Bill Post: Why Chris Dudley lost

Radio Host Bill Post,
1430 KYKN Salem
Bill’s blog here.

I knew this day was coming and have held my tongue and played the good “team player” game. Well, being a “team player” didn’t sit well with me and now here we are.

All the way back in February and March of 2010, several people, very prominent in the Conservative movement and the Republican Party, met with Chris Dudley and his campaign staff. These people spoke very clearly to Mr. Dudley. He was advised, urgently, to “get rid of those people”. Of course “those people” were the Gordon Smith insiders including Dan Lavey and Kerry Timchuck. Later, Brittany Brammel and LeRoy Coleman and other “outsiders”.

To their faces, they were told that they could not win this election, that Chris had to surround himself with Oregonians, and especially Oregonians who understand Oregon, not just the Portland Metro area. Chris was told during several long meetings, before the primary mind you, that he had a real chance to win if he listened now! Chris chose to go with the plan they had laid out for him and now we see the results.
Chris Dudley was a creation of Gordon Smith insiders who left Oregon after Gordon lost but came back to “create” another moderate candidate for office. Now, these same people will go back to D.C., with a little bit more money in their pocket, a little smudge against their pride but nothing else will change in their lives, yet they leave us in this mess!

The Libertarian (limited government) and Constitution (far right conservative) candidates each pulled more votes than the margin of victory for Kitzhaber. I had to explain on many occasion after the primary to my friends, family and radio listeners, that Dudley would be surrounded by good Republicans after the election and to take comfort in that. Why did I have to explain it that way? Because person after person was concerned about Dudley’s moderate to liberal stance on everything except fiscal issues. I am afraid that many of those same people either voted for the “other party” candidates or they left the Governor unchecked on their ballot.

We have tried again and again to win with moderate candidates from the Portland business crowd who promise solid fundraising. This year, we had the establishment GOP candidate, and he lost against the most complete insider, old way of government liberal in a year in which the entire Nation was in the midst of a true Conservative tidal wave of support, and they swept in limited government insurgent outsiders while we here in Oregon are left with Kitzhaber.

One thing that this election showed is that money alone will not win a statewide Republican race (same in California). It will take a good ground game with really energized folks. Those folks just could not “pull the lever” for Chris Dudley.

Instead of trying to please the middle, instead of trying to sound like you are not going to make any waves and play nice with the folks who have dug Oregon into this hole, what the Dudley campaign should have said is: “this State requires a complete makeover and I will be the one to do that even if it means only one term, I will stick to Conservative principles and will surround myself with strong Conservatives and I will not sleep until Oregon is the back in the condition it deserves to be in. That means that some old pictures are going to fall off of the wall.”

People will vote Republican if a Republican articulates a strong and exciting limited government message. A message delivered with a sense of commitment and passion.

Most of all, in the next gubernatorial primary, the Republicans should run a true Conservative, stop pandering to the Portland crowd and Republican voters should listen less to the folks with all the money and more to the candidates who run on a limited government message, and stay true to our Conservative ideals, the ones that made America a strong refuge.

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  • eagle eye

    Dudley lost when he made the needless crack about waitresses and the Oregon minimum wage. Unlike Ron Saxton, he went out of his way to avoid trashing public employees. But he dissed the waitresses, big time, and for no reason. If he hadn’t done that, he would probably be governor-elect.

    • Rupert in Springfield

      >But he dissed the waitresses, big time, and for no reason.

      Wrong – Dudley never “dissed” or made a crack about a waitress.

      That commercial was Dudley quoting others, not saying how he felt about minimum wage.

      Was it effective? Sure, your ignorance of the quote shows that.

      Did he lose the election because of it? Of course not, there is no evidence to support the contention.

      Dudley was hardly ahead in the polls by any margin that showed him with some substantial lead that suddenly collapsed after that ad ran so there is no evidence whatsoever that the ad had any singular effectiveness. It was effective, but it didn’t cost him the election as you contend.

      Look, we all know that nationally you guys just got your head handed to you and now you are just looking for an opportunity to bash Rep[ublicans out of sour grapes.

      That attitude might have worked well state wide but nationally looks like you guys got egg on your face.

