Three polls: DeFazio 6% from losing, Wyden gains, Senate D/R forecast

Polls Below
1. DeFazio vs. Robinson
2. Ron Wyden vs. Jim Huffman
3. Senate Democrat-Republican Seat Forecast

Wilson Research Strategies (GOP Poll)
Congress Poll
Peter DeFazio 48%
Art Robinson 42%

Rasmussen Reports
Oregon Senate Poll
Ron Wyden 52%
Jim Huffman 36%
Other 4%
undecided 8%

Real Clear Politics
Senate No Toss Up forecast
Democrat Seats 51
Republicans 49

Poll questions:

Why is Congressman DeFazio slipping? Has he been surprised and caught off guard by his opponent? Or has the national stirring help to awake the middle of Oregon? Has DeFazio ever had a strong challenger in the 20+ years he has been in office?

On the Wyden-Huffman Senate race, does this senate race reflect Wyden’s political skills or just boil down to Wyden’s incredible fundraising advantage?

Please give your comments on the DeFazio, Robinson, Wyden, Huffman congressional races.

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Posted by at 08:42 | Posted in Measure 37 | 20 Comments |Email This Post Email This Post |Print This Post Print This Post
  • eagle eye

    A Republican poll! What credence should be placed in that? I remember when they said Jim Feldkamp was 1% ahead of DeFazio. Guess who got slaughtered.

    I’ll believe it when I see it in an independent poll. So far, nobody has thought to bother taking one.

    True, Robinson has signs all over the rural parts of his district, it is amazing.

    We’ll see.

  • Scatcatpdx

    What the gus, what it means DeFazio is still winning.

  • Bob Clark

    some of the poll results show considerable variance. For instance, yesterday two polls were released for the Rossi and Murray Senate race (Washington), one showing Murray with a 15 point lead but with the CNN/time poll showing Murray with only an 8 point lead. The Angle and Reid race polls consistently a toss up (Nevada). And the other closely watched Senate race is Illinois where the republican is behind by only 1 percentage point. I pray for Huffman and Donnelly, and maybe folks on the left go to sleep and ignore the election.

    GOP Senate takeover looks problematic since Biden is the tie breaking factor. The U.S House is rated better than even, near 60%, for GOP take back. It’s getting down to crunch time, and we need to counter the mainstream media opinion pieces. Fortunately, money still works in getting on the airwaves. Counters the public employee union and Move on dot commie monies, anyways.

    • valley p

      “The U.S House is rated better than even, near 60%, for GOP take back.”

      OK. And once they have been handed the house back….then what Bob? What do they do with it? What do they say about the budget deficit they will again share responsibility for? What policy changes will they push, and what will they be able to negotiate with Obama and the still dysfunctional senate?

      What the Republicans ought to hope for is to fall a few seats short, stay out of power, continue carping, and then maybe they can win the whole thing back in 2010. of course then they would really have to govern, and we all know what happened last time.

  • conservatively speaking

    DeFazio may have more commoner sense to serve Oregon, compared to either Ditzydoofus-Haber or Bile Bladder-Slurry.

    Alas, the schlep of state continues to founder on the shoals of what’s left of US island.

    Vote for Art Robinson, endowing St Petah to revisita his basillica in some Dem ruminations left of Carthage.

    • Founding Fathers

      Yes, think of all the money you’ll save on electricity when you glow in the dark from Art Robinson’s scheme of sprinkling radioactive waste everywhere!

  • Chris Ruck

    Defazio is having a tough race because of multiple factors:
    He’s been in Congress too long & founding member of Progressive caucus – People know how dangerous that is in this shaky economy.

    He voted with the Progressive caucus to increase debt when it mattered and was ‘excused’ from towing the party line once in a while so he has a sham record to publish at re-election time. His CSPAN rants to an empty chamber are recognized as the orchestrated sound bites they are; if he were respected by his colleagues-he’d be on in prime time.

    Constituents have deconstructed his dishonest campaign methodologies and an awakened, more engaged electorate is willing to escort Defazio to the exit.

    One example of PD’s foolish tactics. He says he thinks the cap & trade bill would let speculators get rich. REALLY, no objections to giving the President & Secretary of State the authority to issue & grant carbon credits to whomever they wish? The bill in effect authorizes the issuance of ‘carbon bucks’ without Congressional oversight. The bill is just another printing press in the hands of the government.

    Thank you no Mr. Defazio, it’s time for you to put away OUR checkbook, pack your office.

  • skippy

    The polling company Wilson Research Stratigies is a Republican polling company. The lack of objectivity in their polls is well known. Nice job of cherry picking polls.

