Rasmussen Poll: Dudley 3% over Kitzhaber. RCP upgrades Oregon

Rasmussen Poll: Dudley 3% over Kitzhaber. RCP upgrades Oregon
By NW Spotlight,

This Rasmussen Oregon governor match-up poll between John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley is the second poll this week to show a Dudley lead over Kitzhaber. See results below.

Rasmussen Reports
Chris Dudley 49%
John Kitzhaber 46%
Other candidate 3%
Undecided 3%

Real Clear Politics:
RCP put Oregon from lean Democrat to toss-up.
Other Kitzhaber-Dudley polls last week showed a Kitzhaber lead. Now that lead appears to have changed.

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Posted by at 09:27 | Posted in Measure 37 | 814 Comments |Email This Post Email This Post |Print This Post Print This Post
  • Rupert in Springfield

    I’m trying to think which would amaze me more, Barney Frank losing in MA or Dudley winning in OR. I would be surprised at either result, but the fact that either is a possibility is astonishing.

    • valley p

      Once again we agree, though for different reasons I imagine.

      • Rupert in Springfield

        >though for different reasons I imagine.

        I doubt it, both are very liberal areas, although Franks is gerrymandered.

        • valley p

          Then I was right, our reasons are different. In Frank’s case, I always had assumed he was a popular congressman who well represented his constituency. In Dudley’s case, that Oregonians are so frustrated they would elect someone who has done nothing at all to merit the job is, as you would put it, astonishing.

          • anon

            Now what could have caused such frustration?

          • Steve Plunk

            Sort of like our current president. At least Dudley understands the superiority of the free market over collectivism.

          • eagle eye

            Hadn’t “our current President” been a state senator and a U.S. senator before running for President? What exactly is Dudley’s comparable experience at a similar stage?

          • Rupert in Springfield

            >Then I was right, our reasons are different.

            Doesnt look like it to me.

            >In Frank’s case, I always had assumed he was a popular congressman who well represented his constituency.

            Quite true, however that is precisely the purpose of a gerrymandered district. Do you even know what a gerrymandered district is? I dont think so, because if you were then I don’t see how you would think that a congressman being popular is somehow evidence that a district is not gerrymandered.

            >In Dudley’s case, that Oregonians are so frustrated they would elect someone who has done nothing at all to merit the job is, as you would put it, astonishing.

            Well, you would only find this astonishing because you really dont think beyond Democrat talking points. The union commercials say Dudley is so inexperienced and thus you think as you are told to.

            It would hardly be precedent setting or even really notable for a guy who has been endlessly flogged on the experience difference between him and his opponent to get elected. Obama was raked over the coals on this very issue and yet Oregonians by and large voted for him.

            Since it has only been two years since we had a candidate win despite the experience issue being a major campaign factor it would hardly qualify as astonishing. You really are only saying that because you have been taught to think that way.

            No, what would be astonishing is seeing a Republican win the governorship and overcome government union antagonism towards him. Since it would be the first time in a generation Oregonians had seen such a thing that would qualify it as astonishing.

            Dudley overcoming the experience issue? We saw that exact same thing two years ago so not so much on that one.

    • Andrea

      Oregon is NOT a welfare state, move to the south, that’s where you belong. We pay for the ‘rednecks’ appx $1.66 for every fed dollar they pay in. WHAT THE HELL HAS MADE YOU THUGS SO MAD? THE BLACK GUY IN THE WHITE HOUSE? WHAT!
      The last gasp of the hydra, the old, white fearful uneducated, calling lib-u-rals everything from welfare queens to elites, whatever the moronic Rush tells you to say that day. No idependent thought nor creativity! Springfield, well that accounts for it. Keep going, a little further east & you’ll be more comfortable, Idaho or Neveada are calling you. Or Alabama, that’s about your speed.
      8 years of being li9ed to, spied on, having habeas corpus & other rights taken away & you’re all still complaining about Barney Frank, well get this, Kitz is ahead by 7%, ha! Dud is just that, tax cuts for the wealthy, & you Rupert are too stupid to understand, YOU ARE BEING USED BY THE CORPORATISTS!

  • Anonymous

    vpd

    Oh yes the experienced Democrat is always best even if their track record sucks.
    Is that about it?

    Your stupid democrat pretence that a governor dudley would be bumping into doorways in salem trying to figure out waht to do is pathetic.

    He’d be a better governor with far better attention paid to genuine effectiveness than the expeienced at failure Kitzhaber.