      • eagle eye

        Uh, Rupert, I voted for Dudley (barely), and I voted for Huffman. I voted for some Democrats, too, and abstained in a couple. So I’m not exactly a raving Obamaite. I’m just telling you why I think he lost. Maybe you can come up with evidence for your crackpot theory — apparently, that the election was stolen. But I’ll stick with mine. He lost, it appears, by 1% or less. Had he made that remark, I think he might well be Governor now.

        I know that in Eugene-Springfield the waitress remark got a lot of attention at the end. I’ll bet it was noticed in Multnomah County and every other place where there are waitresses. It may have been taken partly out of context, but he did say it (unlike the famous “quote” from Kitzhaber about the state not being governable). And in context, it’s pretty clear that he basically agrees with it.

        Bill Post’s prescription — run as a hard-core conservative — is a recipe for gettting 40% of the vote, or less. Just ask Huffman (who did not even run as a hard-core).

        • Rupert in Springfield

          >Uh, Rupert, I voted for Dudley (barely), and I voted for Huffman. I voted for some Democrats, too, and abstained in a couple. So I’m not exactly a raving Obamaite.

          I never claimed you were. You are simply a big government big union guy based on your comments and positions over the years. There is nothing wrong with that, its simply a political position.

          I just simply think you have sour grapes because you are a fan of Democrats and of Obama. The reason why I would say this is because you were quite proud of the 2008 election results and constantly referred to anyone who wasn’t thrilled with the results as “you guys”.

          Lets face it, a guy who could “barely” vote for the most moderate Republican candidate in a long time probably is more likely to subscribe to The Nation than National Review.

          Personally I dont really care what you call yourself politically. The fact is just about every opinion you express here is generally stock and trade party line Democrat and every denigration of a political figure is towards Republicans.

          >I’m just telling you why I think he lost.

          No problem with that, Im just telling you the two key flaws in your theory – one Dudley never said the quote, two there was no precipitous poll drop that would back up your contention.

          >Maybe you can come up with evidence for your crackpot theory — apparently, that the election was stolen.

          Um just because you cannot come up with evidence of your theory does not mean I should come up with evidence for a theory I never espoused.

          I claimed from day one Kitzhaber would win because Oregon is a center left state with high government dependency. I never once said the election was or would be stolen.

          You are really of the mark on this one.

          >Had he made that remark, I think he might well be Governor now.

          Dudley never made that remark – sorry, you are simply wrong on that one.

          Thats the definition of crackpot theory – A quote no one ever said led to loss of the race even though all the polling evidence contradicts it.

          >Bill Post’s prescription — run as a hard-core conservative — is a recipe for gettting 40% of the vote, or less. Just ask Huffman (who did not even run as a hard-core).

          Congratulations – you have lurched into the obvious. I certainly wouldn’t disagree with that and have been pretty vocal in that opinion.

          Why you bring a disagreement with Bill Posts position to me is about as mysterious as your contention that Dudley dissed a waitress or that I have claimed the election was stolen.

          Crackpot theory’s with no evidence, making up nonsense no one ever claimed, you really are the man of mystery today.

        • Anonymous

          Don’t forget to thank Rupert for your lesson in humility.

          • eagle eye

            Yes, and a lesson in lucidity!

      • Mary’s Opinion

        I could not understand why Dudley didn’t make a campaign ad denouncing the waitress ad put forth by Kitzhaber. I think candidates shoot themselves in the foot when they don’t debunk the lies in campaign ads. If one doesn’t explain and refute lies, folks (voters) believe they’re true. Too many voters are uninformed, vote only for the incumbent and by the sway of ads. How many votes did Dudley lose because of that ad?

  • Anonymous

    Bill, you echo my thoughts exactly. In fact, I think you may have even quoted me at great length.

    (this is not a swipe at you for copying – I encourage EVERYONE to read our words and share them with all)

    Oregon Republicans have had useless candidates shoved down our throats by the “machine” for years, and look where it got us. The only races where we did well were in state legislative races where grassroots Oregonians made the difference. All the high profile races tanked.

