by Bob Clark
(8:00 am May 18, 2011) At this moment, Portland Public Schools Construction Bond and Tax (26-121) is failing by about 1,500 votes. In Multnomah County, the No side leads 50.7% to 49.3%. There are still maybe 17,000 or more ballots to be counted. The trend over the last two counts is very much in favor of the Yes side winning.
Late yesterday, the split had been 52.5% No and 47.5% Yes. But the last count at 3:09 AM this morning brought us to the current tally. The next count release by Multnomah County Elections isn’t until 4 PM, today. All is not lost for the No side. I think the trend in favor of the Yes side will fade in the next count because the trend in the companion school property tax measure (26-122) seems to have flattened out in the last count from the previous count. This companion measure is passing 57.6% to 42.4%.
I believe the remaining ballots might trend below 53% in favor of 26-121, given the companion measure numbers. If so, the Portland Public Schools Construction Bond and Tax will still fail, but only by a few hundred votes or less.
I suspect what has closed the gap is the paid canvassers sent out this past weekend by the Yes side. These canvassers go after a targeted voter segment, rustling their vote and even going so far as to take delivery of their ballot. This should be another lesson to Oregon conservatives and Republicans. The Democrat party utilizes canvassers much more potently than conservatives and Republicans. Concentrating on voter fraud is good, but the Democrat Party really doesn’t need voter fraud (at least not yet) when they command this potent canvasser advantage.
Well, on the good news front, we conservatives definitely are alive in Clackamas County and maybe we’ve a heartbeat in Multnomah County.