Poll shows Pierce leading possible Senate District 10 field

By Reagan Knopp —

A poll conducted by The Hoffman Research Group — provided by sources close to Selma Pierce — shows her leading a field of five Republicans in a hypothetical special election for Senate District 10. She has an edge amongst Republican voters of 32 points with the next closest candidate.

In an early head to head, the poll shows Pierce leading likely the Democratic candidate, State Representative Paul Evans by a margin of 49% – 40%. No other candidates were tested.

The poll was conducted June 4-5 among 375 likely voters. The margin of error for most of the poll is ±5%. One questions was limited to the 161 Republican respondents, and has a margin of error ±7.7%.

The poll also gives us a window into a field that is still taking shape. The poll includes one name not previously known to be interested in the Senate seat: Ken Outfleet. Outfleet hasn’t publicly announced his candidacy, but is a veteran in Salem that is being courted by unnamed Senate Republicans.

Republicans precinct committee persons for SD 10 meet on Friday to narrow the field to a list of 3-5 candidates. The Marion and Polk County commissioners will appoint a replacement from the list. The appointed candidate or any other challengers could seek the seat in a special election to be held in 2020/

Amongst Republican voters, the poll has the candidates break down as follows:

  • 44% — Selma Pierce
  • 30% — Undecided
  • 12% — Denyc Boles
  • 5% — TJ Sullivan
  • 2% — Ken Outfleet

Senate District 10 became vacant after Senator Jackie Winters passed away last month.