Oregon Governor Poll puts Dudley and Kitzhaber painfully close

John Kitzhaber (D)… 40%
Chris Dudley (R)…39%
Richard, Esterman (I) 2%
Other…. 3%
(Undecideds includes don’t know)

Below is Riley Research Press Release

Riley Research Associates surveyed 392 Oregon voters regarding their opinions on topics of current interest. The scientific telephone poll is representative of Oregon’s “likely” voting public, including only those who are certified as having voted in at least two of the past four elections, although a majority of respondents (52 percent) had voted in four of the past four elections.

A sample of 392 is accurate to within +/-4.95 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Interviews took place from August 31st through September 9th, 2010.

The sample demographics are comparable to Oregon’s voting population, including relative proportions for political party, gender, age, voting history and region. Regional breakouts were defined by county, and

The head-to-head governor’s race question was the first question of the poll, although the order of candidate names was randomly rotated. The language on the cross tabulation results page appears exactly as the question was asked.

This report includes an executive overview and the supporting demographic cross tabulations, and is also available at: www.RileyResearch.com

We have a dead heat in the Oregon governor’s race. With John Kitzhaber at 40 percent and Chris Dudley at 39 percent, it’s a statistical tie.

One of every six voters remains undecided (16 percent).

Unlike recent previous gubernatorial races in Oregon, no minor party candidate is receiving any significant share of the vote.

Some of the demographic differences from the cross tabs suggest:

– Kitzhaber is polling better among independent voters, currently winning 38 percent to Dudley’s 29 percent, although 24 percent of independent voters remain undecided.

– Kitzhaber polls higher among Oregon’s most consistent voters. Of those who have voted in four out of the last four elections (4/4), the former governor gets 44 percent, as compared to Dudley’s 39 percent.

– Dudley is polling stronger among Republicans (79 percent) than Kitzhaber is among Democrats (69 percent). Dudley’s greatest strength is in the Southern and Central/Eastern parts of the state (at 58 and 54 percent, respectively).

– Kitzhaber’s geographic strength is in the Portland, Willamette Valley, and Coastal regions (at 45, 42, and 52 percent, respectively).

– Neither candidate polls significantly better among one gender nor the other (in contrast to previously released reports showing Kitzhaber polling strongly among women, with Dudley polling strongly among men).

  • Rupert in Springfield

    Im kind of surprised the gender polling evened out. I would have thought that would have remained consistent until the end.

    I think unless Dudley is up by at least 8 in the polls we are pretty much looking at four years of Kitzhaber come November. It will probably be a very close election and unless Dudley wins by at least five percentage points Kitzhaber will certainly insist on the Franken, Queen Christine “count until I win” strategy.

    • Not unless the Dem politicos release their stanglehold. Ha!

      “Oregon, My Oregon”
      Land of the Empire Builders, Land of the Golden West;
      Conquered and held by free men, Fairest and the best.
      On-ward and upward ever, Forward and on, and on;
      Hail to thee, Land of the Heroes, My Oregon.

      Land of the rose and sunshine, Land of the summer’s breeze;
      Laden with health and vigor, Fresh from the western seas.
      Blest by the blood of martyrs, Land of the setting sun;
      Hail to thee, Land of Promise, My Oregon.

  • Bob Clark

    Chris needs to score well in the TV debate. This isn’t Chris’ strengths. Chris is by far more uplifting and likeable than Kitzhaber when you meet him personally. I think Chris would make a far better salesman for hocing the state’s export businesses to overseas markets. Kitzhaber strikes me as an elitist who doesn’t seem to mind if Oregon’s economy continues to gather more moss.

    • a retired professor

      Kitzhaber is an emergency room physician, former public official, who went to Dartmouth.

      Dudley is a millionaire basketball player, investment counselor, who went to Yale.

      Please explain who is the elitist here.

  • valley p

    Dudley seems like a nice guy. Tall…which is good. Really nice. I think he voted once or twice. Clearly he is the guy for running a multi-billion dollar service delivery enterprise.

  • a retired professor

    The business where Dudley got a Washington residence to avoid Oregon income tax, but then kept a place in Oregon where he actually spent most of his time, while perhaps not legally a violation of the law, is not going to help him.

