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Karl Rove: What the numbers mean behind Tuesday’s election

by In the news Saturday, November 7. 2009

Politics.serendipityThumb Karl Rove: What the numbers mean behind Tuesdays electionKarl Rove highlights this week from his Wall Street Journal column,

Barack Obama was said to have redrawn the electoral map by winning Virginia last year with 53% of the vote. On Tuesday, Republican Bob McDonnell flipped the state back to the GOP, winning his election for governor with 59% of the vote. Mr. Obama carried New Jersey easily last year with 57% of the vote. This year, despite being outspent 3-to-1, Republican Chris Christie ousted Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine there by 49% to 45%. Mr. Obama carried Pennsylvania last year by 10 points. On Tuesday, Republican Judge Joan Orie Melvin was elected to the state’s Supreme Court by 53% to 47%, leading a GOP sweep of six of seven statewide contests.

The trend here is that suburban and independent voters moved into the GOP column. The overall shift away from Democrats was 13 points in Virginia, 12 points in New Jersey, and eight points in Pennsylvania. Even a five-point swing in 2010 could bring a tidal wave of change. Today, Democrats enjoy 60 votes in the Senate, Republicans a mere 40. Had there been a five-point swing away from Democrats last fall, the party would have started this year with 54 seats and the Republicans 46…

.A five-point shift in 2006 would have left the GOP in control of the House. In 2008, a five-point shift would have produced a Democratic loss of six House seats rather than a gain of 21. It would also have put John McCain into the White House with 279 Electoral College votes to Mr. Obama’s 259.

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Posted by at 06:00 | Posted in Measure 37 | 7 Comments |Email This Post Email This Post |Print This Post Print This Post
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  • Maxine

    No matter what anyone says, this guy made 5 trips to NJ to “help” and all he did was cause the guy to lose by even more.
    How amusing.
    From 60 to 0 in 10 months.

  • Bill Sizemore

    Much will happen (or fail to happen) in the next 12 months that will greatly impact the 2010 elections. Last Tuesday was a very positive sign and gives Republicans hope and Democrats reason to pause.

    I doubt very much that Obama will be taken back by his party’s losses. His level of arrogance is so high that I don’t believe he will see the handwriting on the wall until election night 2012. One definition of pride is “to be lifted up as in a fog,” meaning you don’t see yourself clearly. It is a common malady of politicians, but Obama seems to be suffering with a severe case. This will blind him in the same way it blinds Pelosi and Reid, which means they will overreach far enough to bring about their own demise or at least their party’s.

    I look at Oregon and try to see what a shift would mean in the 2010 elections. The Fifh Congressional District could be taken, but that has always been possible. Taking control of the Oregon Senate is very possible, maybe even likely. The House could get closer to even.

    As for the governorship, well, it could be done. That’s a pretty tough nut to crack, but it could happen. The Democrats have nothing to offer but recycled old wood, but either one will have a D by his name on the ballot, and that’s usually all it takes in Multnomah County where voters are apparently not capable of ignoring the party label and voting for the candidate.

    • Recycler

      “That’s a pretty tough nut to crack, but it could happen. The Democrats have nothing to offer but recycled old wood,”

      That being a former 2-term governor and 2-term Secretary of State.

      And the Republicans? They have Alan Alley and Chris Dudley. I’d say recycling makes sense.

  • Voter

    Each time Pelosi tries to push through a bad bill no vote wants, she loses the Democrats another seat.

    • come again?

      Then why did the democrats just gain a seat a few days ago? And why have they gain dozens of seats since 2006, when she first became speaker?

      • Voter

        One was in a very liberal district, the other had the GOP nominee drop out 3 days before the election. The Dem still only won by 8% and will lose handily in November after his vote yesterday.

        You’re grasping if you think differently. You just lost 2 governorships which are state elections not cherry picked districts. You can keep fiddling all you want but my firt statement will be proven in November.

        • v person

          Cherry picked districts? The numbers are 256 to 170 something in the House. The Democrats just won a seat that has been Republican since the Civil war.

          Maybe you will be right next November. But you are not right at the moment.

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