Governor Poll: Kitzhaber leads but vulnerable

Rasmusen Reports shows wild polling in Oregon’s governor race and matched up various candidates against each other. Full Poll here.

Chris Dudley (R) 36%
John Kitzhaber (D) 42%

John Lim (R) 38%
John Kitzhaber (D) 40%

Allen Alley (R) 34%
John Kitzhaber (D) 42%

Bill Sizemore (R) 25%
John Kitzhaber (D) 48%


Chris Dudley (R) 36%
Bill Bradbury (D) 39%

John Lim (R) 35%
Bill Bradbury (D) 38%

Allen Alley (R) 35%
Bill Bradbury (D) 41%

Bill Sizemore (R) 23%
Bill Bradbury (D) 48%

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Posted by at 07:39 | Posted in Measure 37 | 29 Comments |Email This Post Email This Post |Print This Post Print This Post
  • Frank

    At least with a real doctor at the helm we could straighten out all this health care stuff. Plus, he did a fine job before.
    I welcome back the denim cowboy.
    Ride tall brave man!
    Please help us save Oregon.
    Vote for John!
    Be strong.
    Be wise.
    Don’t vote for the other guys.

    • Anonymous

      I’d rather see John Kitzhaber run off I-5 and taken to one of his own emergency rooms…never to come out of a coma.

      • Kari Chisholm

        That’s kind of sick. Even if you disagree with him.

    • Pinkie

      a retread like Kitz is all the Dems have? Really? Pathetic. 8 years of him was enough once…we need someone that is willing to stand up to the unions, and the lobbyists and actually solve funding problems in this state. Grow up liberals OREGON needs better then doctor dippydontcare about helping Oregon get back on its financial feet again.

      We never had funding problems like this when we could log timber.

    • Kurtis

      You must be kidding. He did a GOOD JOB?!!! Dr. NO!!! who vetoed everything that was not to his personal liking. It is not a small wonder that Oregon Politics is at the point it is now with attitudes like that.

    • Anonymous

      actually, the Oregon Health Plan was pretty much made by Kitzhaber. So if the current situation is a mess, he made it.

      • Not a Nice Guy

        Sorry – you just FAILED Oregon history. The Oregon Health Plan was passed while Dr. No was in the Oregon Legislature – NOT when he was Governor. During his entire eigth years as Governor it’s hard to point out anything this waste of space accomplished.

  • Rupert in Springfield

    Kithaber is not vulnerable. The job is his for the asking. If he gets the nomination, he has won the race.

    At this stage of the game the Republicans stand a moderate to good chance of taking the US Senate. Its unlikely they will take the house, but the Pelosi leadership will be severely curtailed. With that as a background Oregon will steadfastly elect virtually any Democrat who runs for the governorship.

    Why is that?

    Simple. Oregon is a center left state with strong union control of the elections. For a Republican to win, he has to be an absolute dynamo in terms of campaigning and knowledge of the issues. For a Democrat to win he basically has to have a pulse and moderate control over drooling. A mere muttering of “Green jobs, Green jobs, teachers are underpaid” as a campaign slogan and you have already won 95% of the Democrat vote in Portland.

    • valley p

      “Kithaber is not vulnerable. The job is his for the asking. If he gets the nomination, he has won the race.”

      Aach de lieber! We agree on something. Although I have a hunch that Bradberry will beat Kitz in the primary. Just a hunch.

      “At this stage of the game the Republicans stand a moderate to good chance of taking the US Senate. ”

      We disagree. All is right in the world again. I’d put the odds at less than 25%. But what you need to ask Rupert, is so what? What if the Republicans end up with a 1 seat Senate majority? 2 of those majority senators are named Snowe and Collins, and another, Scott Brown, may be just as moderate given he has to be re-elected in Mass in 2012, and several of the new arrivals (those running) are also pretty moderate. What is the Republican agenda then? Is it the Tea Party agenda or something more moderate? They can’t just fillibuster themselves now can they? They would have to compromise with a Democratic House and President and actually be responsible for governing. That means actually cutting actual programs or actually raising actual taxes or forgetting about the horrible no good very bad deficit. Oh my God. Skulls would burst.

      • Rupert in Springfield

        >Although I have a hunch that Bradberry will beat Kitz in the primary. Just a hunch.