    • valley p

      To be fair prof, he was not avoiding a tax on his Oregon earned income. He was avoiding Oregon taxing his other earned income, like from investments.

      But, the larger point should be, what has this guy ever done in life that remotely demonstrates he is qualified to govern a state? He seems to have had no interest in politics or public policy until this past year. He has never run a business. He has never run anything. He has never been elected or appointed to anything. What are people thinking?

      • a retired professor

        All true about his lack of anything resembling a background of any kind in public affairs.

        What are people thinking? The Portlanders: basketball! They also knew that Alley couldn’t win.

        Also: a very weak Democratic candidate and horrible Oregon government mismanagement and economic scene. People are hard up for an alternative.

        It’s too bad Oregon throws up such poor alternatives. But maybe it fits the citizenry here.

        • conservatively speaking

          Meanwhile, ret’d professor, what about Jane Cease’s DEMinished capacity and subsequent palimony paid her by her CONsorts in the DNC, etc.? Wholly havin’ a cow, Mon – it’s past time to end the goober tuber DEMbacle anointments perpetrated on Oregonian’s since Jan 12, 1987. Selah.

          • valley p

            And here I thought conservatives were for English only education.

          • Anonymous

            Hard to understand your incoherent post. An early start today? But if you’re talking about Kitzhaber’s girlfriend, I would just say we’ll have to see. Ditto with the Oregonian article about Dudley.

            I think I’ve made it clear that I don’t think we have a great choice of candidates here.

      • Anonymous

        “He has never run a business. He has never run anything”

        LOL…Sounds like the Vacationer-In-Chief Obama (somewhere in Kenya a village is missing its idiot).

        Dudley’s lack of qualifications is what makes him perfectly qualified to hold elected office in Oregon. Oregon has lots of elected people who have never done anything in the private sector.

        • Anonymous

          Sorry, “lack of qualifications” is not a qualification. Governor of Oregon is not an entry-level position.

  • Ron Marquez

    …..”Kitzhaber’s geographic strength is in the Portland, Willamette Valley, and Coastal regions (at 45, 42, and 52 percent, respectively).”…..

    The coastal region is far bluer than I thought. Would have liked the poll to include a “leaning towards” category instead of undecided.

  • Scatcat

    Look like I better start packing my bags

    • Anonymous

      You sound like all those actors who said they would leave the country if Bush got re-elected in 2004.

      • Scatcat

        If I did not have 20,00 debt and no job we wold not be having this discussion. I would be in Texas. Still if the Democrats win I may not have any choice but to sell all I have, keep sentimental items with a fried, abandon the apartment and be a drifter till I reach Texas.

        • Anonymous

          If you’re jobless and $20,000 in debt, how exactly will the election of either candidate effect you? Will one cause you to become more unproductive than the other?

  • Anonymous

    Kit haber will get elected because the folks that count the ballots will keep counting and keep finding more ballots until the democrat is elected. It’s the way it is in third world countries like Oregon.

    • Anonymous

      Making excuses already? You must think Dudley is in trouble!

  • Anonymous

    “Governor of Oregon is not an entry-level position”

    LOL…you could have fooled me

  • John in Oregon

    Hi retired prof. I believe you are correct that the Oregonian hit piece has done some damage to Dudley’s campaign. I will back up that hit piece comment in a moment. First some background.

    1] Dudley paid income tax on every dime he earned as a Trailblazer in Oregon.
    2] Dudley paid additional income tax to New York, Illinois, ETC on every dime he earned in that state when he played a game as a Trailblazer in that state.

    To illustrate with an example. Not yet retired Professor resides in Oregon and earns pay of $150,000. John not in Oregon resides in Vancouver and earns pay of $150,000 in Portland. Both John and Prof invested $100,000 in a company called NES located in the state of Jackson. Both received $5,000 per month in dividend income. NES was bought out by BEC resulting in payment of $1,000,000 each for the stock held by John and Prof.

    The state of Jackson has an income tax of 8%, dividends are taxed at the same rate and Jackson has no cap gains tax. All tax increases currently on the books have taken effect. No deductions calculated.

