A call for restraint in light of economic clouds ahead

There is a recession looming and Oregon is, once again, ill prepared to deal with it. No, I’m not an economist or a market analyst, or, for that matter, I didn’t even stay at a Holiday Inn Express. But a friend of mine, Jim Stack, President of Investech and a nationally know bear market analyst who has been dead on during the last two recessions, is an expert. Without resorting to the myriad of charts and indices that Jim uses in his thoughtful and articulate analysis, suffice it to say that he concludes that the storm warning flags are flying and that we may, in fact, have already entered a recession. (A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and, therefore, you are already a half year into a recession before it is labeled as such.)

At the close of business of the day of this column, the Dow Jones has dropped just about 1200 points from its September highs. That is an 8.5% drop in the market. More importantly, that means that year to date, the stock market has grown precious little and, therefore, capital gains — the mother’s milk for tax revenue growth in Oregon — has grown very little also. And in a recession capital gains revenue will shrivel to near zero — just like it did during the last recession.

So why is that important. Well for two reasons.

First, Gov. Kulongoski has announced that he is “backing away” from consideration of tax reform because the current tax structure appears to be sufficient to provide all of the tax revenues necessary for the future. Now the future to Kulongoski means that spending will increase in excess of twenty percent or more each biennium. Kulongoski and his Democrat colleagues in the legislature are prepared to demonstrate that fact in spades during the upcoming special session when they will add millions to the already largest increase in spending on record for the legislature.

The recent recession which Oregon entered almost six months before the rest of the nation and exited nearly a year after the rest of the nation, proved that there are insufficient revenues to sustain the double digit growth in spending that preceded that recession. And there is no reason to expect anything different in the face of a new recession.

Second, the revenue forecasting model used by both the Governor and the state legislature has a fatal flaw when it comes to economic activity on the edges of “normal” growth. The model uses a straight line growth assumption based on historic “average” growth. Thus, the model assumes that from whatever economic condition exists at the time, there will be growth from that point. During the 2001-2003 legislative session(s) — there were five special sessions in addition to the regular session — the forecasting model consistently failed to predict the decline in revenue for the ensuing period because it was biased towards growth — thus the need for five special session to rebalance the budget in light of continuously declining revenues. The best the model could do was predict growth from a new, lower base.

It is the same reason that the model failed to predict a nearly $1 Billion surplus in revenues for this past year resulting in the extraordinary (and well deserved) refund due to the “kicker.” In essence, the kicker is triggered when actual revenues exceed predicted revenues and since the model predicts average growth from the most recent base of revenues collected it cannot predict robust growth.

The end result is that Oregon finds itself in exactly the same situation that it was in prior to the most recent recession and resulting economic and government turmoil. We have a government biased toward excessive spending and a revenue forecasting model incapable of predicting the advent of a downturn, or the depth of the downturn when it occurs.

But the extent of the problem is not the same. Prior to the last recession, Oregon experienced an extended and strong period of economic growth with an expansion of good paying jobs. Currently, we have barely recovered from the previous recession and while there has been job growth it has largely been in the government and service sectors. The manufacturing and construction sectors (the good paying jobs) have declined and we continue to watch the out-migration of substantial businesses.

For those in office who believe in responsible government, it is time to put on the brakes. And while you cannot stop Kulongoski and the Democrats because of their numerical majority, you can refuse to be a part of it and you can scream loud and clear each and every day for reform of the forecasting process and restraint in spending.

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Posted by at 05:55 | Posted in Measure 37 | 11 Comments |Email This Post Email This Post |Print This Post Print This Post
  • Jerry

    Good points Larry. These tax-and-spend libs make me ill. They are way too stupid to even understand what you just wrote, sadly, so the wanton waste will continue. Let’s do it for the children.

  • John Fairplay

    Excellent article, even if it falls on deaf ears.

    The defeat of Measure 50, I hope, will give the Governor and his liberal progressive allies pause in their long-term plan to increase income tax rates. Given enough rope, the Democrats will hang themselves.

    • Jerry

      It will not, as they think the only reason people voted it down is that we are all too stupid to know that what they were trying was great policy. Don’t hold your breath.

  • CRAWDUDE

    Oregon = Waste…………….only the voters can stop it by not electing liberals, so far they haven’t figured that out.

  • Britt Storkson

    As detailed at http://www.theprotectionracket.com our political “leaders” will reduce or quit spending only when they have to, not because it’s the right thing to do. They will keep on spending more and more and will stop only when there is a major economic recession…at which time they will simply grab their golden parachutes and bail out.

  • eagle eye

    Great, on the brink of recession Oregon will be sending out huge kicker checks instead of having put the surplus aside for the inevitable rainy day.

    Don’t expect the public employees to heed the inevitable calls to “tighten their belts”. Why should they when the state behaves so irresponsibly?

    Spend the money like crazy when times are good and then be amazed at what happens when the good times end. Sounds like some trashy people I used to know.

    • CRAWDUDE

      Happy to get MY money back from them, glad it wasn’t wasted on their pay increases, light rail and corrupt pet projects.

      They’ll have no choice but to curb their spending, the voters won’t allow any tax increases and any fast ones they try to pull will be an initiative away from repeal.

      • eagle eye

        As I said, I’d rather it went into a reserve fund — NOT a spending binge. You’re right, taxes won’t be allowed to be increased. The cost will be in reduced services as the state lurches through the next recession to the next boom and repeats the cycle. The hate government types will be happy, so will the liberal Democrats who will continue to be elected.

    • DMF

      I’m happy to get some of my tax money back also. If they kept the kicker checks, it wouldn’t help at all. These guys do not and never have understood how taxing those who produce to death and giving it to those who do not produce,does not work.

      They are always trying to get us to feel guilty about “the children” and ” the poor.” I do not feel sorry for the children or the poor. I do however empathise with those who are having it rough and I have absolutely no problem helping those who attemp to help themselves. These tax and spend politicians aren’t helping anybody with their programs. If they really want to help, they need to get their heads out of the sand, or wherever they put their heads and take a good look at realty.

      There is no excuse for Oregon to be in the physcal state it is in. None, Nada, Nine. Not one.

  • Dave A.

    Many thanks Larry for your insightful article. As an active investor, I have been seeing this coming for some time. The local fish wrapper appears to be clueless how badly the local housing sector has deteriorated. They seem to “think” that somehow Oregon and the Northwest will avoid the nationwide mortgage crunch.
    Interesting, especially since they just recently wrote about how stagnant the housing market is in Bend and Central Oregon.
    Just this morning the state economist reported a mostly flat economic report showing little or no growth in the economy and largely the same unemployment figures there were last month. I can hardly wait until after December when those numbers will look a lot less inviting.
    Of course, with Oregon in the grip of a union lawyer that probably never took an economics course in his sorry lifetime; it is no wonder that Ted continues to spend state money like e cum drunken sailor.

  • John Fairplay

    The kicker checks may be all that will keep Oregon’s economy afloat in the coming months. Holding it for a rainy day would be the most irresponsible thing possible, as using money for government services is akin to throwing it down a rathole, economically speaking.

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