President

• Mitt Romney easily won the Republican primary with 72% of the vote, Ron Paul got 12% of the vote (with 69% of the vote counted)

Portland Mayor

•  Charlie Hales and Jefferson Smith will be in a runoff in November (with 64% of the vote counted)

Congressional Primaries

• Delinda Morgan won over Lisa Michaels in the CD#1 Republican primary – Morgan will now face Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D) in November
• Joyce Segers won over John Sweeney in the CD#2 Democratic primary – Segers will now face Rep. Greg Walden (R) in November
• Ronald Green won over Delia Lopez in the CD#3 Republican primary – Green will now face Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D) in November
• Rep. Peter DeFazio won over Matthew Robinson in the CD#4 Democratic primary – Rep. DeFaZio will now face Art Robinson (R) in November
• Fred Thompson won over Karen Bowerman in the CD#5 Republican primary – Thompson will now face Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) in November

Attorney General

• Ellen Rosenblum (D) won over Dwight Holton (D), receiving 162,032 votes – there were 17,224 Repbulican write-in votes as of 2:45 AM

State Treasurer

• Incumbent Ted Wheeler (D) had no opponents on the ballot and got 222,085 votes – there were 16,256 Repbulican write-in votes as of 2:45 AM

Oregon Legislature – Contested Primaries

Oregon Senate

• Tim Knopp won over incumbent Sen. Chris Telfer in the SD#27 (Bend) Republican primary – Knopp will now face Geri Hauser (D) in November
• Sen. Doug Whitsett won easily over Karl Scronce in the SD#28 (Klamath Falls) Republican primary
• Bill Hansell won over Maryl Graybeal Featherstone in the SD#29 (Pendleton) Republican primary

Oregon House

• Kelly Lovelace won over Jacob Daniels in the HD#11 (Central Lane and Linn Counties) Republican primary – Lovelace will now face Rep. Phil Barnhart (D) in November
• John Lively won over Sandra Mann in the HD#12 (Springfield) Democratic primary – Lively will now face Joe Pishioneri (R) in November
• Kathy LeCompte won over Tom Chereck Jr. in the HD#22 (Woodburn) Republican primary – LeCompte will now face Rep. Betty Komp (D) in November
• Ben Unger won over Katie Riley in the HD#29 (Hillsboro) Democratic primary – Unger will now face Rep. Katie Eyre (R) in November
• Jennifer Williamson won over Sharon Meieran in the HD#36 (Portland) Democratic primary – Williamson will now face Bruce Neal (R) in November
• Timothy McMenamin won over Sam Cantrell in the HD#41 (Milwaukie) Republican primary – McMenamin will now face Rep. Carolyn Tomei (D) in November
• Michael Harrington won over Daniel Ticknor in the HD#44 (North/NE Portland) Republican primary – Harrington will now face Rep. Tina Kotek (D) in November
• Jessica Vega Pederson won over Thuy Tran and Andrew Haynes in the HD#47 (Portland) Democratic primary – Vega Pederson will now face Maggie Nelson (R) in November
• Jeff Reardon won over incumbent Rep. Mike Schaufler in the HD#48 (Happy Valley) Democratic primary – Reardon will now face George Yellott (R) in November
• Peter Nordbye won over Marv Hollingsworth in the HD#52 (Hood River) Democratic primary – Nordbye will now face Rep. Mark Johnson (R) in November
• Gail Whitsett won over Tracey Liskey in the HD#56 (Klamath Falls) Republican primary
• Rep. Bob Jenson won over Brent Smith, Jack Esp and Eli Stephens in the HD#58 (Pendleton) Republican primary – Rep. Bob Jenson will now face Heidi Van Schoonhoven in November

click here to see other 2012 Oregon Primary results at the Oregonian

The 2012 Primary election has brought a closing chapter to a long story about the fall of State Representative and former House Speaker Dave Hunt. The election results show that he received an embarrassing and terrible last place showing among four candidates in his race for County Commissioner in Clackamas. Fourth place? After spending nearly $150,000 Dave Hunt hit last place.

