By Taxpayer Association of Oregon
Oregon 2020 could be conservative breakthrough year
Here are five signs that 2020 may be a big year for Oregon conservative and liberty minded Oregonians.
1. Governor Brown sinking. In 2018 Governor Brown ranked among the more popular governor’s among the 50 states. This year she ranked among the 10 least popular state governors. It is likely that Governor Brown still has a few more scandals to reveal before her term expires. Her unpopularity will effect voting across the state.
2. Citizen unrest & engagement. The Senate GOP walkout and TimberUnity protests both gained national televised attention and some of the biggest Capitol street protests in recent Oregon history. The website, Oregon Catalyst, saw explosive growth in 2019 unlike anything they had seen in their 15 years of operation. Articles were getting 10,000 to 25,000 Facebook likes (as much as 70,000 views) without a single penny of article promotion.
3. Increased Voter turn-out: The last time Trump was on the ballot it increased conservative and moderate turn-out which helped give a strong defeat to the Measure 97 business sales tax and helped elect Dennis Richardson as Secretary of State — snapping a decades long monopoly on statewide partisan offices. Trump will likely repeat the increased turnout heading into 2020. Also, in 2020, Greg Walden is stepping down which turns this normally sleepy congressional district into a competitive fight in the general election. If international hero, Alex Skarlatos, wins the Primary in Congressional District #2, then we will likely see increased energy, activism and turn-out in that congressional district. Having both districts#2 and #5 be elevated in activity means increased turnout for down ballot races like State Senate and House seats.
4. Homeless explosion. Oregon ranks as the fourth biggest homeless state in the nation per-capita. Sprawling homeless camps are visual reminders that things are not working and that is bad news for the party in power in Salem. Oregonians fear for their safety at night in places where it was never a problem. This homeless explosion will undoubtedly create a sense of change among angry voters heading into the 2020 November election.
5. Tax surprise: In 2019, lawmakers passed the largest tax in Oregon history with a $1.3 billion sales tax. A huge portion of businesses affected do not know that this tax exists. Many are now finding out for the first time with the recent state notices sent directly to business owners. Oregon’s high revenue-low profit businesses (restaurants, agriculture, etc.) are feeling a sense of unrest, fear and panic. Witnesses who attended public Town hall hearings designed to explain the tax said the meetings were chaotic and confusing as if the state has no idea how to properly implement the tax. Small businesses that don’t have to pay the tax are still sucked into its reporting requirements because they are within the 25% range of the million-dollar revenue mark. Small businesses that work together under a unified structure may find themselves qualifying for the tax that they did not expect. The high tax bite, widespread tax confusion and tax surprise may make this tax one of the most unpopular laws in recent Oregon history.
There are more taxes to come! Lawmakers are eyeing a $700 million Carbon Tax this February and Metro regional government is planning a billion-dollar transportation tax. 2020 may reach a taxing boiling point.
These signs all point to a 2020 election year that will be very unpredictable, volatile and open to change.
— Please support our 20-year effort to lower your taxes:
– Use your 2019 Tax Credit before it expires
— You can make a regular donation to support our efforts at fighting tax increases at the ballot box, in the courtroom, in the State Capitol and in the media.
Taxpayer Association of Oregon
PO Box 23573
Tigard, OR, 97281