Oregon Governor Poll puts Dudley and Kitzhaber painfully close

John Kitzhaber (D)… 40%
Chris Dudley (R)…39%
Richard, Esterman (I) 2%
Other…. 3%
Undecided….16%
(Undecideds includes don’t know)

Below is Riley Research Press Release

Riley Research Associates surveyed 392 Oregon voters regarding their opinions on topics of current interest. The scientific telephone poll is representative of Oregon’s “likely” voting public, including only those who are certified as having voted in at least two of the past four elections, although a majority of respondents (52 percent) had voted in four of the past four elections.

A sample of 392 is accurate to within +/-4.95 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Interviews took place from August 31st through September 9th, 2010.

The sample demographics are comparable to Oregon’s voting population, including relative proportions for political party, gender, age, voting history and region. Regional breakouts were defined by county, and

The head-to-head governor’s race question was the first question of the poll, although the order of candidate names was randomly rotated. The language on the cross tabulation results page appears exactly as the question was asked.

This report includes an executive overview and the supporting demographic cross tabulations, and is also available at: www.RileyResearch.com

We have a dead heat in the Oregon governor’s race. With John Kitzhaber at 40 percent and Chris Dudley at 39 percent, it’s a statistical tie.

One of every six voters remains undecided (16 percent).

Unlike recent previous gubernatorial races in Oregon, no minor party candidate is receiving any significant share of the vote.

Some of the demographic differences from the cross tabs suggest:

– Kitzhaber is polling better among independent voters, currently winning 38 percent to Dudley’s 29 percent, although 24 percent of independent voters remain undecided.

– Kitzhaber polls higher among Oregon’s most consistent voters. Of those who have voted in four out of the last four elections (4/4), the former governor gets 44 percent, as compared to Dudley’s 39 percent.

– Dudley is polling stronger among Republicans (79 percent) than Kitzhaber is among Democrats (69 percent). Dudley’s greatest strength is in the Southern and Central/Eastern parts of the state (at 58 and 54 percent, respectively).

– Kitzhaber’s geographic strength is in the Portland, Willamette Valley, and Coastal regions (at 45, 42, and 52 percent, respectively).

– Neither candidate polls significantly better among one gender nor the other (in contrast to previously released reports showing Kitzhaber polling strongly among women, with Dudley polling strongly among men).