    Income ……………………………… Prof …………………… John
    Wages ………………………………. $150,000 ……………. $150,000
    Dividends …………………………… $60,000 ……………… $60,000
    Cap Gains ………………………….. $900,000 …………….. $900,000

    Tax ………………………………….. Prof …………………… John
    OR Income Tax……………………..$16,500 ……………… $16,500
    OR Dividend income tax ………….$6,600 ……………….. $0
    OR cap gains…………………………$99,000 ……………… $0
    JA Dividend income…………………$4,800 ……………….. $4,800
    FED Income tax……………………..$47,700 ……………… $47,700 … (31%)
    FED Dividend tax……………………$23,880 ……………… $23,880 … (39,8%)
    FED Cap gain………………………..$392,000 ……………. $392,000 .. (43.6%)
    Total tax……………………………..$590,480 ……………. $484,880

    Note here the difference. Just like Dudley, the only tax John not in Oregon saves is wealth that wasn’t created in Oregon or earned in Oregon. In other words, Oregon collected $105,600 in tax from Not yet retired Professor that Oregon did not earn simply because Not yet retired Professor has his house in Oregon.

    For some time here I have been outspoken about the Legacy Media bias and slanted news coverage. Its reasonable that I explain why. Forty years ago while attending college I worked full time to earn my way. I worked in an industry that had an adjunct news operation. Although I was not involved in that part of the operation one thing was made very clear to everyone. Injecting opinion and false reporting was NOT ALLOWED. PERIOD.

    That was then and is now my yardstick for news coverage.

    In looking at the Oregonian hit piece on Dudley’s campaign I would make several observations.

    The Oregonian article uses language that intentionally causes the reader to assume that arranging ones finances to avoid paying taxes that Oregon did not earn is somehow improper. Then several paragraphs later they say Of Course it’s Legal as though somehow it shouldn’t be. That’s pushing the envelope and yet not the worst the Oregonian does.

    The false reporting is far more egregious. I have heard what Lee Cory, a Portland area businessman had to say about what he told the Oregonian and what they published. Cory had purchased the house and said “it was clear that he [Dudley] had lived there.” No surprise there, of course Dudley had lived there in the past. Cory also said there was a knock down bed, a pool table, refrigerator and some old luggage in the crawl space. Describing the refrigerator Cory said there was some leftovers including something so old was hard to recognize what it might have been.

    From this the Oregonian tells us that Dudley had still been using the house.

    Cory had the Oregonian read back the quote attributed to him. He told them it was INCORRECT. They used it anyway. That is out right knowing falsification of factual content of the article.

    Jeff Mapes attempts to rehabilitate the Oregonian article by saying that Dudly admitted using the Portland house after he bought the house in Washington. Excuse me!!! Dudly is in Portland overnight and uses the house which hasnt sold? Should Dudley rent a hotel room to satisfy Mr. Mapes sensibilities?

    But Mapes continues saying that Dudley couldn’t explain why the new owners of the Portland house found food in the refrigerator. Excusssse me!!!! Odds and ends leftovers including something so old was hard to recognize what it might have been is food?? Really??? Tell me Mr. Mapes, how many months had it been in there?

    The fact is it’s an Oregonian hit piece. End of discussion.

    I guess that explains why the Oregonian has shrunk down smaller than the Times News, the news paper in the town of 20,000 where I grew up.

    • valley p

      Now please explain to us what qualifies Dudley to be governor of Oregon.

    • a retired professor

      With that much income, including dividends, that unretired prof obviously probably doesn’t work at an Oregon public university!

      But I get your point. The ordinary working guy who pays his Oregon taxes is being taken for a ride by the high rollers who claim to live out of state. I’m more inclined to vote for Kitzhaber, or perhaps vote for the candidate who increasingly is my favorite, “Nobody”. (Am voting for Nobody in the Art Robinson vs. Peter DeFazio contest.)

      I’ll leave it to Dudley to explain the circumstances of his two homes. But I heard him on Lars Larson today, and he is none too articulate. Though what he says is not unintelligent.

      But vp is right — what qualifies this guy to be Governor of Oregon — other than his fan base and his vanity?