At one time Dave Hunt was Speaker of the House with a huge Democrat majority. He used that power not just to raise lots of taxes but also punish people who disagreed with him. Republicans were shut out during Hunt’s rule and even the media began to notice. Dave Hunt tried to manipulate ballot titles to stop ballot measures he didn’t like (until he was rebuked). At one time Dave Hunt tried to pass a bill which made it more difficult for the Independent party to use their own name. Fellow Democrat lawmaker felt his misuse of power and later voted him out of his leadership position. The sad career of Dave Hunt includes being bounced from his Speakership, bounced from Democrat leader by his own members and now rejected by voters in a colossal flop for Clackamas County Commissioner.

John Ludlow 16,707 28%
Charlotte Leha 16,056 27%
Paul Savas 14,367 24%
Dave Hunt 11,899 20%

Progressive candidates Jefferson Smith & Mary Nolan use fiscal taxpayer issues in the campaign and showed huge gains among voters.

One of the biggest surprises of the Portland Mayor race was Jefferson Smith who received nearly 30% of the vote and beat out Eileen Brady who got 24% of the vote after spending over a million dollars (more than the other two candidates combined). . It was Jefferson Smith who ran television ads against wasting tax dollars on the Columbia River Crossing bridge and another ad touting his saving taxpayer dollars by cutting middle management waste from the state budget and another ad touting budget transparency & wasted ratepayer dollars. Every complaint against Brady (in the rumor circuit) from many different voices always included her support for the $60 million eco-boondoggle sustainability center that taxpayers and both Democrats and Republican leaders have disliked. Charlie Hales got the most votes at 38% but that is expected as a Former Portland Commissioner.

City Commissioner and incumbent Amanda Fritz got stuck in a tie with challenger Mary Nolan. Taking out an incumbent is difficult and Mary Nolan almost did it with her two TV ads, one attacking Fritz for “wasting money” and the other for Fritz wasting tax dollars on a 911 mismanagement problem.    Interestingly, many consider Nolan more liberal than Fritz and yet the campaign Nolan chose to run was one of taxpayer issues and budget management.

Nolan and Smith could have run on raising taxes or followed Obama by saying other Oregonians should pay more. They didn’t. Instead they made fiscal management a top campaign issue. If they win in November and actually live it out in office what they ran on they will find Portland a better city and bring taxpayers great relief.

Right From the Start

The Atlanta Journal cartoonist, Mike Luckovich, recently captured the essence of former Democrat Vice-presidential candidate, John Edwards. The cartoon shows the trial judge at Mr. Edwards’ current criminal trial addressing the jury while Mr. Edwards preens in a handheld mirror:

“More testimony about Edwards’ efforts to keep his pregnant mistress secret followed by a 30-minute recess so we can all shower. . .”

John Grisham did a more thorough job of describing the essence of sleaze-bag class action tort lawyers, like Mr. Edwards, in his novel, King of Torts. It is not only an entertaining read; it is a dead on description of the essence of men like Mr. Edwards. And like the judge in the cartoon, you feel like you need a shower after reading it.

It is pretty well established that Mr. Edwards is a creep. Just the fact that he was out banging the help while his wife was dying of cancer, qualifies Mr. Edwards as a top-tier creep. It is a mistake, however, to describe his sexual assignations with Rielle Hunter as “an affair” or her as “his mistress.” Both of those terms assume some degree of emotional commitment by Mr. Edwards and based upon news stories and the testimony at his trial, it appears that the only emotional commitment Mr. Edwards ever had was to his mirror. Edwards’ lack of any emotional tie to Ms. Hunter is evidenced by his referral to her as a “crazy slut” when she turned up pregnant with his child.