  • Wayne Rapp

    Peter assured me he would not vote for Obama Care. He lied. Now he is running a very dirty campaign throwing out all kinds of unproven assertions–probably more lies. He refuses to debate the issues. He seems like he is in panic mode not the leader in this race.

    I do not want Pelosi to continue as house leader, so Peter needs to go.

  • Bruce

    Art Robinson is a crack-pot. His ideas on social security, oil drilling and the public education system show him to be a fringe loony. Peter DeFazio has enormous power in the House, power that results in the citizens of his district receiving far more government benefits than a rookie congressman could ever hope to bring into the district. PD’s stand on making medicare payments more equal for Oregonian seniors provides huge benefits for those seeking medical care. If you care about the environment, your golden years, the golden years of your parents and older relatives, job creation in S Oregon, and economic benefits to our district, you couldn’t possibly vote for Robinson. If a knee jerk “throw ’em all out at any cost” response works for you, then perhaps Art is your man.

    • Anita Allen

      You need to read something besides PD’s exaggerations and down right lies. He’s been in Washington for almost 24 years and has nothing positive to campaign on so he slings around untruths. His lies have been disproven many times over and because he has a huge war chest from his “special interest groups’ including the financial sector, he just keeps playing the same ads over and over. In a letter from him he indicated he wouldn’t be voting for Obamacare and then did it anyway, WITHOUT READING IT FIRST! How does he explain things like the federal sales tax that will be implemented, I believe 3.8% on all real estate sales beginning 2014. That should REALLY help the housing market. Did he even know that was included, among many many other bad ideas, in the health care bill? Or did he even care? I don’t think so. And do you really think men smart enough to be Astronauts would come to Oregon to help a nut case campaign. Art Robinson is the best hope we’ve had in many years to have some common sense in Washington DC.

  • Wolf

    Please consider who you will be electing if you choose Robinson.

    Do research on his “science”. Look at his own fraud and dishonesty when it comes to his stance on global warming. I have not seen 100% proof of man’s contribution myself, but Robinson has declared it a sham without doing any research of his own. He passed around a petition which he claims shows support for his claims from thousands of scientists, but he never bothered to vet the credentials of the signers (which of course contained some “colorful” entries…lol). The “research” article he presents with the petition makes erroneous conclusions from data that isn’t even related to the assertions being made. Being a biologist (4 year degree) who has read plenty of scientific reviews, research, etc…I would have thought it was written by a middle school science student…not a PhD. He runs a “science institute” out of a warehouse in Cave Junction, whose members are mostly comprised of his own family. From here, he peddles extreme-rightist homeschooling kits and nuclear war preparedness manuals.

    Whatever you may have against Defazio…Robinson is not qualified to represent Oregon in matters of science, which he does have a background in…I see no evidence showing that he is qualified to represent Oregon in matters which he DOESN’T have background in. If the only reason you are voting for Robinson is because he is not Defazio…well consider how you felt when the nation voted for Obama because he wasn’t Bush. At least Obama had some political background….Robinson is a no-name science hack, who is only gaining momentum because he has jumped on the Tea Party bandwagon and has some big money pouring in from out of state.

  • Debby

    If you saw Art Robinson on the Rachel Maddow show, it should be enough reason not to vote for him. I feel simply afraid that he’s a legitimate candidate. When I see all the signs for Robinson, it’s terrifying to think that there are people in support of a man who includes racist children’s story in his homeschool curriculum, which he developed. One story claims that blacks come from inferior racial stock. Are you serious? He calls himself a scientist and arrogantly claims that he himself has proven global warming to be a fraud. Have Oregonians in our district really done their homework? How could he really be in the ball park of DeFazio?

  • Jim Ellison

    Hi all You out-there that would vote to shoot-off your left-Foot. DeFazio has been a Champion against the Out-of Control American Corporations that are Hell-Bent on Corporatizing America; Out-Sourcing Jobs to China – Asia – Central America; Owning & Controlling 96 % of American Media, so as to fill Your Brain with Mindless Garbage in an Effort to Dumb-Down the Population. And of-course, lets not forget all this Hidden Corporate Money spreading all over America for the 2010 Election to Slander the Democratic Candidate. But in the Land of, “Dancing With The Stars” and “American Idol”. No wonder a Quack like Art Robinson is only 4 points behind DeFazio in a Conservative Slanted Poll.
    Did it ever cross your minds that DeFazio gets re-elected because He is the, “David Fending-off Goliath” Representative that Most People in Lane & Benton Counties realize when they send Him back to Washington D.C. ( People who can find China, Iraq, Africa, on an unmarked Map of the World; But who wouldn’t even know what channel American Idol appears on ) that’s People who are INFORMED; People Thomas Jefferson would be Proud of!! And A Final Note, I’m Proud to live in a State that has not sent an Electoral Vote to a Corporate-Republican Presidential Candidate since 1984 ( Look it up ). Sincerely, J.E. Silverton, Blue-Oregon.

