Oregon Revenue Forecast: revenue picture is flat, uncertainty remains

Oregonians for Food and Shelter

This week the state economist delivered the June Revenue Forecast. Although a variety of indicators suggest economic conditions are improving, those improvements remain slower than what we have experienced in past economic recoveries. Oregon’s current revenue picture is flat and a considerable amount of uncertainty remains before we reach the end of the biennium.

Here are the highlights:

  • Oregon personal income was up $0.3 billion (0.1 percent) from the March 2012 forecast.
  • Oregon employment was up 3,676 jobs (0.2 percent) from the March 2012 forecast.
  • Combined, General Fund and Lottery Fund resources are down $225.4 million from the 2011 close of session estimate. There is a projected $95.1 million ending balance for the remainder of the biennium.
  • There is no personal or corporate kicker projected for 2011 or 2013 and economists project a 13.3 percent increase in revenue growth between the 2011-13 and 2013-15 biennia.

For more information, the Revenue Forecast, Executive Summary, can be viewed online. A copy of the full report can be found here.

Oregonians for Food and Shelter (OFS) is a grass roots coalition which works to protect the rights of natural resource based businesses in Oregon.

  • JoelinPDX

    You can’t expect Oregon’s economy to be booming. We’ve had a dDemoclown for a governor for 28 years and we have a predominantly Democlown legislature. Oregon elects Democlowns and so long as it does our economy will be in the toilet.

    • Ardbeg

      Joelina-So by your 2nd grade logic (you have been demoted
      a grade) States that are doing worse economically than Oregon like: Idaho,
      Indiana, Ohio, Montana, Ok, Georgia, Tenn, Texas, W.V, Alabama, Ark, Nevada,
      Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Florida, S. Carolina, Louisiana, Arizona and
      Kentucky are all under Democratic control, right? 
      Back to the play pen my repressed (closeted) comrade until you have something intelligent to say.

  • GreenWeenie

    Oregon will remain strong and secure as one of the nation’s leading environmental states. From the bottle bill to our bike lanes and light rail, we are leading the way for the rest of the world. We are the model of how to live in comfort yet happiness with our mother, the earth.
    So we may have a few people out of work. What is more important, I ask you??

  • David Appell

    Given that Oregon’s population has grown faster than the US’s for the last few decades, it is clearly a popular place to live, so it must be doing something right. 

    And that constant influx probably explains part of the reason why Oregon’s unemployment tends to be higher than the US average.

    • GreenWeenie

      Exactly. Other states where many people move like Nebraska and Texas also have horrible unemployment rates just like Oregon.
      Solid, right on point.

      • David Appell

        In the case of Texas it’s probably more that they have no personal or corporate income tax. (And they have the social and environmental problems to prove it.)

        • Guest

           Yes, those problems are so great, people are flocking there in protest.

          • David Appell

            Are people flocking to Texas?

            Meanwhile:* Texas has the fourth-highest poverty rate of any state. * It tied with Mississippi last year for the highest percentage of workers in minimum-wage jobs. * It ranks first in adults without high school diplomas. * 26% of Texans have no health insurance — the highest percentage of medically uninsured residents of any state. * It leads the nation in the percentage of children who lack medical insurance. * a huge budget deficit–2012 projected budget shortfall of $13.4B (31.5% of 2011 spending)* the worst pollution of any state

          • 4real

            Wow – I sure am happier unemployed in Oregon than I ever would be in such a horrible place as Texas.

          • David Appell

            Then why don’t you get off your ass and go find a job there? Or stay here and create your own?

      • valley person

         People are moving to Nebraska? In 1980 their population was 1.5 million. Now they have 1.8 million. Oregon has gone from 2.6 to 3.8 million over the same period. A population growth mecca Nebraska ain’t.

        Anyone who has had the misfortune of traveling through the God-forsaken wasteland that is Nebraska will have noted the vacant storefronts and half abandoned towns that litter the windswept plains.

        Texas has the highest proportion of people working for the minimum wage, and those without health insurance in the nation. they have managed to create a whole lot of dead end jobs that can’t support anyone.

        You got any better models for us Ms Weenie?