We know also that Mr. Edwards was a “cheap creep.” In his 2007 filing with the federal election commission, Mr. Edwards acknowledged a net worth of approximately $30 Million. Those filings are notoriously inaccurate and allow candidates to underreport their true financial picture. Other estimates put Mr. Edwards’ net worth at about $55 Million during this period of time. CNN reported that Mr. Edwards earned $1.2 Million in 2006. But despite having more than enough income and assets to cover the costs of keeping Ms. Rielle incognito – an action that would have immunized him from the prosecution he is now facing – Mr. Edwards declined to spend his own money and, instead, tapped an aging dowager for hundreds of thousands of dollars in an attempt to protect his campaign. (There were earlier signs of this when Mr. Edwards was forced to reimburse his campaign after his disclosure forms revealed the campaign paid for two $400 haircuts – but then Mr. Edwards is a good liberal and more than willing to spend your money on his great ideas.)

But the most startling part of this whole melodrama is that all of this went undetected by the press during Mr. Edwards 2007-08 run for the presidency – I should say went undetected by the mainstream press because, apparently, the gossip rags were all over the story. Testimony during Mr. Edwards’ trial indicates that it was pretty common knowledge that Mr. Edwards was having sex with Ms. Rielle and that her child was more likely than not his. It was also common knowledge that Mr. Edwards’ wife was suffering from breast cancer – a fact that he trumpeted endlessly to gain empathy from women voters. The showdowns between Mr. Edwards and his wife over his sexual trysts were, apparently, also common knowledge among campaign staffers and more than a few wealthy donors.

This was a compelling story. A major political figure engaged in a number of sexual encounters with a member of his campaign staff – including a romp in Mr. Edwards’ wife’s own bed. A pregnancy that was denied – and denied to the point that Mr. Edwards engaged another staffer to take the fall for the pregnancy. Hundreds of thousands of dollars being paid by supporters of Mr. Edwards to keep Ms. Rielle quiet and even hidden. And yet nothing. Tantalizing headlines in the gossip rags and still nothing.

All of this is reminiscent of Gov. Neil Goldschmidt’s three-year sexual assault of a minor. In a previous column I noted:

“It’s no different than with the original story about former Gov. Neil Goldschmidt.

“When Goldschmidt resigned his position as head of the Board of Higher Education to avoid the looming scandal of his repeated rape of a fourteen year old girl, the Oregonian dutifully reported Goldschmidt’s press release saying that he had resigned for “health” reasons. The Oregonian did this in spite of having access to the exact same information on Goldschmidt as did Willamette Week which later that same day broke its Pulitzer Prize winning story detailing the sordid conduct of Goldschmidt over an extended period of time as well as his efforts to cover his tracks by making payments to his victim. It was only after Willamette Week broke the story on its web page that the Oregonian finally scrapped Goldschmidt’s press release and coughed up the actual story.

“In the aftermath it appears that the Oregonian had information that could have led to the exposure of Goldschmidt years prior to the Willamette Week story and chose not to pursue it.”

Likewise, the story of Portland Mayor Sam Adam’s pursuit of teenager. In another previous column I noted:

“First, Sam Adams has admittedly engaged in predatory sexual conduct. Beau Breedlove was a teenager serving as a legislative intern and whom Adams was “mentoring.” At the time that this affair began, Adams was twenty-five years older than this teenager. He was in a position of trust as a mentor and a position of authority as a Portland City Commissioner. Experts in human behavior tell us that predatory sexual behavior is usually a recidivist behavior – if such a person has done it once, it is likely that he has done it before and will do it again.

“Second, Adams lied to the public during the course of his mayoral campaign in denying any relationship with Breedlove. He coached Breedlove to likewise lie about the relationship. Adams may still be lying about the relationship given the discrepancies between his statement and Breedlove’s. Adams has asserted that nothing occurred between he and Breedlove until after Breedlove’s eighteenth birthday – apparently Adams is aware of the statutory rape laws. Breedlove, however, states that one of their first encounters occurred in the men’s room at City Hall while he was still seventeen. Apparently, the encounter involved kissing – not sex – although, given their age difference, it was inappropriate and may have crossed the lines of criminal sexual misconduct with a minor.