  • Bonnie Parmenter

    Peter Defazio betrayed American by spending almost 2 years with the rest of Congress working on a health care plan while 14,000 Americans per day were losing their health care due to loss of jobs or their employer cutting expenses or they just can’t afford it anymore. I fall into the last category in the past 20 years I have not been with-out health care. I now cannot afford health care and most of my family are in the same situation. The stimulus package only allocated 80 million dollars to help small businesses and that is about $2.00 per business. We had an economic tsunami and it was like Congress spent their time cleaning up the beach while people were drowning. We have to remember one definition of insanity is voting for the same candidates over and over and expecting different results.

    • Wolf

      I fully agree with your assessment of the failure of the status quo. I fully agree that tackling the behemoth of health care was idiotically timed. And yeah…if I were voting for Defazio and expecting change, I would be crazy.

      Instead, I am voting for Defazio because the alternative IS crazy. It almost seems like you would trade in ineffectiveness for an unknown, untested, untrustworthy variable that has a proven track record of deceit and intellectual dishonesty. If you think it can’t be any worse…I again remind you that people didn’t think it could get any worse than it was under Bush and voted for Obama accordingly. Don’t make the same mistake here.

      I have never before said this about a candidate, but Robinson scares me. I was amused by him 8 years ago when reading up on his pseudo-scientific response to pseudo-science and his rabid disdain for any model of schooling that wasn’t based on 70 year old “Little Red School House” curricula…the thought of him being able to draft and pass legislation terrifies me.

      • Mickey

        Wolf, I respctfully disagree.

        What’s empowering Obama the the fact that Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi are able to deliver to him a solid block of Democrat votes to ramrod his jobs killing progressive legislation through.

        Art Robinson at least won’t contribute to this empowerment by supporting Nancy Pelosi over 96% of the time like Peter DeFazio did. Furthermore, if you’re worried about legislation Art Robinson would pass, do you really think anything he’d put forth wouldn’t be vetoed by Obama unless it had the massive support of both Republicans AND Democrats?

        The point is that a vote for DeFazio is a vote to continue to empower Obama and a vote for Robinson is a vote against that empowerment with little risk that any “threatening” legislation by Robinson will become law.

        If we take away Nancy Pelosi’s rubber stamp for Obama’s agenda, which is what DeFazio represents then by 2012 the President’s power base will be broken and you will also have a legislative track record for Art Robinson to determing if you want to return him to Congress.

        It seems to me that a vote for Art Robinson is both the wiser and less risky choice than returning DeFazio to Washington to continue empowering Obama, Pelosi and Reid.

  • Mickey

    Fact is DeFazio has voted with Nancy (We have to pass the bill before you can see what’s in it) Pelosi 96.6% of the time according to the Washington Post. Therefore, a vote for DeFazio is a vote to rubber stamp Nancy Pelosi’s big spending, jobs killing, individual liberities depriving progressive agenda.

    Think about this. Do you really want the government dictating to you what you can eat, what doctors you can go see, or who you’re allowed to listen to on the air? Do you really like giving a free pass to people who’re trying to “cut in line” by coming to this country illegally? (I’m the son of a legal immigrant by the way). Are you really comfortable that the government, in this day and age of international terrorism, refuses to secure our borders? Are you happy about the fact that since Nancy Pelosi became speaker of the house that the national debt has increased by over $5 trillion, $3.5 trillion in the last two years alone? Do you really think we can keep this up without it all coming apart?
    That’s what you’re voting for if you vote for Peter DeFazio! A rubber stamp for Nancy Pelosi’s agenda.

  • Genie Singer

    Your political bias is obvious by your refusal to use the correct name of the Democratic Party and instead using terms like “Democrat candidate,” “Democrat seats,” etc.

    You may think that’s a good political strategy but it tips your hand to any reader who might otherwise have thought you were attempting to be a journalist with some objectivity.

  • Genie Singer

    BTW, Wyden’s “incredible fundraising advantage” (which just might be a reflection of Oregonians’ approval of his record as a Senator) pales in comparison to the $ millions that unidentified “independent” organizations/individuals have spent on ads attacking Wyden and DeFazio. That’s happened because of the Scalia/Roberts Supreme Court narrowly deciding that corporations can anonymously spend unlimited $ to influence our elections and because of the Senate Republicans filibustering the legislation that would have at least required disclosure of who was paying for the TV ads and other propaganda.

    A lot more has been spent on Robinson’s campaign than on DeFazio’s, and Wyden hasn’t been outspending Huffman, either.

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