Poll Shock: Congress #6 upset, Salinas falling

By Oregon Campaign Watch,

Highlights from Cygnal Press Release over challenger Mike Erickson (R) within winning margin over incumbent Congresswoman District #6 Andrea Salinas:

• Erickson outperforms the D+4 generic ballot (Democrat 47 – Republican 43) – and even further ahead of President Trump.
• After messaging, Erickson erases the statistical tie and pulls into a 3-point lead.
• Erickson already holds lead with non-affiliated voters on both initial and informed ballots, critical to victory in November. Salinas is in a bad spot for an incumbent driven by her freshmen status and far-left positions that are outside the mainstream of the district.

• Only 32% of likely voters in OR-6 have a favorable opinion of their incumbent Democratic congresswoman, Andrea Salinas – barely more than view her unfavorably. Nearly 4 in 10 have never heard of her or have no opinion.
• Salinas’s image is underwater with non-affiliated voters (24% favorable, 36% unfavorable: -12% net unfavorable), and voters without a college education, who make up a majority of the district. Erickson draws even and is viewed much more favorably by non-affiliated voters.

Methodology: This probabilistic survey was conducted August 7 – 9, 2024, with 516 likely general election voters. It has a margin of error of ±4.29%. Known registered voters were interviewed via live phones and text-to-web. This survey was weighted to a likely general election voter universe