Poll: Republicans make big gains in 2009

Generic Congressional Ballot.
Republicans Take Small Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot
Tuesday, March 17, 2009

– Support for the Democratic Congressional candidates fell to a new low over the past week, allowing the GOP to move slightly head for the first time in recent years in the Generic Congressional Ballot.

– The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 41% said they would vote for their district’s Republican candidate while 39% would choose the Democrat.

Investors now favor Republicans by a 46% to 36% margin, while non-investors would vote Democratic by a 45% to 33% margin.

– Democrats began the year holding a six or seven point lead over the GOP for the first several weeks of 2009. Over the past month, the gap has been smaller, with Democrats holding a two-to-four point lead. It remains to be seen whether the current results reflect lasting change or statistical noise.

– Over the past year, Democratic support has ranged from a low of 39% to a high of 50%. In that same time period, Republicans have been preferred by 34% to 41% of voters nationwide.

– Separate Rasmussen polling released last week found that ratings for Congressional leaders of both parties have changed little over the past month and remain largely unfavorable.

– Just 19% believe Congress has passed legislation to improve life in America over the past year.

– Consumer and investor confidence has improved over the past week. Confidence improved more among Democrats than Republicans and unaffiliateds, perhaps one indication that the President’s effort to talk up the economy had an impact.