Poll puts Drazan and Diehl within 3%

By Oregon Campaign Watch,

Predict Oregon just released a poll showing a close race for Governor, with Drazan at 40.5%, Dielh at 37.5% and Dudley at 17%.

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Drazan-Diehl Race a Statistical Dead Heat with Five Days to Primary
By Predict Oregon.com

New independent statewide poll finds a much closer race than April surveys suggested; already-cast ballots show race effectively tied

Monmouth, Ore. — An independent statewide poll released today by Predict Oregon shows the Republican gubernatorial primary in a statistical dead heat between Christine Drazan and Ed Diehl, with only five days remaining until the May 19 primary election. The poll of 656 likely–highly likely Republican primary voters, conducted May 7–13, found Drazan leading Diehl 40.5 percent to 37.5 percent — a 3-point margin that falls inside the poll’s ±3.83 percent margin of error.

The findings represent a shift from Oregon polling released in April. Surveys prior to the primary placed Drazan well outside the margin of error giving the impression the contest was effectively decided.

Key Findings

• Drazan 40.5%, Diehl 37.5%, Dudley 17.3%. Combined preference among decided voters and leaners (n=538). Drazan’s 3-point lead is inside the ±3.83% margin of error.

• Already-cast ballots show the race effectively tied. Among the 295 respondents who have already returned their ballots, Drazan and Diehl are at 39.7% and 39.0%.

• Dudley holds a stable floor. Chris Dudley sits at 17.3% across every way the data was measured. With Drazan leading Diehl by 3 points and Dudley’s bloc holding firm, the trajectory of the final five days could depend substantially on what late-deciding and Dudley-aligned voters do.

• Geographic coverage was statewide. Respondents were reached in 33 of Oregon’s 36 counties. Only three of the state’s smallest counties — Sherman, Gilliam, and Wheeler — are not represented in the sample.

About the Poll

The poll surveyed 656 likely Republican primary voters statewide from May 7 through May 14, 2026. Margin of error is ±3.83 percent at 95 percent confidence. Respondents were drawn from the Oregon Secretary of State statewide voter list as of May 1, 2026. The poll was conducted primarily through live telephone interviews; a small portion (<20) of respondents who were unable to complete a live interview were offered a secure one-time access link to complete the survey online. The poll was not commissioned, sponsored, or funded by any candidate, campaign, or political committee.

Full topline report, crosstabs, and methodology disclosure will be published at PredictOregon.com on Friday, May 15, 2026.

About Predict Oregon

Predict Oregon is an independent public opinion polling operation focused on Oregon politics. Predict Oregon is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or funded by any candidate, campaign, or political committee. Mark Anderson, founder, holds an MBA and has analyzed Oregon politics since 2008.

Contact: Mark Anderson · Predict Oregon · [email protected] · predictoregon.com

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