“Third, the governing class, including the Oregonian, covered up this story at the critical moment when something could have been done by the voters. Bob Ball repeatedly raised this issue during his exploratory campaign against Adams. He met with the Oregonian but the Oregonian refused to pursue the issue. In its own recent editorial calling on Adams to resign, the Oregonian came as close as it ever will to admitting a mistake:

“‘For one thing, when Bob Ball, his would-be opponent began spreading rumors about Adams and Breedlove back in 2007, Adams didn’t just deny the allegations and decry Ball’s tactics. He launched an all-out public relations assault against the man.

“”He asked one of the city’s leading campaign specialists to coach Breedlove in dealing with the onslaught of impertinent questions. He preached piously about the importance of mentoring young, confused gay men to help them through their identity crises. He derided Ball for falsely employing a vicious anti-gay canard in his effort to force Adams out of the mayor’s race and out of politics. He took care, he claimed, to avoid even the appearance of impropriety. He’d do it all again, Adams proclaimed back then, to defend these virtues. He fairly dripped sanctimony.

“‘But it was a lie, Adams now admits, cooked up to save his political career.

“‘Sad to say, plenty of us bought it and, for that, we owe Ball an apology. Yet, even this week, Adams felt an underlying justification for his tactics back then because Ball accused him of criminality instead of mere sexual exploitation of a callow young man.” [Emphasis added]

The bias of the mainstream press in support of liberal politicians is a raw, open and seeping sore. Nowhere is it more obvious than in what it withholds as much as what it prints. If you are counting on the press to expose the corruption of those with whom they agree politically, don’t hold your breath.

It is this attitude and a refusal to deal with it in a forthright manner that has contributed to the diminution of America’s print media. It is an attitude that has been well documented and most often reluctantly admitted. But it is an attitude, coupled with a sense of invulnerability, that has allowed it to continue unfettered. And like any open, running sore, it will eventually kill the host.

Oregon Transformation

Flash Fact: Oregon’s retired PERS members to cost over half a trillion dollars for the next 100 years

Between 2010 and 2109, Oregon’s Public Employee Retirement System (PERS) will pay out almost $600 billion to government employees who have retired as of 2010.

Even if all pension and retirement benefits were removed for non-retired Oregon government employees, Oregonians would still be on the hook for $600 billion to previously retired PERS members.

The payments are currently accelerating in size and will not begin to level out for almost 50 years.

To put this liability into perspective, $600 billion is equal to the entire private gross domestic product (GDP) of Oregon for 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010.

In other words, Oregonians would need to work for four years and give up the entire value they create to pay for Oregon’s retired PERS members!

Sources: 
http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1
http://www.oregontransformation.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/2012-05-03-Treasury-Cash-Flow-Projections-2010-008-06-07-10-1.pdf

visit Oregon Transformation Project

Oregon Senate Republicans

Senate Republicans to take on abuses of social safety net programs again

Salem, OR – Senate Republicans will continue to push legislation that can safeguard the integrity of Oregon’s public assistance programs. Data recently released to The Oregonian revealed disturbing evidence of misuse of these funds. In an effort to protect programs for needy Oregon families, Republicans introduced legislation in 2011 to require drug testing for individuals on public assistance.

“Oregon’s assistance programs are meant to help struggling Oregon families pay for groceries, gas and rent while they get back on their feet,” said Senator Bruce Starr (R-Hillsboro) who sponsored the 2011 legislation. “A few bad apples are abusing these payouts to gamble, drink and visit strip clubs. Putting a stop to that type of exploitation protects taxpayer dollars and shields the resources for those who need them most.”

The state currently disburses $16 million every month to families that are far enough below the federal poverty line to qualify. The money is made available through the Oregon Trail Card and is intended to be used for necessities. Currently more than 37,000 families benefit.

However, new data shows a series of transactions that have occurred in Oregon casinos, liquor stores, bars and strip clubs. For example, $1,200 in transactions were conducted at a Portland bar and dancing establishment. Republicans want to put restrictions in place that prohibit transactions that are clearly flagrant abuses of the program.

“It isn’t just inappropriate, it undermines the effectiveness and mission of the program and puts the families that truly are in need at risk,” said Starr. “Putting tighter restrictions in place on Oregon Trail Cards can help insure the long-term integrity of this program.”