        Bradberry is more corrupt in a union suck up way, so you might be right.

        >We disagree. All is right in the world again. I’d put the odds at less than 25%.

        Well, considering your political instincts usually are dead wrong, Im suprised you even put it that way.

        Remember, you were the guy who thought we would have a health care bill by the end of last year.

        You also thought cap and trade had a chance in hell of passing.

        >But what you need to ask Rupert, is so what?

        We,, so what is it means your 40 year Democrat Reich that you were proclaiming just last November is kaput.

        If even you, Mr. 40 year Democratic Reich, say there is a 25% chance, thats astonishing.

    • Anonymous

      “A mere muttering of “Green jobs, Green jobs, teachers are underpaid” as a campaign slogan and you have already won 95% of the Democrat vote in Portland.”

      Yeah, 95% of democrats are stupid. 95% of democrats don’t know anything about anything. 95% of democrats aren’t the least bit thoughtful and certainly don’t have any real understanding of anything that actually matters. Yeah, democrats are stupid. That should be your campaign slogan, Rupert. You are a political mastermind.

      • eagle eye

        Yes, there are some real geniuses at figuring out how to turn potentially close elections into disasters. Ron Saxton was my favorite in recent memory.

        • Rupert in Springfield

          >Yes, there are some real geniuses at figuring out how to turn potentially close elections into disasters.

          Oh good lord.

          You don’t think this will be a close election at all. You like to pretend that there is a snowballs chance in hell it will be just so you will have the opportunity to knock Republicans when your Democrat buddies win.

          Get real, Id give you a five point spread on any Democrat beating any Republican you care to name.

          Id even give you two points on an indicted Democrat beating any Republican you name.

          Republicans simply haven’t done their ground work. After the brain dead efforts against 66/67 it simply strains credulity to think they will get it together any time soon. You know that, everyone knows that. You just want to pretend there is a chance of it being close so you can be in an “I told you so” position post election.

          Lurching into the obvious hardly bespeaks political acuity.

          • eagle eye

            I said “potentially close”. Meaning don’t do bonehead things like talking about firing public workers, when you need some of them to vote for you if you want to have a chance to win.

            A 5 pt. beginning spread is what I consider close. It means a gap that an unusually good candidate could fill. Someone better at the game than Kevin Mannix, who was a good man. Someone like Gordon Smith or Dave Frohnmayer (without a conservative spoiler fouling things as happened with Frohnmayer.

            It’s telling that I am more optimistic for the Republicans than you are! But that just goes to demonstrate the point I’ve long believed, that Oregon Republicans enjoy being losers, because it allows them to indulge their real desire, which is to mutter in the darkness about how everyone else is stupid and out to persecute the valiant ones.

            But yes, if the Republicans deliberately stomp in it again, I’ll be happy to be the first to say “I told you so”. Even — espeically — if I vote on their side, as I did with M66/67.

            It’s nice that you kow what people like me are really thinking. I guess such a talent must be a big help in that business of yours.

      • Rupert in Springfield

        I never said they were stupid, but interesting it springs to your mind.

        I’m saying Democrats aren’t exactly the most thoughtful people in the world.

        My evidence?

        Well, lets go with Measure 66/67. What was the campaign slogan in virtually every ad?

        “If you make under $125k, you wont pay a cent more.”

        Well, that was manifestly untrue and didn’t exactly take a calculus degree to figure out why.

        Then there was also the argument made that if you were a corporation, you only paid $10 a year in taxes. Wow, wonder why all these thoughtful people didn’t incorporate years ago and lower their tax bill to $10 if that one was true?

        Moral – If the tag line your party uses to sell something is so clearly untrue, then it gets real hard to argue your constituency is thoughtful when they buy it.

        Frankly I think you were doing better when you were looking up dirty pictures of me in the internet. Clever banter is not your strong suit.

        • Anonymous

          You’re a pathetic loser, Rupert, and we all know it. Just get over it already. You’re a skeevy slimebag that was revealed as such by a ten second google search. End of story. Why do you keep bringing it up?

          “Clever banter is not your strong suit.”

          What?? I guess I missed the memo informing me that we were engaged in some kind of witty banter contest. Ridiculous. My point was understood by eagle eye. Your outlook is embarrassingly simpleminded.