      • John in Oregon

        > *With that much income, including dividends, that unretired prof obviously probably doesn’t work at an Oregon public university!*

        You have me on that one sir. I wouldn’t even attempt to answer.

        BTW did you see my references to the Weissberg aritcles?

        Robert Weissberg “Should the Worst Schools Get the Best Teachers?”
        Robert Weissberg “Midas Muffler Not Canada is the Model for Health Care Reform”.

        Two others I fond interesting were”

        Christopher Chantrill “Private Schools for the Poor”
        James Tooley “The Beautiful Tree:A personal journey into how the world’s poorest people are educating themselves”.

        • a retired professor

          No, I had missed your posting these.

          The Weissberg piece on the best teachers appears to be material he used in his book, not surprising.

          The stuff on health care reform is interesting, maybe a piece of the puzzle of what to do about our health care system, which for some time I have thought was on the verge of some sort of drastic change. I doubt that Obamacare is the last word.

          The stuff on private schools in poor countries — if I understand correctly — does not, I’m afraid, have much salience for the American situation. The poor people in those stories are much like past waves of American immigrants, who were highly motivated and often highly intelligent. I would bet that they are not typical of those poor countries; rather, the early wave of ambitious, motivated people. Unfortunately, unlike the typical “poor” Americans who populate the “failing” schools.

  • John in Oregon

    Assuming that question is serious, > *Now please explain to us what qualifies Dudley to be governor of Oregon.* I say that, the proffered question is asked of R candidates always and D candidates never. Thus becoming a Sword of Damocles used to bash and batter the R candidate.

    If the question is taken seriously first its necessary to determine what precisely constitutes qualified.

    A highly educated observer once said that the first 100 names in the Boston phone directory were superior to the entire faculty of Harvard University, what we used to call egg heads but we now call the ruling class.

    The line may sound like a quip, however it remains that historically “egg heads” have often turned out poorly as rulers. Further, that observation recognized that more common sense can be found by a random selection off the street than in the Ivory Tower, Halls of Congress or the Manhattan Media Complex. The more direct way to say it. If you want to find common sense talk to the people on main street.

    Judging from the voters pamphlet for Metro, Multnomah County and City positions the “qualified” standard is different. Multiple candidates listing occupation, background, or experience as; assistant director of county planning, staff director of city commissioner X, and a myriad of other government or commission positions. IE working in government.

    That would sound like the qualification for being in government is being in government. Nepotism at best and certainly a relationship of an incestuous nature. The fox guarding the hen house at the very least.

    Something like saying Bill Gates is not qualified to teach a high school computer class or Linus Pauling unqualified to teach biology because they lack a background of any kind in education.

    Consider the flip side question. What makes a candidate disqualified?

    If the Oregonian is an example the answer would be owning a home and a house. Even if the house is on the market for sale. You know, like suggesting that John Q Public might have run a stop sign for a right turn at the sign. Like the signs here in Portland labeled right turn permitted without stopping. Its proper but somehow its not.

    Sooo, although the term qualified is often a political tactic, qualifications deemed something the opposition candidate is not, here is my take for both candidates.

    The state of Oregon faces a $4 billion reduction in spending from the last state budget. That’s a real reduction, money we don’t have. Unlike the last 20 years we can’t increase spending.

    Dudley: His early career was in competitive sports, professional Basketball. Dudley learned to compete in an environment where failure was immediately displayed on the score board. An environment in which failure today is an opportunity to do different and better tomorrow. He worked in the private sector.

    Kitzhaber: As an ER doctor he learned to make instantaneous decisions in an environment where no descent was allowed. It’s an environment of intense pressure that burns out most in a short period.

    Dudley: After professional sports Dudley used his degree as a licensed financial adviser. A diabetic himself, he created an Oregon-based foundation to improve the lives of diabetic children. He volunteered as an assistant coach for Lake Oswego High School where he mentored UCLA-bound star Kevin Love.

    Kitzhaber: After the ER he moved to politics where his progressive view of government meshed with his urge to control other peoples environment. Kitzhaber’s major achievement was the Oregon health plan which placed Medicaid medical decision making in the hands of Oregon government.

    Dudley: Represented his union as a professional athlete.

