New poll shows statistical tie for Oregon governor’s race

Bud Pierce_thb

Bud Pierce for Governor

Salem, OR – Poll numbers released Wednesday by Clout Research show an extremely tight race between incumbent Governor Kate Brown and her Republican challenger Dr. Bud Pierce.

“These poll numbers are not surprising to me,” said Dr. Pierce. “Since the primary, many polls have indicated a similar trend. This is more evidence that it is already a tight race between myself and the governor.”

The poll shows Pierce is just 1.4% behind Brown, within the survey’s margin of error. The survey found that 43.4% of people would vote for Brown and 42% would vote for Pierce.

Among independent voters, who are key to this election, Pierce leads Brown 41% to 29%.

“I think voters like my message of being open and transparent with them,” said Pierce. “Since the primary election I’ve been out in many Oregon communities spreading the word about what I would do to improve Oregon, if elected Governor. Kate Brown has basically been an invisible candidate, not attending debates or answering tough questions. The governor has only been accessible to insiders and lobbyists. I’ve tried to make myself accessible to the people and the media.”

This poll was conducted July 9-13th by Clout Research and surveyed 701 likely voters by telephone with 551 respondents by landline and 150 by mobile phone. The survey carries a confidence interval of 95% and a margin of error is 3.71%.

Here’s a link to the survey: http://cloutpolitical.com/or-governor-race-in-dead-heat-measure-97-losing-ground/

Media coverage of the new poll

Oregonian: New poll shows Oregon governor race in virtual tie

KOIN/Portland Tribune: Poll: Brown, Pierce in dead heat in governor’s race

KTVZ: New poll: Gov. Brown, challenger Pierce in dead heat

KXL: Brown And Pierce Virtually Tied

KOBI: Oregon Governor race heating up

Bud Pierce, M.D, Ph.D. is a business owner and senior partner of Hematology/Oncology of Salem, one of the last physician owned practices on the West Coast. He announced his candidacy for governor on Sept.10, 2015, on the Republican ticket and won the party’s nomination for Governor in the May primary. You can view his website at: www.BudPierce.com

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Posted by at 05:00 | Posted in 2016 Election, Gov. Kate Brown | 38 Comments |Email This Post Email This Post |Print This Post Print This Post
  • Dick Winningstad

    Could it be time for a change? I hope so.

  • MrBill

    There’s been a long running discussion in GOP circles about how conservative a candidate they should put forward in a blue state like Oregon. Some say having a left leaning candidate is the only way to win statewide office. I think the person’s strength of character is the first thing people look at, not whether they’re liberal or conservative.

    That Bud Pierce is doing this well despite being more conservative seems to support that. But it’s still a long time before votes are cast and anything could happen.

    • Conservatively Speaking

      Amen and omen, GBA, hopefully, it’s still evident, MrBill.

    • Connie Kosuda

      well, surely, if ‘strength of character’ is the draw / trumpster is OUT>
      pedophile rapist is a disqualifier.

      • Granola girl

        Where did you get that from??1!

        • Connie Kosuda

          er, the news . you know. at least 8 separate articles.

          • Si thru CK’s transparency

            Ewe lambskin-uda being correspondent from an Orwellian animal mall forum… bleat, bleat……

      • MrBill

        Unless he’s running against the chief enabler of another pedophile rapist with even stronger ties to Jeffrey Epstien.

        • Connie Kosuda

          amazing you KNEW ALL ALONG ABOUT TRUMP / AMAZING.

          • MrBill

            AND CLINTON TOO!!!

            But seriously, even though I’m no fan of Cheeto Grande, he’s still the better choice.

          • Connie Kosuda

            not even over a steaming pile o dung /

  • Granola girl

    I believe the more he gets out there, as well as advertising will give him better name recognition than Brown. Not to mention most people are looking for change, and she certainly is anything but!

    • Connie Kosuda

      who?

      • Granola girl

        BUD PIERCE

        • Connie Kosuda

          wow / what a dynamic draw . / NOT

          • Granola girl

            I gather you are a Hillary lover? No integrity and should be wearing a striped jumpsuit for perjury amongst other crimes. Anyone that votes for her should really examine their own life, or just stay home and don’t vote.

          • Connie Kosuda

            chill granola / an ice cream topping.

          • Hosen Chi Minth her now

            Stew you a John Reedy vat of konmunist socialist juice, Ms Chicane Guevara to letting out wearing Hanoi Jane combat spews.

  • Connie Kosuda

    very funny / the wenzels at ‘work’ / 9 out of 10 bed bugs agree / NOT

    • Gardenhomeboy

      Your words are unintelligible.

      • Connie Kosuda

        I knew you would understand.

        • Ewe bench pressa’s Benghazi

          Shrew you Ms Commie Kosuda, matron d’ consort of Debbie Wasserman Shills for what lies in HRC’s cabalintettes, ho’ all that should be hanging out and around Mary Surratts yardarm garden.

      • Granola girl

        such intelligence…. NOT

    • Brad Avakian resembles it 2

      Who or Hu licks your yardarm madame? Ole’ bud of babes Roberts and Bonamici, Terry Bean, in fur pants along with Kate Brown and Tina Kotek, per sample

  • DavidAppell

    This post’s headline is incorrect:

    “New poll shows statistical tie for Oregon governor’s race”

    In fact, what poll actually find is “….with Brown holding an insignificant 43.4% to 42.0% over Pierce.”

    https://cloutpolitical.com/or-governor-race-in-dead-heat-measure-97-losing-ground/

    These pollsters do not know statistics, because the data do not show a statistical tie or “dead heat.”

    Around each polling probability number is a Bell Curve, and the press release says each number “…has a margin of error of 3.71%.”

    So there are two overlapping Bell Curves, but their area of overlap is not 100%, as would be the case in a true dead heat or statistical tie.

    It is possible to calculate their overlap via standard statistical functions, but that wasn’t done here.

    In fact, Brown still has a clear lead over Pierce even when you include the statistical uncertainties.

    This polling company came to an incorrect conclusion and wrote an incorrect press release.

    Clout Research appears to be biased.

    • Connie Kosuda

      it’s a group of 4 suits / 3 having the same last name! (wenzel) what clout!

      • Book CK’s Dano’s

        So saith E. Commie-czar Kosuda.

    • Dick Winningstad

      I suspect that given polls are not 100% accurate, being within 1-2% is grounds for calling it a tie.

      • DavidAppell

        You, Dick, also don’t understand statistics.

        Ever studied the subject?

        • Dick Winningstad

          Probably not as much as you have. But I do know in the real world that close figures +/- 1 or 2% means either way. Surveys are not 100% accurate.

          • DavidAppell

            “But I do know in the real world that close figures +/- 1 or 2% means either way.”

            Like I said, you don’t understand statistics.

          • Dick Winningstad

            I do know the real world. Surveys are not 100% accurate. When they are close, then either side could win. Get a grip.

          • MrBill

            Don’t bother arguing on this one. You understand the numbers just fine and Mr. Appell is trying to pick a fight over something you both agree on.

          • Dick Winningstad

            Agreed.

          • DavidAppell

            “Surveys are not 100% accurate.”

            No one is claiming they are. If you’d study statistics, you’d know that.

          • DavidAppell

            “Surveys are not 100% accurate.”

            That is EXACTLY my point.

          • Dick Winningstad

            Then why are you arguing with me?

    • Mary Surratt codifies M Booth

      Twit, yours is snot unless it flavors a nasalry Clinton.

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