Senate Republicans are working to draft legislation to address the problem.

The Oregonian article looked into abuses of the TANF program (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program) – which is designed to help the poorest Oregonians by providing temporary financial assistance, with the aim of helping them get off of welfare – primarily through employment. TANF is in addition to other social safety net programs like food stamps, Medicaid & unemployment.

On May 4th Booker gave an inspiring keynote address before the American Federation for Children, a national school choice organization. He said his strong support for school choice stems from the options he was afforded in his own life–options denied to millions of children because their ZIP codes determine what schools they must attend.

A Black Democrat himself, Booker made it clear he is disappointed that “his president” hasn’t yet joined him in supporting school choice for every family, not just for those he calls “the connected and elected.”

Not surprisingly, the left was upset that Booker would speak before a group partially funded by what it considers right-wingers. Booker slapped those concerns aside in his talk, making it clear that to him school choice is not a left/right or partisan issue, but one of equal rights.

But, the virtual heat Mayor Booker took from the left over his talk pales in comparison with the literal heat he took last month. Ignoring his security team’s advice, he ran into a burning building to save his neighbor trapped in the flames. He rescued the woman and then went to the hospital with second-degree burns and smoke inhalation.

Cory Booker is a genuine hero. Not just to the woman he saved from that fire, but to the millions of poor and minority children trapped in a life of disappointment and failed dreams by what, in effect, is our burning public school system. Booker is trying to rescue those children, too. Please join him by making full school choice a reality in your community.

by Brendan Monaghan

Hello again, Tournament fans! After two weeks of voting, we’ve reached the Sweet 16 in the contest to determine who you the readers believe should be Mitt Romney’s running mate in November. This time, there were many surprises as a 1- a 2- and a 3-seed all went down in Round 2. Here are your matchups for the Regional Semifinals along with quick explanations as to what happened in the previous round. After all, they’re just a bunch of guys (and one girl) in suits if you don’t have a program. Finally, as a reminder of Mitt Romney’s rejection of the Chicago-style politics of the current administration, each computer can only vote once.

To vote in round #3 of the Oregon Catalyst GOP Veepstakes, click here.

South

Two Tea Party Senators square off in the South Region’s first semifinal. Florida freshman Marco Rubio got his second consecutive blowout win over Governor-turned-radio host Mike Huckabee. He was denied a Sunshine State showdown with Congressman Allen West, however, by way of South Carolina’s “Senator Tea Party,” Jim DeMint.

Both favorites advanced to meet in the other Southern semifinal. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Nikki Haley of South Carolina are the first and second Indian-American governors in American history, respectively. Veteran Jindal is more experienced and has better roots in the conservative movement, but freshman Haley has tremendous upside potential and recently swatted away an ethics scandal from her new political enemies.

East

New Jersey’s Chris Christie won the latest leg of the Hudson River Rivalry thanks to an easy triumph over New York’s Rudy Giuliani. The next installment may come as soon as next week, should the Rangers beat the Washington Capitals on Saturday night and advance to play the Devils in the Stanley Cup Eastern Conference Finals. Christie’s opponent will be Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, who triumphed over Puerto Rico’s longshot Luis Fortuno.

A pair of major upsets produced this unlikely Sweet 16 pairing. Seemingly safest of safe picks, Ohio Senator Rob Portman, narrowly lost to former UN Ambassador and Fox News pundit John Bolton. Meanwhile, second-seeded Senator Kelly Ayotte- thought by some to be a potential game-changer pick- lost to fellow freshman Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. Mason and Dixon couldn’t have drawn up a better border battle!

Midwest

Nobody in Round 2 got more votes than House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. He remains a strong favorite to win the region- but of course that’s up to you! His alternative is Senator John Thune of South Dakota, beating out Fox News Red Eye regular Thaddeus McCotter (who also doubles as a Congressman from Michigan in his spare time).