    Kitzhaber: Is supported by the union with which he will negotiate as governor.

    There is a lot more compare and contrast, nevertheless I think that the point has been made that being qualified isnt a simple mathematical formula. Each voter will have his or her own view

    For me previous government involvement is a potential black mark. For those that want government to do for them it’s a plus.

    As I was writing about the ER room environment I connected a dot to another industry.

    The image most of the public have of the airline cockpit is the Captain in charge barking orders to be obeyed without question. Much like the ER. That image has not been accurate for years.

    Following several accidents in which minor errors cascaded into major crashes the airline industry and FAA changed to Cockpit Resource Management, (CRM). Under CRM the copilot and flight engineer must disagree vocally and forcefully with actions they feel to be unsafe. The Captain is now required to brief the copilot on the instrument approach he plans to fly. Cockpit operations are shared!!! The result is greatly improved safety. Two examples.

    The cockpit team and a DC-10 instructor pilot who happened to be a passenger brought a DC-10 to an emergency landing at Sioux City, Iowa. They did so with NO FLIGHT CONTROL and only changing engine thrust to control the aircraft. The result. 184 people on the aircraft survived.

    In another example the cockpit team made an emergency water landing of an Airbus in New York’s east river. Zero fatalities.

    Dudley: When the Trailblazers lost a game Dudley and the team worked to do better.

    Kitzhaber: When people resisted Kitzhaber pronounced Oregon ungovernable.

    Dudley: Played Basketball on a team.

    Kitzhaber: Put the I in the word teIam.

    • valley p

      “If the question is taken seriously first its necessary to determine what precisely constitutes qualified. ”

      “Generally qualified” would suffice. What is your minimum standard? Any job in the world has at least minimum qualifications.

      “The line may sound like a quip…”

      The live was quip. From Buckley. Not meant to be taken seriously.

      “If you want to find common sense talk to the people on main street. ”

      Good luck with that. But even if true, Dudley is hardly a common person. He has led the pampered life of a professional athlete. Catered to, cared for, pampered, and kow-towed. His working life was essentially a part time seasonal job that paid millions of dollars a year. In short, he lacks everyday experience. That aside, what is HIS demonstrated common sense?

      “That would sound like the qualification for being in government is being in government. ”

      Dudley does not just want to “be in” government. he wants to be put in charge of administering the entire government of the state of Oregon. Your state and my state. A qualification for running the state should be familiarity with how the state is run (Kitzhaber,) or familiarity with running other large organizations (Meg Whitman,) or at least some demonstrated interest in politics (Ronald Reagan before running for governor). Dudley has none of these.

      “Something like saying Bill Gates is not qualified to teach a high school computer class ”

      Not at all. Gates has proven he knows a bit about computers. Dudley has proven nothing about his knowledge of government.

      “Consider the flip side question. What makes a candidate disqualified? ”

      Easy answer. Lack of qualifications. Would you hire an engineer to design a bridge who had (a) never studies engineering (b) never designed a bridge (c) never worked on a team designing a bridge and (d) has not demonstrated the first clue about bridges?

      “although the term qualified is often a political tactic”

      Treating it like a trick question is not an answer. Its a simple question.

      “The state of Oregon faces a $4 billion reduction in spending from the last state budget. That’s a real reduction, money we don’t have. Unlike the last 20 years we can’t increase spending.”

      Yes, and out of the gate Dudley wants to reduce the tax intake further and INCREASE spending on education. So by your own statement he just disqualified himself.

      “I think that the point has been made that being qualified isn’t a simple mathematical formula. Each voter will have his or her own view ”

      No one asked for a mathematical formula. You seem to think this guy is qualified to run a multi billion dollar public enterprise. I think you base this on him not being a Democrat, and on not being Kitzhaber. I’m saying that should not be enough. He should have passed some minimal objective threshold that demonstrates his ability to do this job. If he hasn’t then you (Republicans) should have recruited a candidate who has.

      What is going on here is a demonstration of the Republican party’s disdain for government. They don’t believe that the services government delivers matter. Government is simply a device for taking money from hard working people and handing it to the undeserving. Therefore anyone who advocates less of it is fit to govern.

