Last week we received our 4th quarter revenue forecast. You may click here for the complete forecast report. Here are a few highlights:
- A recession as the most likely/baseline scenario for the forecast. With a mild recession starting in q3 of 2023. With a projected 1.2% decline in jobs where Oregon would lose 24,000 jobs.
- We are likely to see more job losses in industries such as construction, finance, manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing. These are the industries that face more impacts from interest rates. There are projected to be less loses in health care, leisure and hospitality.
- Oregon is looking at about a $3 billion decrease in revenue from the prior biennium.
- Unprecedented revenue growth in Oregon personal income tax liability last year.
- Lottery, CAT, and Marijuana taxes are projected to be slightly lowered due to the recession.
- Combined resources from the current and next biennium are down $13 million from the last forecast. With the 21-23 biennium up $416 million and the 23-25 biennium is down $429 million.
- There is now a projected $3.6 billion Personal Kicker.
In early December we will be engaged with Legislative Days. I anticipate that we will have several reports pertaining to previous legislation including our state’s performance in their response to the COVID19 pandemic. Additionally, we will have an early look at proposed legislation for the upcoming 2023 legislative session. You can find committee schedules here.
The completion of our election cycles this fall brought forth full circle the results of the Redistricting that took place in September of 2021. To find out who will serve you beginning in January 2023 please click here.