    • Rupert in Springfield

      >Oh yes the experienced Democrat is always best even if their track record sucks.
      Is that about it?

      That’s about it.

      Kitzhaber will win but simply because it is virtually impossible to get elected in this state if government employee unions don’t feel you are going to pay them off. Our experience with Kitzhaber is he was very good to those government employee unions. They know he will continue to line their pockets very well.

      Oregon is essentially a welfare state. With the number of people we have dependent on government it simply is extremely difficult to get elected without some assurance you will pay them off. Kitzhaber has a track record of those kinds of pay offs; thus winning the endorsement of government employee unions.

      • valley p

        “Do you even know what a gerrymandered district is?”

        Um…let me think about that. Yes, I do know. Now what is your evidence that Frank’s district has been artificially shaped to capture lots of Democrats?

        “The union commercials say Dudley is so inexperienced and thus you think as you are told to.”

        Right, only I don’t watch commercial TV so that includes me out of your theory. As an objective fact Rupert, Dudley has never held any political office, has never run a business, and has no track record of public service. That adds up to a complete lack of the type of experience one normally looks for in someone running for the position of governing a state. Once does not need commercials to figure that out. Deductive reasoning is sufficient.

        “Obama was raked over the coals on this very issue and yet Oregonians by and large voted for him.”

        The difference being less experience versus zero experience. Less experience should be factored in, and it was factored in for Obama. Unfortunately for McCain, his weird behavior during the campaign made him look like the less trustworthy candidate in the end.

        “Oh yes the experienced Democrat is always best even if their track record sucks.
        Is that about it?”

        Nope. That’s not it. In this case Kitzhabers track record does not “suck.” Oregon had a great economy when he was governor and tackled several large problems successfully, including the salmon and watershed issue.

        “Your stupid democrat pretence that a governor dudley would be bumping into doorways in salem trying to figure out waht to do is pathetic. ”

        I never said anything about doorways, but now that you mention it since the standard doorway opening is 6′ 10″ and Dudley is 6′ 11″ that is certainly a possibility. The issue with Dudley is that none of us have any idea what he will be able to accomplish because he has no record of accomplishment. He seems to have one idea, cutting capital gains taxes, that a Democratic majority legislature will not even entertain. He has conflicting ideas about education, some of which he will get support for. He lacks the legal authority to negotiate on salaries for 60% of what the budget pays for, namely teachers. So I don’t know aht you and Rupert expect from him exactly, but I think you will both be pretty dissappointed by the end of the legislative session.

        “Oregon is essentially a welfare state. With the number of people we have dependent on government it simply is extremely difficult to get elected without some assurance you will pay them off. ”

        Back that up with data Rupert. Show us that Oregon has more public employees or people dependent on government than other states, like Alaska (a Republican state) for example.

      • John in Oregon

        VP you asked > *Now what is your evidence that Frank’s district has been artificially shaped to capture lots of Democrats?*

        Have you looked at Frank’s district? It’s shaped like a crab with visions of a romantic tryst with a rock.

        > *The difference being less experience versus zero experience.*

        Everyone has experience. Your point is Government experience. A candidate must be or have been in Government to run for Government.

        I would say that experience in Government is the mark of disqualification for office. Many people agree with me on that point. Just check out all the inside government candidates that were rejected in primaries all across the nation.

        > *Nope. That’s not it. In this case Kitzhabers track record does not “suck.” Oregon had a great economy when he was governor and tackled several large problems successfully, including the salmon and watershed issue.*

        Not true. The last biennium of Kitzhaber’s last term was the Clinton recession (01-02). And Kitzhaber just kept on spending leaving Kulongoski holding the bag of dudu.

        Spending like a drunken politician is an issue with Kitzhaber with Oregon currently being broke. Back then the issue was more Kitzhabers inability to work with the legislature. As an ER doctor Kitzhaber expects to be obeyed immediately without question. That is a real problem.

  • John in Oregon

    Interesting comparison of the Frank gerrymandered district with the Oregon Gov election. In many ways the two are very dissimilar. Nevertheless the comparison is useful.

    Frank is in a district that is rated D+ double digit. Yet Republican Sean Bielat, is challenging Frank and Frank is running scared. Frank is vulnerable because of his connection to the Fannie / Freddie financial melt down. Bielat has aggressively organized, campaigned relentlessly, knocking on doors, while pointing out Frank’s actions.

