Josh Lehner’s Farewell

The acting Oregon State Economist, Josh Lehner, is leaving the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. This follows the exit of the man appointed to that job, Mark McMullen, early this year. At that time, I wrote a hopeful note that Lehner would permanently succeed McMullen. But alas, the private sector made more sense for him and his family. Lehner is headed to the consulting firm SGH Macro Advisors.

This is an extremely important job for two reasons. First, OEA produces some very helpful economic research. Lehner wrote for their blog, sharing a lot of useful knowledge in a lucid prose style. Second, it produces the revenue forecast for the Oregon legislature. Given the opposition to Oregon’s kicker law within the progressive elements of the party that rules this state, the inability to repeal the law could be worked around through administrative action by pressuring the Office of Economic Analysis to overestimate revenue intentionally. That would result in permanent shortfalls and a de facto elimination of the kicker.

That hasn’t happened in recent memory, because OEA has been filled with integrity a carefully built culture by former State Economist Tom Potiowsky. Lehner has very much been a Potiowsky protege, preserving that ethos. Now the agency is facing 100% turnover among economists. Hopefully, honest analysis can survive.

Lehner wrote a farewell message on his official blog, where he left some parting analytical wisdom:

For my fellow analysts, economists and researchers, be curious. Good data analysis leads to answers but also to more questions and ideas. Research is like peeling an onion where layer after layer you learn more and can always keep going.

It’s that mindset where you get the best results. It’s figuring out what underlying components are driving the topline results. It’s framing this new piece of information in the context of past data or in comparison to other industries or regions or the like. It’s fact-checking other people’s findings when the results don’t seem quite right. It’s also things like diving deep into the history of the wood products industry in Oregon, or compiling lots of different datapoints to create the housing trilemma and so on that produce the best, and longest-lasting work that folks come back to time and again to learn and reference.

Best of luck, you will be missed.

Eric Shierman lives in Salem and is the author of We were winning when I was there.