Oregon the key swing state in the presidential election?

by NW Spotlight

Oregon’s own Derrick Kitts, a Republican former state representative from Hillsboro, has an analysis in the Huffington Post that predicts that Oregon will be the key swing state in this November’s presidential election. Kitts writes “‘Oregon, Oregon, Oregon.’ Yes, you read that right… Oregon. Tim Russert famously boiled the 2000 presidential contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore to “Florida, Florida, Florida” but believe it or not, 2012 is shaping up to be all about the Beaver State.”

Kitts goes on to say that the matchup between Knute Buehler and Kate Brown for Secretary of State is the one to watch, noting that “Brown has had her share of political controversies, painting her as a partisan warrior in an increasingly independent-minded state.”

Kitts also talks about the race for State Labor Commissioner, noting that Republican Bruce Starr is leading Democrat Brad Avakian in two current polls.

Kitts closes out his analysis “With such innocuous races for the Oregon legislature and an under the radar non-partisan race for statewide office, Oregon is the sleeper state up for grabs in 2012. The president’s numbers are below 50% in a state he won by 17% in 2008. For these reasons, Oregon will prove to be the decider of the 2012 presidential election.”

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Posted by at 05:00 | Posted in 2012 Presidential Election | 44 Comments |Email This Post Email This Post |Print This Post Print This Post
  • valley person

    And here I though pot had not been legalized yet.

    For Oregon to be a key state in 2012, that would have to mean Obama is losing so badly elsewhere that he has no hope. Full stop.

  • Bob Clark

    It is somewhat encouraging Obama has been banging Romney with negative ads in Ohio and other “swing” states; and yet, it looks like Obama and Romney continue being close in polls of registered voters. Romney and the new energized conservative PACs haven’t really even started attacking Obama yet. Last Friday’s job report was a bit negative for Obama, too.
    Bruce Starr’s run at labor commission is actually very important to rebooting government. Bruce Starr as Labor Commissioner would help pull back on excessive prevailing wage standards. This would actually allow local governments to actually build more facility for the government buck. Right now, prevailing wages I suspect reduce the amount of rebuilding of like public schools, because construction labor rates are significantly higher than they should be; reducing how far a construction bond/tax dollar goes. I don’t recall from my studies of the “Great Depression” wages for public work projects being overgenerous. Government could actually build quite a bit of infrastructure back in the 30s relative to what is now possible. (All the environmental regs don’t help either.) Our public sector has gotten too fat, folks. We should want more bang for the public buck, than “slush-fund-and-EPA-Heavy” Obama is delivering.

  • 0ld_Fart

    This may be one of those cases where the truth is stranger than fiction. A month ago, Allen Alley told us that Obama was ahead by only 4% here and that there are 100,000 fewer Democrats in Oregon than there were in the 2008 race. So, perhaps there is truth in this claim as well. Where did those multitudes go?

    Let us continue to remind the voters of Obama’s abysmal record and his many offenses, as well as Kate Brown’s shenanigans with her ordering the non-destruction of unused ballots (contrary to Oregon law) and her moving the BOLI election to November.

  • Rupert in Springfield

    Of please, be serious. Can we recall a little history?

    In 2010, Oregon was virtually the only state with notable election success for Democrats with the election of Kitzhaber.

    In 2008 Oregon went not only for Obama, but for Kate Brown. The latter is understandable, but after the abuses of a highly partisan Secretary of State, Oregon chose to elect Kate Brown who pretty much pledged to run the office in a more partisan fashion to whatever extent possible.

    Let’s add to that the fact that I sure don’t see a lot of money being spent by either candidate in this state. Why? Obama thinks he has Oregon in the bag and he is probably right. Romney probably thinks the same thing and isn’t interested in wasting money here.

    There is nothing in recent history nor the candidates spending to indicate what is asserted in the article, that Oregon is becoming an increasingly independent state.

    I used to rate the presidential race as a shoe in for Obama. A few months ago I changed that to 50/50. That change was caused by two things, one the continuing economic disaster, the other the fact that Romney seems to be willing to criticize Obama, unlike the hands off rules of the McCain campaign. I still think the race is 50/50 but in Oregon its BO all the way to the grave.

  • guest

    Recounting blue WA’s King Country proclivities like past gubernatorial dembacles, the dead and others can arise to an occasion and be counted over and over again until the vaunted result acquired. Should the need arise, little doubt OR’s blue counties will have Kate Brown’s blessing along with a Bill Bradbury seal of approval for same.

  • Shane Young

    Reagan was the last GOP nominee for president that got Oregon’s vote. If it swung to Romney this election that would definitely be some news.

  • ross

    Oregon would go republican if the GOP was smart enough (or forced) to nominate Ron Paul! Obama/Romney are pretty much the same candidate.

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