Balanced Budget Amendment is Popular; but Supporting ObamaCare Does One No Big Favors
Balanced Budget Amendment: “Do you support or oppose a constitutional amendment requiring the federal government to balance the budget?”
Don’t Know: 18%
Obama Health Care Plan “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a member of Congress who supported the Obama health care reform plan that was just passed by the House of Representatives?”
More likely: 47%
Don’t know: 16%
Less Likey: 38%
Results of our recent statewide survey among Oregon voters reveals widespread support for a Balanced Budget Amendment, but voters are not widely enthused about the new health care reform proposal passed by the House last week.
For example, fully 60% of voters statewide support a “constitutional amendment requiring the federal government to balance the budget,” while just 22% are opposed and 18% have no opinion. This proposal finds only plurality support in Multnomah County, but support exceeds 60% in the rest of the state. A Balanced Budget Amendment finds majority support among men and women of all ages, although men age 18-54 are more pronounced in their sentiment. By party, Republicans and Independents are supporting this proposal by margins of greater than three-to-one, but even among Democrats, there is majority support today.
Incumbent congressional members who supported the Obama health care plan passed last week by the House of Representatives will find this to be a very polarizing and partisan issue. While 47% of Oregonians say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported the Obama health care plan, 38% would be less likely to vote for that candidate and 16% have no opinion. As we have seen nationally, sentiment on this issue has deep partisan roots — among Democrats, fully 70% are more likely and only 17% are less likely to vote for a member of Congress who voted for the Obama health care plan. Among Republicans, however, sentiment is exactly reversed (17% more likely, 70% less likely). For Independents, this issue is more positive than negative, but the percentage of Independents who react positively fails to reach 50% (46% more likely, 30% less likely, 24% don’t know). Regionally, Multnomah County voters are enthused about a member of Congress who supported the Obama health care plan, but voters in the rest of the state have mixed reactions. There is a fairly significant gender gap on this issue as well – men are divided, but women are more likely to support a member of Congress who supported the health care plan, 50% to 35%. By age, seniors are divided on this issue, while a plurality of voters age 55-64 and 18-34 react favorably and the widest margins of support are found among the 45-54 age group. At the same time, the plurality of 35-44 year olds are negative about a member of Congress who supported this plan.