    This was a year when “fire and brimstone” conservatives won big in 95% of their races. Sure, there were a few let downs like Christine O’Donnell – but don’t confuse her loss in an impossible race (Delaware has 2 – 1 registered democrats and the open seat was vacated by JOE BIDEN!) with a repudiation of the tea party movement.


    No more dealing with experts, consultants, or national power brokers. We need to take control of the GOP back for ourselves, vote in new leadership, and move forward on solid conservative principles. No more playing it safe with the Portland business crowd. They have proven time and time again, they CANNOT DELIVER Multnomah! Our next candidate for state office – Secretary of State is open in 2012 – needs to be a real Oregonian who will run on a campaign of LIMITED GOVERNMENT and RESTORING LIBERTY TO THE PEOPLE.

    Let me be the first to nominate Jason Atkinson – I hope and pray he is able to run after a few years of family medical issues held him back.

    • Jeffersonian

      Atkinson for Governor would lead to no more plastic shopping bags in Oregon, or they would be taxed into non-existence…I like the idea of Art Robinson taking a crack at the mansion, since we need a creative Constitutionalist with solutions for a hurting economy.

      Bill – Thank you for saying it like it is (again)!

      It was clear to this casual observer that GOP-liberal Gordon Smith’s staff was working behind the scenes to come up with many plans having many points, so why didn’t the state GOP executive committee (under the purvue of Bob Tiernan) *vet* Dudley _before_ the primary? Who’s running the GOP bus in Oregon?

      Just his vote alone for Obama 2 years ago should’ve been enough to DQ him from running as a Repub in the primary, and no Right To Life endorsement at all? Item 1.6 of the party platform clearly declares that innocent life must be protected, “from conception to natural death.”

      Although MultCo didn’t look good with their tardy numbers, Dudley could not have given away enough full college scholarships to win the hearts of true Oregonian conservatives, no matter how many illegal aliens he would blame Washington Deceit for allowing into our sovereign state.

      Oregon’s GOP needs to clean up its house and get it right.

      • Anonymous

        please re-read the above for comprehension: Atkinson for Secretary of State 2012. One election at a time, people!

  • Axel

    The Conservative movement does not work because its made up of predominantly white religious types who have racist tenancies and are homophobic.
    Cutting tax’s means cutting services and that only effects a lot of people in a negative way.
    The Progressive Party are smart people. KPOJ is a great radio station to get informed. Keith Olberman is a realist while Glen Beck is a fear monger.

    Dudley was hand picked by the rich business class types like Bill McCormick to get the capital gains taxes cut. Those type of people have lots of money but not lots of votes.

    • Matt Evans

      Racist tenancies are illegal under the federal Fair Housing Act.

      • ROFLMAO

        Hahahahahaha! Typo joke of the month.

    • Anti Pinhead

      Hey Axel, you need to refill your crackpipe. Out of money? Well, go get your government cheese and sell it on the street. Now there’s a free market I’ll bet you believe in! Maybe rich guy Keith Olberman will right you a check……..

  • Mike Riley

    Once again, the conservatives who voted for the Constitution and Libertarian candidates (2.69%) instead of the Republican, were the margin of victory for the Democrat. Note that there was no left-leaning third-party candidate pulling votes from Kitzhaber. Conservative voters in Oregon (for the fourth time in 20 years) effectively elected the Democrat.

    PS – Both Dan Lavey and Kerry Tymchuk are life-long Oregonians, and are not from Washington DC.

    • eagle eye

      Good point! They do have a way of shooting themselves in the foot, don’t they?

      • Rupert in Springfield

        Hint – If you want to be taken seriously as non partisan you might want to realize that consistently referring to anyone on the right as “the other” doesnt exactly do a lot for your credibility.

        Never missing an opportunity to yuck it up for a loss on the right, and then getting defensive for being associated with the left (such as pointing out your claimed voting record above) is a little nutty.

        • Anonymous

          Hint – The “they” in eagle eye’s comment corresponds to “the conservatives who voted for the Constitution and Libertarian candidates (2.69%)” from Mike Riley’s comment, not to “anyone on the right”.

          It’s never too late to learn to read. Keep trying.

