Early vote results show CA problems for Obama. McCain surge?

The LA Times reports that 104,000 Republicans have voted early compared to 105,000 Democrat early voters in California. Both parties are tied by less than 1% difference in a solid blue state. This must be a cause of alarm for the Obama campaign and possible, and we do mean possible, quiet ground swell for the McCain campaign.

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Posted by at 11:02 | Posted in Measure 37 | 22 Comments |Email This Post Email This Post |Print This Post Print This Post
  • Jay Bozievich

    Traditionally in Oregon, R’s return their ballots earlier than D’s, I not sure about CA history but my guess is this is a non-story.

    • Alan

      Oh you are such a wet blanket.

    • Alex

      Maybe this is just a sign that people are finaly understanding the redistribution question and deciding that Obama is just a front for a Socialistic state. Polls have them neck and neck, and all the famous blacks seem to be getting headlines saying that not voting for Obama is racist. Seems to me that the left is running scared all of a sudden thinking that they might actually lose. Its funny how the left always falls back on the “racist” boogy man.

    • Barb

      In Washington State we wait until after the election to vote. The Democrats “found” votes in warehouses and other odd places 13 times after the election and forced two recounts in order to get Gregoire into the governor’s office.

      • Crawdude

        They will find enough votes to do it again Barb, cheating is their mantra!

      • Buckwheat19

        Hey ‘Chad”, do you mean Florida?

  • dean

    Hope springs eternal. By the time they get to 110,000 they will have run through all the Republicans left in California.

    • Reper

      Well they didn’t move to Oregon

  • DeVietro

    I also think this is a non-story. Its really just a statistical anomaly.

  • John Fairplay

    Democrats vote the vast majority of their dead on election day when the sheer number of ballots to be counted precludes any real scrutiny. Non story.

  • John in Oregon

    Past early turnout in California has generally favored Dem more per capita than Reps. That low early turn out pattern in California has held from opening day.

    Ohio early voting has followed the same pattern. Obama had expected to huge gains in early voting but only reached 20% of target.

    There are other non-poll indicators. In Fairfax county the GOP organizing get out the vote meeting meeting drew around 400-500 hundred people and stunned the coordinators, who have never seen turnout like this on the GOP side.

    In contrast Obama has 400 paid GOTV in the entire state of Virginia not counting the difference in intensity between the paid activists and the motivated volunteer.

    Another pattern also emerges. In several states (Colorado and east coast) where a Palin rally followed an Obama rally Palin usually pulls larger crowds. Sometimes 2 to 1. Several Palin rallies have had to move last minute to larger venues.

    Another observation at the Obama rally in Leesburg, VA last week noticed something very strange. 10,000 people attended the Obama rally, but almost half of them left part way through his speech. At McCain-Palin rallies people keep coming all the way to the end.

    What does the low early turn out mean? Probably not the PUMAS as I would expect they long ago decided to cross to McCain.

    For a low substance high Charismatic content campaign peeking early is a real danger. Could be dithering about the selection might be other things. Clearly murky.

  • Rupert in Springfield

    You know, the thing to keep in mind here is most of this sort of thing is really prep for the off chance that McCain wins the election. We know that if Obama wins the press will go on and on about how this America wants this president to succeed. They did it with Clinton when he never got a majority of the vote, you can bet if Obama wins 51% they will go on about a mandate. However, if McCain wins, they have set up a real nice way to, yet again, claim Republicans somehow stole the race. Weird early voting that is somehow anomalous will play right into that. If McCain were a democrat it would be portrayed as a remarkable come back victory. Since he is a republican I would expect Tass and Pravda to play up the election irregularities issues. This might be a part of it.

    • dean

      John…not sure where you get your data, but LA Times says the early voting in Ohio is going 57-35% for Obama. In Florida early voting McCain is ahead a bit, 49-45%, though he is behind on polling in both states by quite a lot.

      As for Palin out drawing Obama, please. Obama has been drawing tens of thousands, up to a hundred thousand at his staged events. If Palin were topping that we would know about it. At least Fox would report on it wouldn;t they?

      As for the PUMAS, no such thing. Obama is polling 90% among Democrats, same as the number of rEpublicans for McCain. But there are many more Democrats this year, and most of the independents are also now behind Obama thanks to Palin.

      Rupert…if McCain manages to eke out a win it will be by the narrowest of margins, probably a few electoral votes even while losing the popular vote. If Obama wins by 100 or more electoral votes and more than 5% popular, and the Dems pick up 6-8 Senate seats and 20-30 House seats, I would say we don’t need the media to tell us he has the wind at his back to make some serious policy changes.

      If McCain does “win” and faces strong Dem majorites in the House and Senate, what does he do with that? The Bush tax cuts are scheduled to expire, and the Iraqis are showing us the door with a fixed deadline. I mean…what exactly do you expect from him at this pont? He or Palin will be the weakest one term president in history.

      • Minnesota reader

        I love it!!! I have four hard core democrat uncles and aunts that live in Ca, Or. and Wa………ALL ARE VOTING FOR MCCAIN!!!..one even has a huge picture of Bill Clinton in her living room!! NONE trust him or believe in “spreading the wealth”. When I heard this… you could have knocked me over with a feather. This could be a REAGAN upset.

        I can’t imagine these are the only four hard core democrats in these three states that are voting for McCain.

        • dean

          No…I’m sure there are double thaqt number. Matbe triple. McCain should easily sweep the west coast.

          • minnesota reader

            Let’s face it…. early voting favors the dems… and the fact that it isn’t… could be interesting. Again… you have to understand that my uncles and aunts have probably NEVER voted for a republican (except one did vote for Reagan). They all wanted HILARY and are also mad at how OBAMA attacked her in the primaries…. it’s coming back to haunt him.

            Your going to be surprised dean…

            minnesota reader

    • Buckwheat19

      Sounds like people are getting the message that socialism and spreading the wealth is not the way to go. Next he will be talking about energy independence and programs for special needs children, oh wait………………………..

  • Bob Clark

    How bout some press concerning the Rossi-Greghoir race for governor in Washington. The presidential race seems over, and hearing about it over and over again is just like rubbing salt in this conservative’s wounds. Rossi is the best shot we conservatives have on the West coast. If he wins, it could have a ripple affect by putting a dent in the Oregon Gov’s West coast Climate Change (government intrusion) plan. Crossing fingers for Rossi.

  • Anonymous

    Racism will decide this race.

    Who wins depends on whether more usually non-voting black racists a la the good Rev Wright turn out vs how many white Dems wont’t vote for a black man.

    • Buckwheat19

      Who is the “black man” that you refer to? if you mean Sen. Obama, last time I checked he is as much white as he is black. Have you seen those photos of his mother and grandmother?

  • Brad

    Did any of you bother to read the article? Here is part of it:

    At the Atlantic, Marc Ambinger offers this analysis: “Early voting is very popular in California, and Republicans tend to vote at higher rates than Democrats. More conservative areas of the state tend to vote early; Los Angeles County traditionally has the lowest early-voting rate. Don’t know if the above statistics are correct, but if they are, they’re not usual for that state… More importantly though, if Republicans believe that the party breakdown of who is voting early is indicative, then what do they think about what is going on in Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina? Verdict: Nothingburger.”

    • minnesota reader


      Did he write this article before or after the poll?…

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