Where are Portland’s climate refugees?

 by Bob Clark

We Portlanders hear rumblings in the halls of our county and regional governments about a potential population spike resulting from global warming. In this scenario, people supposedly flee from southern states to places of more temperate climate such as the Portland Metropolitan Area (PMA), causing the latter an incremental surge in population. Metro Oregon Government (Metro) does not include this specific scenario in its published population forecasts, but you frequently hear of government planners and even Metro President Tom Hughes speak of this potential scenario. This Climate Refugee Scenario got its launch in 2008, when a city of Portland Water Department planner (Lorna Stickel) asked a Metro economist, “Does the population projection…account for the possibility of climate change refugees?” (“Look Out, Oregon, for a global warming land rush;” Jeremy Lang, The Oregonian, October 5, 2008.)

Since the launch of the Climate Refugee Scenario in 2008, a new census has been taken by the U.S. Census Bureau for the year 2010. The notion of global warming itself dates back decades, being popularized as a governmental issue by Al Gore back in the 1990s when he was Vice President. One should think for the Climate Refugee Scenario to have significant veracity (at this time) the last two decades would show actual rates of population growth in the PMA and Metro area higher than those of Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida. Yet the actual population data for the last two decades of global warming show quite the opposite. Here are the actual average annual population growth rates by area and state for the ten years 2000 through 2010: Seven county PMA (1.45%), three county Metro area (1.29%), Oregon (1.14%), Texas (1.89%), Arizona (2.22%), Nevada (3.06%), and Florida (1.64%). Clearly, harsh climate in southern states doesn’t seem to be especially boosting Metro area population, and more likely other factors remain most prominent in explaining population growth differentials. (See more population data below.) One might also think if by the year 2060 (Metro Government’s forecast horizon) southern state climates were to become drier than currently per scenario, projects might be launched to bring surplus waters from northern tier states to southern tier states. Clearly, the Climate Refugee Scenario is steeped in speculation.

The Oregonian article referenced above does note skepticism of the Climate Refugee Scenario even among Oregon environmental and government leaders. Metro President Hughes seems to be using the Climate Refugee Scenario to help justify expanding the urban growth boundary (a bit more than otherwise). Expanding the urban growth boundary may be a good thing seeing how local area business leaders complain of a shortage of shovel ready industrial sites (per a 2010 Westside Economic Forum gathering of business leaders). I just wish our local governments would stop using sensationalism to move an issue through the morass of government processes; or perhaps better yet, drop both the sensationalism and the government morass. I also wonder if we will ever be able to raise our relative ranking in incomes and wealth when our various governments seem to operate on rather extreme and/or speculative beliefs.

Perhaps, too, the Climate Refugee Scenario is symptomatic of an over indulgence in government planning works. After all, the Oregonian article referenced above ends with the city of Portland Water Department planner saying [seemingly gleefully] about the Climate Refugee Scenario, “Plan, plan, plan.”

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“Look out, Oregon, for a Global warming land rush” link: http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2008/10/look_out_oregon_for_a_global_w.html