      If you did not believe this you would not support the likes of Chris Dudley, who has demonstrated zero qualifications for the job.

  • Anonymous

    I love the absolute disrespect we see towards the President of the United States, simply because he is a democrat. Chris Dudley has said NOTHING of substance, and the answer is, well, dem’s are bad, so’s im gonna run to a red state if they win.

  • John in Oregon

    Lets get to the heart of the matter of what is qualified. It is found in this. William F Buckley said that the first 100 names in the Boston phone directory were superior to the entire faculty of Harvard University. Your view is > * The live (sic) was quip. From Buckley. Not meant to be taken seriously.*

    No, the quip was this, as a graduate of Yale, the egg head ruling class that Buckley chose to lampoon was Harvard.

    Buckley meant exactly what he said. That the people are best suited to make their own choices is the heart of a conservative constitutional republic. Limited, enumerated power is loaned to government by the people. While people may on occasion make bad decisions for themselves they can learn and make better decisions. When ruling class government makes those decisions they are best almost never, and the people cannot change them.

    I believe in individual liberty and the right of the people to make choices. You believe that the people are incompetent requiring a ruling class to impose the proper decision from above. You said so very clearly.

    In response to the view that if you want to find common sense talk to the people on main street your response was direct. > *Good luck with that.*

    So long as that is your view no other candidate will be qualified. Kinship with the government class is required and Kitzhaber is your man.

    Everyone should be aware that _the people do not agree._

    The seeds were planted back in 2006. The pendulum began to swing back to Dem. Partially due to Democratic party tactics. Nevertheless there was an undercurrent of resistance to spending, Bush never vetoed a spending bill. we saw this in Oregon as conservative voters said they would not vote for Ron Saxton. They refused any longer to vote for the lesser of two evils.

    The pendulum swung Dem.

    That was stronger in 2008 with more voices saying they would not vote for McCain as the lesser bad choice. Obamas campaign was remarkable in the battle ground states, eking out a marginal win in nearly all. Yet there is more than a little evidence that McCain lost may votes on the back of people refusing to accept the lesser.

    Even before the election the people said no. No TARP. No bailouts. Stop!!! And the government ruling class chugged on.

    The pendulum was far left Dem and rage built. Stimulus, bailouts, spending and takeover. Rick Santelli put a name to the anger, TEA party. Later came 9-12 and the opposition grew.

    The pendulum stopped. Then changed direction.

    Now the remarkable happened. The new direction ignored the Republicans. The swing between D and R was gone.

    The people proceeded to take back and remake the Republican party. Delaware, Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Alaska, Florida, Utah, Nevada, Massachusetts, Colorado. The people will choose the candidates!!!

    I never fail to be amazed. Someone I never expected gets it. Chris Mathews of all progressive left people said;

    *”* I supposed I had my eyes on something different. While others were seeing dead people, the defeated Mike Castle, who was supposed to be strong this November, I saw the strength of the flames that consumed him and will consume many others this rapidly approaching election night. I have waited all my adult life for an election in which voters have the fire to reach up and burn those who have been running the show for decades. But I didn’t know it would come from the right and center.

    2010 could be the first year in modern times when being in office in Washington and part of Washington is the worst possible credential when facing voters. I don’t know how far the fire will burn. Based upon last night’s returns, I expect it has a long way to go. It could topple the House and, yes, the U.S. Senate. It could bring the defeat of people who feel even now they are not endangered. It could produce an election night spectacle of name brand politicians standing before stance supporters saying their careers are kaput.

    Why is this happening? Because this economic system is failing to produce the security and opportunity people have come to expect in this country. In this middle-class country, the middle class are scared and when people are scared, they get angry. They sense a rot at the top and are ready to chop it off.

    If the plan of those in power to raise a ton of cash and run nasty TV ads saying you can`t vote for this new person, that he or she is flawed — I expect the voter will say, “Are you telling me I have no choice but to vote for you? Are you saying that I, this little voter out there, dare not take a chance on someone who has not yet let me down as you have? If that is what you’re telling me, that I have no choice, well, Mr. Big Stuff, you just have to wait — stay up late election night and see what I have done. *”*