Presidential polling on Trump VS Hillary: Yikes!

2016 Trump V Clinton

by NW Spotlight

Donald Trump is not doing well in polling against Hillary Clinton.

On Thursday former George W. Bush White House press secretary and Fox News political commentator Dana Perino wrote “about the state of the GOP Presidential race: it is not good.”

She wrote about being burned by not believing the polling in the 2012 presidential election showing an Obama victory over Romney. She notes “polling involved specifically in presidential elections has been accurate since 1952.”

Perino goes on to write “No candidate has been this behind in August and gone on to win. But I recognize that Trump is unlike any candidate America has ever seen. Yet if the size of one’s rallies translated into votes, Bernie Sanders would be the Democratic nominee right now.

There is, of course, a first time for everything, and I am not saying this election is over. I believe the polls will tighten after Labor Day. How this contest is waged and how both candidates perform in the upcoming debates in the next eleven weeks will determine that.”

Current presidential race polling

This is a different state of affairs for Trump than during the GOP presidential primaries – where Trump usually led in the polls.

The current Real Clear Politics presidential polling averages show Hillary with a +5.3 advantage over Trump in polling between August 1st and August 20th. A Real Clear Politics snapshot of the 2016 presidential election has Hillary with a +18.0 favorability rating, Hillary leading in betting odds 79.0 to Trump’s 21.0, and Hillary leading in the battleground states.

RealClearPolitics snapshot 8-21-2016

RealClearPolitics snapshot 8-21-2016

Most troubling is that Real Clear Politics presidential poll averages show Hillary with 272 electoral votes and Trump with 154 – with 112 toss up electoral votes. 270 electoral votes are needed to win.

CNN is even talking about the possibility of a Clinton landslide “if Trump can’t win all of the reliably Republican states in the South and West.” CNN quotes a political science professor from Ohio “At this point, a landslide is a real possibility. The fact that reliably red states like Georgia, Arizona, and Utah are in play point toward a huge potential triumph for Hillary Clinton.”

“It ain’t over till it’s over”

Regardless, for Trump supporters and for those who do not want to see a Hillary Clinton victory in November, here’s a cautionary note on polling.

Investigative journalist Sharyl Attkisson recently tweeted this blast from the past: a February 2004 Gallup poll with this Gallup headline “Kerry, Edwards Lead Bush by Double Digits Among Likely Voters.”

  • Ack says Bloom County Brethead

    Make no mistake, A vote for Hillary indicates how much dour electorate can be Dem’d down.“`OK, so you can’t stand for either HRC or DRT?

    Then vote for a third personality and hope an electoral stand off arises to the occasion and the POTUS selection goes to the US Congress where Paul Ryan makes for an affirm-able compromise entity.

    Ways and means while, imagine the nasalry Mrs. Clinton answering the 0300 telephone after all the china she has restored to the White House cabal-net – and saying y’all gotta love me, for kissing off Harriett Tubman replacing herself on a $20 bill and spending her shill onto a SCOTUS position.

    • It’s a Mad Mad Mad More auld

      Even a bitter instill or insult: BHO?

    • MrBill

      In Oregon, it doesn’t much matter. HRC will win here.

      If, by some miracle, it ends up being close, DRT will get my vote. Otherwise, it’ll be Gary Johnson.

  • jackie

    I am not putting much stock in what Dana Perino has to say. She has not been involved with polls or past elections for long enough to really have an in depth knowledge on the subject. There are other people with more knowledge then she on this subject.

  • She’s just been ghastly

    Yugo-slavia, HRC, and remain there, permanently, on a purloined Obama vacation.

  • Bob Clark

    Mr. T needs a killer first debate; or the machine rightfully wins. Problem for the GOP from day one was Bush 3 just wasn’t going to fly in the general election. Kaisch indeed might be able to run against the machine, but his mushiness didn’t play well at all in the primary.

    So, I am afraid the Supreme Court is gone; and with it the quaint concept of god given rights (limits on government, i.e); giving way to government given rights. A good therapy read for us losers is I might suggest, “American Character,” Colin Woodard. It’s sort of a bridge to understanding our plight (although I think the read has its shortcomings, for sure). Here’s the line from this read that most struck me: “Human nature is not fundamentally individualistic or fundamentally collectivist. It’s both.”

    Well, actually it isn’t over til its over, as the great Yogi Berra pined. There’s also the chance the two sided coin of Hillary versus Mr. T comes up edges!

  • Jess Sayin’

    Denote the visage of HRC presented, a wannabe resemblance to an archaic coin, this day wanton to replace Harriett Tubman on a $20 bill and her swill Putin on SCOTUS chillin’ out bawdy bagged Scalia.