    First Frank tried to side step the issue by saying that he supported rental housing. When that didn’t fly he all but admitted to Larry Kudlow on CNBC “that the whole system of federal affordable-housing mandates that was central to the real-estate collapse including the mandates on Fannie and Freddie and the myriad bad decisions made by private banks and other lenders in response to the government’s overreach.”

    Most recently the Boston Globe noted “Frank, in his most detailed explanation to date about his actions, said in an interview he missed the warning signs because he was wearing ideological blinders.”

    One factor is the independent vote. Although early independent turnout has been lower, indications nationally are the indi vote is breaking 2 to 1 Republican.

    It appears that Frank and other Dems may be facing another problem. A problem illustrated in Delaware. When Christine O’Donnell won the Delaware primary the Republican power structure imediatlly set out to knee cap her campaign. She can’t win. Yeda yeda.

    Yet in the last weeks the Dems have been in Delaware DEFCON 1 mode. The Dem big names rushing to Delaware, big money being spent. With O’Donnell being down 25 – 30 points the question is why?

    Hillbuzz may have an answer. For those not familiar, Hillbuzz is an inside Dem politics supporter of Hillary in the last primary. Although somewhat cynical now Hillbuzz still maintains contacts within the Dem campaign and fundraising structure.

    Hillbuzz raised a question with an answer; “Democrats are ferociously attacking CoD (O’Donnell) as hard as they attacked Scott Brown in Massachusetts. If she is so far behind, what is the point in beating up on this woman?”

    The answer; “The problem is some internal poll that apparently shows that a high percentage of Democrats early voting are voting straight ticket Republican instead…they are Democrats voting against Democrats.”

    How do these factors weigh in Oregon? Well Dudley and Huffman chose to use cast off Gordon Smith campaign teams. Teams that chose to run a safe campaign don’t turn anyone off. That might be the correct choice in ordinary times. These are not ordinary times!

    I said some time ago that it appears the Reagan Democrats may be back. Reagan had a vision of the shining city on the hill. Yet he did not hesitate to attack big government. His description of Government

    If it moves, Tax it.
    If it keeps moving, Regulate it.
    When it stops moving, Subsidize it.

    Yet neither Dudley or Huffman are willing to be aggressive. No door knockers, just the usual. Huffman is down running against a siting senator that doesn’t even live in the state. Given that it’s remarkable that Dudley remains very competitive.

    So this race comes down to the independent voter. Neither Dudley or Huffman have earned the Regan Democrat vote.

    • valley p

      “Everyone has experience. Your point is Government experience. A candidate must be or have been in Government to run for Government. ”

      Yes, everyone also draws oxygen. I think the standard should be higher though. No experience serving in government would not be disqualifying to me. I can accept private sector experience that is comparable, such as running a large organization. What has Dudley run? What has he done outside government to indicate he can manage a multi billion dollar enterprise? That he can lead a diverse people?

      “I would say that experience in Government is the mark of disqualification for office.”

      Well then you just disqualified Scot Bruun, Greg Walden, and most other Republicans currently in or seeking office. Many people might agree with you. Many people also think Elvis is alive and was abducted by aliens. Many think Obama was born in Kenya and is a secret Muslim communist. You may even be among this group. Just because many people think something doesn’t make it a useful bandwagon to climb aboard, or a group worth leading for that matter.

      “And Kitzhaber just kept on spending leaving Kulongoski holding the bag of dudu. ”

      You mean the Republican legislature kept on spending don’t you? Every budget he signed was first passed by them.

      “Huffman is down running against a siting senator that doesn’t even live in the state.”

      Be careful repeating radio jock myths John. It goes to credibility. Wyden, like most Senators, “lives” in Washing DC Metro area for obvious reasons. He keeps a condo here for his frequent trips home. He has a wife with a residence in New York. He is winning because he has represented most Oregonians the way we want to be represented. Its pretty simple.

      “So this race comes down to the independent voter. Neither Dudley or Huffman have earned the Regan Democrat vote.”

      In a state with 200,000 more Dems than R,s it also comes down to turnout and enthusiasm. Beyond that, Reagan democrats? Reagan has been gone from the political scene for over 20 years now. Former Reagan Democrats are now probably retired and collecting SSI and Medicare. Of course that means they are also probably Tea Party members, so you already have them on your side.

  • Anonymous

    Alley would have shredded Kitzhaber in the debates. Regardless, I’m going to work to the end to make sure Dudley wins.

    We’ve come too far this year to not win. Let’s hit the phone banks hard this weekend.

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