    • db Lulu

      I would be interested in looking at the numbers who voted for minor party candidates and the undervote over the years. I wonder if there is a pattern or not. I believe that those 2.96 percent are not inclined to vote for a major party candidate period. Besides the key factor in Dudley’s loss essentially comes down to numbers. The Democrats have more voters and they do a better job of getting them to vote.

      Why don’t we work on getting MORE Republicans and doing a better job at getting them to vote?

    • The Bill Post Radio Show

      You are correct about the Conservative vote Kevin, and I think I clearly state that.
      As for Dan and Kerry, well let’s just say, they are not out for Oregon’s best interest as far as I am concerned and though THEY are not from DC, the folks who they are connected to ARE from DC and the outsiders brought in to run the campaign, other than a few volunteers and token positions, were from outside Oregon. Chris was given every chance to change his direction but he/they chose not to.
      Huffman, did not run as a true blue Conservative. He also ran against a name, not a man.
      A true Conservative, who does not forget ALL of the state, who does not neglect ALL of the state and sticks to his guns WILL win. Anyone heard of Chris Christie? You think NJ is more Red than Oregon?

  • Bob Clark

    It’s hard to imagine Multnomah county getting anymore Democratic party oriented as Dr. Sales Tax received 70% of the vote in this county while Dudley Do Right received less than 28%. So the real trick is to grow the GOP base outside of Multnomah. Multnomah is a lost cause. Washington county is trending a bit to the Dems but I think it might be swingable back to GOP if the GOP offers policies promoting a burst of local control over there in land use and economic expansion.

    If you remember back to Senator Smith’s loss in ’08, he too lost because a third party vote took just enough from the GOP to give Merkley the advantage. Some of the Dems have talked of changing general elections to include only the top two primary election vote getters. I would support a different version whereby the top two party candidates in the primary election are included in the general election. Other parties would have to either endorse one of the two remaining candidates, or endorse neither. This would eliminate the impact of smaller third party candidates in the general election but permit them a shot in the primaries. It would work for and against either of the two mainstream parties. For instance, Bush Senior would not have lost to Bill Clinton because of Ross Perot’s third party candidacy; but neither would have Gore lost to Bush 2 because of Ralph Nader. And Dudley and Smith would still be with us, today.

    I think there is very well a reason to implement a geographic political war of sorts against Multnomah county in particular for those in the rest of the state of Oregon.

  • bujeeboo

    I respect your point of view on this. However, regardless of Dudley’s ground game, he voted for Obama which came out 3 weeks before the election. I doubt even Allen Alley did that. I think he was just the wrong guy altogether to carry the Conservative message.

    • The Bill Post Radio Show

      Thank you, I agree with you as well.
      Allen Alley was the right person for this election. He will be more involved now then ever with the future of business in Oregon, but he would have assembled a “dream team” of Conservatives if he were Governor.
      The meetings between these organizations who tried to help both Dudley and Alley were very good meetings. Alley listened, Dudley did not. Pair that with the SEVEN other candidates who ran in the primary and Dudley did not win that primary as much as Alley lost.

    • Anonymous

      Allen Alley worked for Ted Kulongoski. Same difference.

      • bujeeboo

        hmmm… no. Not really.

  • Tired of losing

    Can we expose the giraffe in the room already? Chris Dudley had no business running for governor. He isn’t remotely qualified or prepared for the job. He can barely string two coherent sentences together.

    He was recruited and convinced to run by Lavey and Tymchuck, who needed another meal ticket after they screwed up the Gordon Smith race. It was cynical and destructive to convince a person who had no business running for anything above the legislature to run for governor just because he could be a good vehicle for fundraising.

    Remember who got a percentage of all of Dudley’s fundraising: Lavey’s wife Laurie Hardwick. This was Lavey putting his own finances above the good of the state, pure and simple.

    We have to hold the both of them – Dan Lavey and Kerry Tymchuck – accountable for what they have done. Their credibility is zero, and we should never ever listen to them or support their candidates in the future.

