Regime Change in Iran

On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal published an editorial in which they opined that time for talking with Iran has passed and that it is time for action. And that action is regime change. During the weekend preceding the Journal’s editorial, the talking heads of the legacy media the legacy speculated mindlessly about what should be done with Iran in the aftermath of the murders of tens of thousands of Iranian citizens by the regime which has strangled Iran since 1979.

Some, I’ll call them the Obama/Biden wing of the Democrat Party, suggested that we load up a couple of bales of cash ($100 bills only) into a couple of C-130 airplanes, fly to Tehran and see if Iran will agree to a new nuclear deal that they would have no intention of honoring. The lunatic fringe of the Democrat Party, I’ll call them the Progressives, fear any armed conflict and therefore suggested that we send stern letters of denunciation and ask them to empty their prisons into America’s major cities where they will be lavishly entertained with fee everything.  And the hawkish wing of the Democrat Party, I’ll call them the Hillary loons, have urged that we storm the beaches of Iran and engage in an extended ground war with no idea of how to withdraw from it, nor any intention of fighting to win. And to put a point on just how worthless their advice is, not a single one of them will bear any responsibility for the inevitable outcome of their stupidity. Talk is not just cheap, it is worthless.

In contrast then, the Journal’s editorial is a beacon of common sense. Something that our foreign policy has lacked for decades but now under President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff seems to be in abundance. The Trump administration has generally ignored the intelligencia of Yale alumni that have populated the State Department and proved worthless over time and opted instead for the type of give and take that is at the heart of complex business negotiations.

That being said, Mr. Trump and his advisors must still chose from a limited menu of a) kinetic action, such as bombing Iran nuclear facilities, b) targeted elimination of pivotal leaders, such as the former commander of the Qud Forces Qesam Soleimani, or c) the mounting economic pressure on oil sales and financial transactions designed to cause the collapse of the Iranian government. What it does not include is the beautifully planned and executed removal of a key leader of the country such as we did with Venezuelan dictator Nicholas Maduro. The reason behind that is that there are 29,999 blood thirsty Shia clerics in a line behind Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Each is more than ready to send the young men and women, including civilians, of Iran to their deaths as martyrs* for Allah. Removing one of these zealots simply makes room for the next zealot accompanied by a bloody purge of all of the other zealots whom he** distrusts.

So, the Journal is right. The only solution is regime change otherwise we are simply kicking the can down the alley. The effect of regime change is not to replace one religious zealot with another but rather to rid Iran of the power of the religious zealots and allow the masses to seize control of the government. This isn’t rocket science despite what CNN, MSNBC or the low IQ panelist of the The View might think. It is simply a matter of energizing the people of Iran to take back their country while crippling the internal Qud Forces of Iran to minimize bloodshed. A revolution in Iran is already underway. Because we were busy with Venezuela and Mr. Maduro we missed a chance two weeks ago, but revolutions are organic and reaching their peak is not entirely predictable. However, it is not difficult to re-energize the masses such as they were two weeks ago. And between our intelligence and that of the Israelis it is possible to cripple the Qud Forces through a combination of aerial attacks and localized sabotage – nobody is better at that than the Mossad. (It should be noted that Mr. Khamenei has already signaled that in the event of an uprising he will depart immediately – with lost of cash – for accommodations already in place in Moscow.  Apparently that substitutes for martyrdom for the ayatollahs.

The follow on to the uprising will be even more difficult.  But if Mr. Trump and his allies follow the path that they have taken in Venezuela and focus more on how to incentivize who ever leads the interim government rather than trying to force a particular choice for an interim leader things are likely to turn out alright.  The goal ultimately is necessarily to install a Western style democratic government but rather simply a representative style of elected government through free and fair elections. Economic incentives must be presented (much like in Venezuela) to reopen Iran’s economy and provide a view of better things to come for the general population. And the people of Iran will likely handle the problem of the Shia clerics with swift justice.

This is more complex than Venezuela but just as important. So long as Messrs. Trump, Rubio and Witkoff continue to apply common sense and ignore the advice of the Eli’s of the State Department everything will be just fine. Well, just fine until those inflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome (DTS) take back the presidency and reverse everything simply because Trump did it.

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* Please take not that we are not likely to see Mr. Khamenei offer himself as a martyr. Apparently that privilege is reserved for the young and powerless.

** I use the term he advisedly because under the current Shia rule no women, gays, lesbians, transexuals or Christians need apply.