National Review: Reasons Corniles may beat Congressman Wu

National Review Online gave a review of 13 selected congressional races including that of Democrat Congressman David Wu and Republican challenger Rob Cornilles. The article spends more time giving reasons for hope than reasons to count the race over. Unseating an incumbent is difficult, but below are some brief reasons why David Wu is vulnerable and Rob Corniles may pull it out.

2. Rob Cornilles vs. David Wu, Oregon’s 1st District.

Reasons the challenger should have no chance: Wu, first elected in 1998, won 71 percent of the vote in 2008; the last “serious challenge” to Wu, in 2004, held him to 58 percent. This is a D+8 district.

Reasons the challenger has a chance: The local press notes that President Obama’s approval ratings this district are not great: 50 percent approval, 46 percent disapproval. Cornilles’s campaign conducted a poll of the district and found their man trailing modestly, 40 percent to 46 percent. Like Obama, Wu has been touting the recovery; Cornilles is hitting him for claiming a recovery that the district doesn’t feel and accusing Wu of “mailing five direct-mail pieces at taxpayer expense through the congressional franking privilege.” Rob Cornilles trails Wu in cash, but has raised more than $607,000 and has $256,000 in cash on hand.”