Speaking of favorites, you’ll see two more of them in this matchup. “My Man” Mitch Daniels, the outgoing Governor of Indiana, coasted in to the Sweet 16, probably doing so on his motorcycle. Meanwhile, it was Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty figuratively taking home Floyd of Rosedale and beating Iowa’s Steve King.

West

Call it a Colbert Bump? Outgoing Arizona Senator Jon Kyl gained unintentional popularity during the government shutdown crisis last year. Perhaps that was enough to get by Vancouver Congresswoman Jaimie Herrerra-Butler. He’ll be joined in the Sweet 16 by California’s Darrell Issa, Chair of the Oversight Committee. He advanced by knocking off the first #1 seed in the field, Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico.

Rounding out a truly wild West, Arizona Governor Jan Brewer is the last remaining woman in the Tournament and blasted her way in to the regional semis. She remains very popular among conservatives and could be used by Romney to shore up his right flank. You know, in case President Obama can’t do enough himself. Her opponent will be Congressman Greg Walden, who inexplicably still performs very well among Catalyst readers.

To follow along with the Round #3 voting, click here.

Round #1 information

Round #1 results

Round #2 results

Brendan is a graduate student at Portland State University, where he hosts the KPSU “Right Jab” radio program, and a regular contributor at Oregon Catalyst. Brendan is studying political science, and graduated from The Ohio State University in 2007, with a degree in political science.

by Dan Lucas

School districts across Oregon are facing additional, painful cuts. Rising PERS costs are obviously a problem, but many of these cuts would not have to be made if the governor and the state legislature made the K-12 state school fund a higher priority.

PERS

PERS does need reform, including the reforms recommended in Governor Kulongoski’s 2010 Reset Cabinet report. That report noted that, if it wasn’t reformed, PERS could ADD more than $1 billion to the general fund costs for state and school employees. The total state general and lottery fund budget is $14-15 billion, and so adding $1 billion just for increased PERS costs is a major problem. Governor Kitzhaber lacked the political courage to implement the PERS reforms recommended by his predecessor when Governor Kitzhaber negotiated the public employee union contracts last summer. The public employee unions he was negotiating with had contributed $750,000 to his campaign.

SHIFT FROM EDUCATION TO HUMAN SERVICES

Oregon schools get a little under half of their overall budgets from the K-12 state school fund. The remainder comes from property taxes, local levies and federal funding.

The K-12 state school fund in 2007-2009 was $6.2 billion. In 2009-2011 it was cut to $5.8 billion, and that’s where it remains in the current budget, even though the state’s general and lottery fund budget is now higher than it was in 2007-2009. Why hasn’t the K-12 budget been restored to the 2007-2009 level?

Conversely, the Department of Human Services (DHS) and Oregon Health Authority (OHA) general and lottery fund budgets have grown from $3.1 billion in 2007-2009 to $3.8 billion in the current 2011-2013 budget. That growth hasn’t been for unemployment – that’s handled by another state agency; and it hasn’t been for food stamps – that money comes from federal funds. In just one budget cycle, DHS grew by 1,300 employees – the size of the entire Department of State Police.

Governor Kulongoski warned of this in his 2010 Reset Cabinet report: “If we remain on the path we’re on, there will be further shifts in budget priorities toward human services and away from education”. Rep. Dennis Richardson (House Budget Co-Chair) recently echoed a similar sentiment: “the high cost of Oregon’s social programs is likely to cause further flat-lining of state support for K-12 education”.

WHAT CAN BE DONE

Passing the K-12 budget early in the legislative session was a good step, but more needs to be done. The K-12 budget needs to be made part of a “core fund” that is funded first at the previous level, along with prisons, state police and a limited set of key human services for the most vulnerable. Then, other agencies that depend on the General/Lottery funds would make their cases to the legislature for the remaining funds. This is the only way to stabilize school funding. Oregon already has two rainy day funds and they’re just being used to backfill funds that should have gone to K-12 but are being used to grow other agencies instead.

by Brendan Monaghan

What is Hillsboro thinking? Two years after Portland chased away the occasionally mildly-popular AAA Portland Beavers, Hillsboro wants to put Oregon back in the Minor League game. The plan, according to The Oregonian, is to convert an existing adult league baseball park in to a 4,500-seat stadium. With this, they hope to attract a future Single-A team. The stadium would have all the modern amenities and luxuries one could imagine (and why not?), including covered seating and a beer garden. What happens $14 million of city-backed bonds later is perhaps more of a mystery. However, what is clear is that city officials seem to be relying on as much pie-in-the-sky economic activity as planners elsewhere who have bought into stadium-based development.

