By NW Spotlight,
The Republican party is expected to suffer big losses tonight, but there are reasons to hope and reasons to still vote. Here are four statistical indicator theories that favor Republicans.
#1. The final November ABC/Washington Post Poll shows Democrat lead cut nearly in half over two months:
“Democratic House candidates lead Republicans by 52-44 percent among likely voters in this final ABC News/Washington Post pre-election poll, the Democrats’ lead closing from 14 percentage points in August and 13 points in October to 8 points now.”
#2. The final November NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll (Nov 1-3) shows Democrat edge dropping from 9% to 7%:
“Voters in both parties are now showing equally high interest, erasing a Democratic advantage seen in prior surveys this year.The Democratic Party held a 50%-to-43% advantage among likely voters on which party they preferred to lead Congress, slightly narrower than the 9-point edge the party held in mid-October.”
#3. Karl Rove explains some of the missing math to the predictions.
In 9 of 10 midterm elections since 1974, 90% of incumbents are re-elected. In 2016 it was 97%. For the Democratic sweep to occur as the Cook Report is predicting, 8%-13% of existing 197 incumbent Republicans in Congress must be defeated. Defeating more than 10% of incumbents would be out of historical norms. See video here.
#4. A former Vegas oddsmaker who accurately predicted a 2016 Trump win wrote this about 2018 on Town Hall;
“Back in 2016 I predicted a Trump victory when no one else did. Every poll showed Trump would lose by a wide margin. Nate Silver of the NY Times predicted Hillary’s chances of winning at 92%. These pollsters make their living by polling actual human beings. I don’t. So how did I know? Simple. First, size matters. You could see it in the rallies. Trump would attract eight hour lines and 10,000 or more attendees at wild, intense rallies all over America. I should know. I was opening speaker for six Trump campaign events here in Las Vegas. Meanwhile Hillary was attracting 100 to 200 attendees at a rally here in Vegas. I could fit Hillary’s rallies in my living room. The same story held true across America. That was my first reason for realizing Trump was going to pull a huge upset that few saw coming…”
“…I see Florida Democrat Governor candidate Andrew Gillum holding a rally with Bernie Sanders and the whole place is empty. Barack Obama could not fill a high school gym in Milwaukee. I witnessed firsthand Joe Biden and Obama at separate events here in Las Vegas playing to small crowds. Meanwhile I was opening speaker for President Trump’s event in Las Vegas last month- with 10,000 waiting in line for hours in a place where no one cares much about politics. This is a phenomenon. “