4 election warning signs for November

By Taxpayers Association of Oregon


As there is cause of celebration with many liberal defeats at the 2024 May Primary … there are ominous warning signs.

Voter turn-out was slow and low.   If fiscal conservatives do not fix late-voting and low-voting by the November election, they will lose.   Candidates cannot afford to waste money and volunteer time telling their core supporters to vote 30xs (through phone calls, emails, postcards, door knocks) during the month of October before their core supporters  actually do vote at the last possible moment on election night at 6pm.

Key candidates under-performed.  Many rising star candidates (for which we will leave unnamed) had great fundraising and nominal opposition, yet their results on election night were grossly disproportionate to their effort.   If the rising star candidates can’t motivate voters away from lackluster candidates who are not even campaigning, then how well will they do against a full-blown challenger this November?

• Undecided votes.  Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump had around 10% write-in votes.   Those 10% need attention.

A scarcity of new ideas.  A review of nearly a hundred campaign ads/mailers/videos, reveals that we witnessed very few candidates offering anything new, or inventive, or fresh, or something to separate themselves from the competition.    This is a good time to remind everyone about the 2022 “epic upset” for fiscal conservative candidates.  That year, candidates ran on “Economy-is-bad” and “Inflation-is-bad” and “crime-is-bad” and voters still rejected them.  It turns out that voters are tired of candidates screaming, blaming and complaining about problems and that they are hungry for candidates with bold answers, something new, or a demonstration that the candidate can actually get things done for the things that they promise.   If candidates do not distinguish themselves, then voters will naturally, out of frustration, pick the incumbent or the candidate they see the most (because they have more money) which leans towards the liberal majority because they make up more incumbents and have the more funds.

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