Looking at Measure 66-67 dynamics

Analysis From Lindholm Company Blog

Measures 66 and 67 are probably better seen as a package deal. The legislature passed them as two parts of the same plan and opponents circulated petitions against both of them together.

Measures 66 and 67 are probably better seen as a package deal. The legislature passed them as two parts of the same plan and opponents circulated petitions against both of them together.

This post analyzes these measures as a package deal.

This graphic adds a “Combined” pseudo-question to help with the analysis. A “Yes” vote means yes on both measures. Hence, it is a measure of baseline “Yes.” A “No” vote means no on both measures. Hence, it is a measure of baseline “No.” The “Swing” percentage includes those who are yes and/or no on only one measure or undecided on both.

The “Swing” percentage soars to 40%. This amplifies the conclusion that there is no solid coalition built for either yes or no on taxes.

Measure 66 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 66: Raises tax on household income at and above $250,000 (and $125,000 for individual filers). Reduces income taxes on unemployment benefits in 2009. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Measure 67 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 67: Raises $10 Corporate Minimum Tax, Business Minimum Tax, Corporate Profits Tax. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Survey Methodology:
400 live telephone interviews of likely January Oregon Special election voters were conducted November 30 through December 2, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent (with 95 percent confidence).

This survey was conducted as part of a long-term project studying Oregon politics and not for any political committee. As of the time this survey was conducted, Lindholm Research was not working for either the Yes or No sides.