By Taxpayers Association of Oregon
Much attention has been paid to a series of recent polls, showing Frontrunner Christine Drazan en route to narrowly-defeating Tina Kotek by vote margins of 1-6%. But another metric in determining a candidates’ chances are odds. Odds are very distinct from polling numbers. They project a candidate’s actual statistical chance of victory – not the projected vote spread. For the first time, on October 14th, a political odds-making website flipped odds in favor of Republican Christine Drazan:
Screenshot from Race to White House, 10/14/2022
Republican Christine Drazan’s 51.20-48.00% “lead” over Democrat Tina Kotek represents coin-flip odds, with a minor Drazan advantage.
www.racetothewh.com is a national poll aggregating and prediction site, which boasts an almost 94% accuracy rating in predictions from the 2020 election cycle.