in 08 holds, there will be several hundred thousand more Democrats registered in Oregon than Republicans. Increasing numbers of Hispanic and young voters will overwhelm the diminishing number of older white conservatives. So there will be a ceiling to how many voters Walden (or any other Republican) can get unless they tack pretty strongly to the center. And as we have seen time and again, that move would simply alienate the right and cause many of them to stay home or support a 3rd party.

    The Republicans only real hope in this state for the near term is a failure of Obama nationally, or a sustained failure here in Oregon. A continued lousy economy, inability to get health reform pased, a mounting deficit, and lack of resolution to some key foreign policy problems. If we make progress on these things, forget about Walden or anyone else.

    • Joey Link

      I agree with you regarding the realignment, but if conservatives need to rely on the failure of others to win races we really need to look at what we’re offering. Therein lies the real problem, we need to get back to our original message of smaller government, lower taxes, more personal responsibility, less government intervention, and more freedom. When was the last time you heard a candidate run on a platform like that? We need to put all the divisive issues such as religion and abortion on the back burner and win over those independents, conservative democrats, and young people who realize this government is failing because everyone in the game of politics has adopted a policy of of larger government, higher taxes, less personal responsibility, more government intervention, and less freedom.

      • valley person

        That sounds like more of a libertarian platform than a conservative one. If the Republican party ditches its socially conservative base, well tehy better find some new constituents in a hurry. Libertarians have done even less well electorially than Republican conservatives.

        Beyond that, as a collection of slogans its fine. But when it translates to phasing out social security and medicare you lose the vote of seniors. When it means defunding public education you lose young people and parents. And when the next economic collapse happens, less government is not so great to the unemployed.

        I’m a liberal so take my advice with a big grain of salt. But I think what is needed is a pragmatic conservatism that is focused on using conservative means to solve societal problems, as opposed to either pretending those problems do not exist or just telling people to solve all problems on their own. And it needs to be less angry and more inclusive.

      • Richard

        I think you are being too pragmatic to drop religion and abortion. To me both can be explain under a Classical Liberal idea that Government should not interfere with my religion or support an initial act of force against the unborn.
        The ideas of limited government and social conservatism do not need to be adversaries. The compromise for me is I will be allow to create and support institutions according to my beliefs so can the most depraved sinner, it just we will be free not to support each others institutions, and guarantee that other institutions will be allow to interfere with ours.

  • Bob Tiernan

    I wonder if Bradbury’s lower poll numbers compared to the other two Dems has anything to do with there being a number of Dem voters who now recognize that as Sec of State Bradbury was probably the least honest, and most partisan, one we’ve had in made a decade.

    Probably not. His re-election showed they didn’t really care.

    Bob Tiernan
    Portland

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