    Who was the mastermind that thought it was wise, one week before the election, in the big profile the Oregonian did on Dudley, to disclose that Dudley voted for Obama in 2008? That is CLASSIC Tymchuck. Tymchuck works for a Democrat public affairs firm, for God’s sake. Why do we let him intervene in Republican politics?

    Dan Lavey, for his part, is Vera Katz’s boss at Gallatin!

    Lavey and Tymchuck – this was your last gasp. Go away. Shame on us if we ever follow anything you do again.

  • Stan Ash

    This article explains why we keep losing the big statewide races. We need a candidate with some cohones, not one who just looks nice. Dudley never went into attack mode.

  • eagle eye

    Gimme a break, you guys! Dudley came closer to winning than any Republican since Atiyeh, if historical memory serves me correctly. If you have someone better, let us know. Allen Alley? He couldn’t even win the Republican primary, and he’s already lost a statewide race by the usual margin. Bill Sizemore? Ron Saxton? Kevin Mannix? Maybe you can persuade Art Robinson to run for Governor next time. That would really be an interesting test of your theories.

    • Rupert in Springfield

      Quite true.

    • valley p

      You nailed it Eagle. All this sturm and drang over a guy who came closer to winning than anyone. If Dudley had had just a smidgen of a public record, like being a mayor or even chairing a board on something, I think he would have won. I didn’t vote for him, and probably never would, but I think a lot of people who don’t like Kitz did not vote for Dudley simply due to lack of qualifications.

      The lesson for Republicans should be that you can elect a pro business candidate who is pro abortion rights and not anti environment. In other words, a moderate. But next time find someone with at least something of a resume.

      Or…retreat back to your corner and find a true believer and lose big.

    • Anonymous

      He came closer in a GOP wave year when national figures had likely voters supporting the GOP an average of +10 or so. Compare to 2000. In 2000, when the national vote was actually really close, Oregon had a 2,000 vote difference between Bush and Gore.

      To my way of thinking, there is no excuse for a credible GOP candidate losing in Oregon in this year of all years. Kevin Mannix would have won this year. Hell, Bill Sizemore could have made a strong showing this year.

      In a year when, across the state, the GOP picks up 6 House seats and 3 Senate seats, the governor still loses? In a year when the GOP is winning big? In a year when our candidate is a “dream” candidate with celebrity status, name ID, personal likability, campaign cash, and supposed moderate appeal? In a year when old school democrats like Russ Feingold were sent packing and the opposing was a former two term governor with a history of taxing, spending and killing jobs?

      And you actually have the nerve to suggest that because Dudley ALMOST won, that we need more candidates like Dudley?

      Did you vote for medical marijuana? Because you sound like you are on it!

      • valley p

        “And you actually have the nerve to suggest that because Dudley ALMOST won, that we need more candidates like Dudley?”

        Like him politically but with an actual record of accomplishment, yes. Oregon is not Alabama. Its a moderate, left-leaning state. You can’t elect bomb throwing conservatives here state wide. Give it up.

        “Did you vote for medical marijuana? Because you sound like you are on it! ”

        Yes I did and no I’m not. As proof, if I were “on” pot, I would be eating twinkies and watching Rocky and Bullwinkle reruns, not engaging in political discussions.

        • Anonymous

          Like him politically but with a previous political record – so… Ron Saxton? Loser. Or how about with a very strong political record? Jack Roberts or Dave Frohnmayer? Been there, done that.

          We need a NEW DIRECTION. If George W. Bush could come within 2,000 votes of winning our electoral votes against a popular sitting VP during economic boom, then a real conservative can win in this state, especially against a less popular opponent of the ruling party during a recession!!!

          • valley p

            Well…good luck with that. Go find yourself a “real conservative” like Sharon Angle or Joe Miller or Sarah Palin or James Imhoff and find out how well they can do electorally in Oregon. I hope you are young, because it may take a while to learn your lesson.

            By the way, wasn’t Huffman a real conservative? And wasn’t he running against a wimpy liberal named Wyden? How well did that one go? Answer, Dudley did a whole lot better state wide. Empirical data.

      • eagle eye

        You think Kevin Mannix can win? Go ahead, get him to give it yet another try! Sizemore? How about Art Robinson? Go for it!