          • eagle eye

            What’s this about dirty pictures and the results of a google search, if I may ask?

        • valley p

          “Well, considering your political instincts usually are dead wrong..”

          Really? I seem to be instinctually in the majority since 2006 nationally, and since 1988 in Oregon, so I’m not doing that badly.

          “Remember, you were the guy who thought we would have a health care bill by the end of last year.”

          Yes I did, as did most experts. We did have a House bill pass. And we had a Senate bill pass a month later. And it looks like they will find a way to bring it over the goal line soon. Behind schedule, but getting there. Something usually beats nothing in politics.

          “You also thought cap and trade had a chance in hell of passing. ”

          Yes…and I still do. EPA regulation hovers like a sword of damocles. A few Republicans may yet come to their senses. Less than 50/50 chance for this year, but better than a chance in hell. Again, something usually beats nothing.

          “We,, so what is it means your 40 year Democrat Reich that you were proclaiming just last November is kaput.”

          Rinse, wash repeat. I made no such claim. 40 years is a long time. But if Republicans continue to go the way of the tea Party and CPAC, and if unemployment drops into reasonable territory this year, then 40 years is certainly possible.

          “If even you, Mr. 40 year Democratic Reich, say there is a 25% chance, thats astonishing. ”

          I only say it because the odds makers say it. Just like I only say global warming is real because the scientists say it. I have a respect for expertise even when the conclusions disagree with my bias or wishes.

  • Capp the $hmoos in Salem

    Kitzhaber, Bradbury, Hunt, Courtney, Brown – absolutely NOT! Surely, DeFazio, possibly Metzger, better for our economic state of affairs than the aforementioned.

    On the GOP side, Gordon Smith, perhaps, having an edge to pull ‘win’ able numbers of Dems to Center Right. For sure, Alley, Dudley, Lim and Atkinson highly unlikely to garner any kind of stock options from DNC Animal Farm agencies.

    Of course, a most honorable Greg Walden merits being the next Mahonia Hall host – yet, he’s still heeded and needed in Congress.

  • eagle eye

    The only surrpise here to me is John Lim’s relatively strong showing. Of course, it’s only a poll with a limited sample. But why does Lim come within 2% while the others (except Sizemore, of course) come up with the standard 6-8% Republican loser’s margin? I know very little about him.

  • Richard

    The same issue applies here as with Wyden, Unless the Republican leads, this poll say the Democrat will win in a close election, past election seem to prove this .

  • Jack Roberts

    The numbers here show basically how a generic Republican candidate would do today against a generic Democrat. There is relatively little distinction among the individual candidates othe than party (including, if you are a Rasmussen premium subscriber, in the sub-categories shown in the crosstabs).

    The one exception, of course, is Bill Sizemore. He is irreperably damaged, not because he’s too conservative but because of the public’s perception of his character. I’m not going to argue whether that is fair or unfair, but it is a reality. If Sizemore gets the nomination, we are handing the governor’s office to the Democrats.

    • Jim Ray

      At least Bill is true to the Conservative cause unlike you were in ’02. Suppose you’ll sign on with your buddy Kitz again? (NO to a Spending Cap).

      Sizemore is the Only Conservative in the field and should be supported for his courage in fighting the Union Thugs who steal from their members and Oregon taxpayers.

    • eagle eye

      Rightly or wrongly, Sizemore would be poison for the Republicans. They would have to have a death wish to nominate him in the primary. Are they that far gone? I doubt it, but I’m not sure.

  • Bennie

    Taxhaber is a jerk!. I have hated him ever since he forced the Prison on Wilsonville out of spite. Hermiston wanted it, but that jerk was going to make sure it got shoved down Wilsonville’s throat. With him in office the state will never recover.

    Problem here is, it’s not who votes. It’s who counts the votes once Kate Brown gets a hold of them.

    • Vigilant Earp

      Right about Brown, surely a Bradbury adjunct – and, both with skills bearing King County 101 and Multnomah County 201 elections COUNTenances.

  • Publius

    Whoever wins the primary will get my support, but Allen Alley is my guy for right now. Regardless, if Kitzhaber gets elected, would the last person to leave Oregon please turn off the lights?

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