by Bill Post
I have had all night to think about this and although I was a pretty ticked off little boy last night, I’m a lot more cooled off this morning in the aftermath of last night’s debacle in Oregon’s first congressional district (CD-1).
I truly believe that Rob Cornilles would make a GREAT congressman from Oregon and I am proud of his very clean, very positive campaign. He is a genuinely good man, an honorable man and having gotten to know him over the last couple years, I am proud to call him a friend.
BUT, I would strongly advise him NOT to run again. We, of course, get to go through all of this again in May with the primary for the normal 2-year term for this congressional seat. Then, of course, the November General Election.
Though I put great hope and faith in Rob, I said it many, many times after the November 2010 election: “no Republican will ever win in CD-1”. I am now firmly convinced of that. Some would say if he had run more on the right than he did, then he would have stood a better chance. I am afraid that is incorrect thinking and I base that on the numbers alone. The Democrats of NW Oregon outnumber the Republicans by a huge margin and with vote-by-mail they get out the vote in a much higher percentage.
Just look at the results of the last 4 elections. Independents are meaningless at this point for a Republican, as they do not vote GOP. Rob ran as good a campaign as any Republican has in many years and I am very proud of having had a chance to be a part of it. I greatly admire Rob. I hope now, that he will go back to focusing on his family and what he does best, create jobs! As for any other Republicans running in CD-1, I think you should greatly re-think that. Running more right or more left of Suzanne Bonamici will not work in CD-1, no matter how much you hope, wish and pray for it. You are fighting an opponent that cannot be beat. Bonamici proved that last night. A HORRIBLE candidate wiped the floor with the Republican candidate and it was NOT the Republican candidates fault. Numbers people, numbers. Do your research.
So what are we left with? CD-3 is Blumenauer country and will never change. CD-1 is now officially the same. With a candidate as BAD as Suzanne Bonamici, the Democrats still voted for her in droves. CD-1 is a LOST district, let’s just concede that and know that Republicans own CD-2 with Greg Walden and most likely ANY Republican that were to run after he leaves. That means there are two districts that I believe we really have a great chance at winning: CD-4 with a weakened Peter DeFazio and CD-5 with an inept, in-over-his-head, Kurt Schrader.
As Republicans there is hope and there is a chance to have 3 out of 5 Representatives in Congress but it will take a lot of work and great candidates. Sometimes you have to lose the battles to win the war. CD-1 and CD-3 are lost, let’s move on!