        I’ll say one thing for you guys, you are very sincere about wanting to bash your head against the wall, over and over again. There must be something rewarding to it, I’ll have to give it a try, so I can find out what it is.

        • Reper

          A wall well indented with bashing

  • Anon

    Agree 100% Bill Post.

    How about 100,000 Jobs here now!? Aren’t Jobs a top issue?

    Per Pew Research report of over 5 years ago, over 100K illegal aliens have stolen that many jobs from Americans and legal immigrants here in Oregon. Thousands more illegal’s since have fled AZ., MO., OK., GA., and come here for “Sanctuary”, i.e. a Job & Social Services.

    I worked hard on Chris Dudley, Jim Huffman, Delia Lopez & Mike Forest to run ads to get the Voters excited too see that these candidates actually had a viable solution to help with our economic woes. At least 100K workers in the next year actually paying all Taxes and many less getting entitlements (and they & thier Famillia do per the C.B.O. report of Dec. ’07) would make a big dent in our consistent state over-spending problems.

    Thier old fart not-really Republican handlers like Tymchuck, Mannix, Saxton, Ross Day & sen. Larry George told them to ignore me, did Mary Kremer win Rob?. The results speak for themselves. And gee Meg Whitman in CA., after $142 Mil. spent, ran Ads saying she was against the AZ. law on illegals, and in Spanish, didn’t work for her either did it.

    Also UP for election is the head of B.O.L.I. job in 2012! I told Dudley & other candidates that B.O.L.I. is the only state agency Exempt from our Sanctuary law p/subsection 4. Governor could send Ex. order for B.O.L.I. to check S.S.# of all job holders here, public & private.
    I got Gov. Ted K. to issue an Ex. order telling 12 state agencies to longer travel with the Mexican Consulate ID sale to Illegals in our Schools, per The Oregonian, he did yet Dem. head of BOLI said we still will be with them anyhow.

    B.O.L.I. & S.O.S. positions need to start campaigning now.
    S.O.S. campaign voter excitement feature? Proof of citizenship to Vote here. Result? Non-citizens no longer allowed to Vote for Socialist programs/Politicians.
    B.O.L.I. campaign voter excitement feature, Bureau will check the S.S.# of every person with a job in Oregon, private and public. Result? Over 100K jobs opened up, Unemployment cut in 1/2.

    ps, Pew Hispanic Research reported last week; from June ’09 – June ’10, over 650,000 “Immigrants” got a Job, while over 1.2 Million Americans got fired.
    YOU will be Fired also unless we make these changes and now.

  • Sol668

    Man you guys just don’t get it do you? I’m one of those dreaded multnomah county progressives you so loath, and there was a time in this state when republicans pulled a great deal of weight


    Tom McCall, Bob Packwood, Mark Hatfield

    …And you guys WON on a progressive message, limited government (pro choice, pro gun rights) but one that still respected the role of government in promoting the interests of the community, environmental, social and economic….Tom McCall once said “I love oregon more then life itself”…hell dudley didnt love it enough to bother to pay its taxes!

    Whats happened to the Oregon republican party and all of you people, is you’ve lost sight of what made Oregon unique, independent, and special in the first place….and one of those things is acknowledging what we share commonly

    If you think pushing your out of state values, with out of state money and moving ever further towards the right wing fringe is going to return you to power in oregon I can only laugh

    But the great thing about america is that your freak show religous fundamentalism, and your ridiculous desire to trudge backward into the great utopia that was 19th century robber barron capitalism, is now well represented in states like Kentucky….

    You should really consider moving there

    • “”

      Appears Sol668 has two brains. Alas, one is missing and the other is out looking for it. Selah.

      • sol668

        This is typical of the conservative mindset, they only have insults to defend their failure, their entire ideology nothing but a sneering declaration of their personal superiority

        and you wonder why you can’t win a state wide race in oregon

  • Kingston

    You can’t out-negative someone to a better plan to the future

  • Just say d’oh!

    What WA’s King County hath done for Gregoire and Murray, so goes OR’s Multnomah County.

    Pity the Dem populace’s shan’t be merged into a state of PinHeadtopia where they bong.

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