To recap how we got here, Mayor Sam Adams gambled that Major League Soccer would be a much better draw for the Rose City than Minor League Baseball, and retrofitted PGE Park/Jeld-Wen Field accordingly. As these first two MLS seasons have indicated, Adams’ wild guess was wildly successful- the Timbers continue to sell out, the Beavers never could. Searching for a new home for the Beavers turned out to be a fruitless, futile endeavor. Looking beyond downtown- Lents, Milwaukie, Beaverton- planners quickly ran in to NIMBY concerns. Meanwhile, placing the team in its most logical home would have meant touching the third rail of Portland development and disturbing our apparently sacrosanct, white elephant mausoleum, Memorial Coliseum. Why the perpetually-vacant Coliseum could not be converted in to Memorial Stadium (or used for any other purpose than a perpetually-vacant building) is the Tamam Shud of Portland politics. Opponents did not extend their arguments much beyond “Because . . .”

Now Hillsboro wants a second bite at what is proving to be a rotting apple. The market for baseball in the Portland metro area is a niche one, when it exists. In their final five seasons, the Beavers never averaged more than 5,600 fans, leaving 20,000-seat PGE Park woefully empty. When it became clear Portland couldn’t find a home after Jeld-Wen’s conversion, the team skipped town and moved to Arizona- where the Tucson Padres continue to not draw well. Portland is scarcely alone in their apathy toward Minor League Baseball. As Hillsboro seeks a team from the Northwest League, so much as filling a 4,500-seat park would be an ambitious proposition. Of the eight teams in the Northwest League, only two could muster an average attendance above 4,000 fans. The novelty of a new game in town cannot be relied upon for Hillsboro either- the Padres actually drew fewer fans their first season in Tucson than they did their last in Portland.

Then there is the economic squeeze play that Hillsboro is playing. The city is banking on at least 100,000 fans- many commuting west from outside the city- placing them above average in the Northwest League for attendance. This, they hope, will produce $7.1 million in annual economic activity, thus rendering the project effectively revenue-neutral. However, recent trends have shown that stadium-based development, particularly when publicly-financed, doesn’t deliver. “There are lots of reasons to suspect that stadiums are not good investments,” said Rob Baade, president of the International Association of Sports Economists, in an ESPN.com article before the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. “There’s very little evidence that stadiums are anything more than a benign economic development in a neighborhood.”

Stadiums such as this one would be infrequently used, nominally empty all but 38 nights of the year. This creates an alternating negative cycle between dead time and heavy traffic, both being detrimental to surrounding businesses in their own way. These businesses, which are supposed to capture the fans’ discretionary spending in the form of pre-game dinners and post-game beers, rarely do in reality. For an illustration of this stadium-based development in practice, one need only visit the Rose Quarter, which was never seriously developed and adds very little to the area.

Wayne Gross of Hillsboro Parks and Recreation told The Oregonian their new baseball stadium “will be a great catalyst,” and “create more interest in baseball overall.” Stadiums have proven to be an expression of existing economic prowess, not an initiator of it. Hillsboro developers are relying on the old line that “if you build it, they will come.” While this might work in attracting a new or existing Single-A team, drawing in fans to seats- and more importantly, jobs and economic activity to Hillsboro- seems like more of a fantasy in the cornfields.

Brendan is a graduate student at Portland State University, where he hosts the KPSU “Right Jab” radio program, and a regular contributor at Oregon Catalyst. Brendan is studying political science, and graduated from The Ohio State University in 2007, with a degree in political science.