Poll: Driver card measure 88 landslide

WatchdogTaxpayer Association Oregon & TAO-PAC

The Taxpayer Association  & TAO-PAC are bringing you ANOTHER exclusive poll.

Our first poll helped show the early results of the nationally watched GOP Senate Primary. Our next poll showed Gov. Kitzhaber close to losing his race for Governor.

In this poll, we targeted the most talked about race on the ballot — the driver card Measure 88. In our postscript, we show how many other states are wrestling with this issue and why this issue deserves a deeper look regardless of whether it passes or not.

A professional and scientific poll of 400+ Oregon voters was conducted by local polling firm NW Market Research in August 2014.

A full 67% reject Measure 88.

Based on reading the ballot title, A full 67% of Oregon voters reject the driver card measure based off the ballot title of the measure that will appear on voters’ ballots this November.  Only  27 %  support it.  Full details here.

Immigration is one of America’s most complex issues and so is this measure. Therefore we divided the measure into distinct parts to see Oregon voters opinions on each aspect of the measure.

– I.D. Requirements Idea: The idea that the Measure allows some level of identification (proof of ID, residence, proof of birth) but not citizenship failed to sway voters. Only 35% considered this favorable.

– Improve Road Safety claim: The idea that the measure would improve road safety by allowing more people to take a driver’s test & have insurance was a stronger facet of the Measure as 44% agreed with the statement.

– Helps people follow law: The concept that the Measure helps people follow the law was supported by 43% of Oregonians — but still not a majority.

– Federal law factor: Another concept is that Oregon is a victim to the failure of Federal laws to deal with immigration. This idea was received by only 37% of Oregonians.

– Total support of positive claims: Combing all of the four positive concepts of the measure leaves voters only supporting the measure by 41%. Roughly 50% would oppose.

The Measure was brought to voters in the form of a referendum. These opponents of driver cards have a list of problems they see will occurring in Oregon if the Measure passes. We tested their negative concepts.

A full 67% of Oregon voters reject the driver card measure, yet that was before they were introduced to negative impacts of the measure. The opposition statements help fuel negatives on the measure which means many undecideds and supporters of the measure are likely changing their opinions on Measure 88 and driving opposition even higher.

– Fraudulent paperwork claim: The concept that if Measure 88 were passed it would increase fraudulent paperwork as experienced in other states had a measure of support with 39% increasing their opposition to the measure based on this claim.

– Increased illegal activity: The concept that driver cards becomes a catalyst for increased illegal activity surrounding immigration was tested and found that a stronger 52% felt more opposition to the measure based on this idea.

–  Sheriffs oppose driver cards: When Oregonians learn that the vast majority of Oregon Sheriffs oppose driver cards, 40% say they are even more less likely to support the measure.

– Illegal is illegal:
  The common phrase that “illegal-is-illegal” and that the state should not be complicit,  36% of the respondents say they are even more less likely to support the measure.

– Total of negative claims: After sharing all of the negative claims made on Measure 88 the total impact amounted to 58% of voters opposing the measure.

POSTSCRIPT: Oregon’s not alone — states across nation struggle with this issue.

Whether Measure 88 passes or fails, it will be a long & reoccurring issue for lawmakers to handle. This is why every lawmaker and policy expert must examine our poll and see the nuanced and detailed reasons behind voter’s concerns on this issue. States are experiencing problems as they seek to implement laws allowing undocumented immigrants to apply for driver’s licenses. In Colorado, a law went into effect this summer, but the demand for appointments has been so high that the state’s motor vehicle scheduling website was overwhelmed. The site shut down several times when it began scheduling appointments.

Colorado is only offering application appointments in five of its 37 DMV offices, forcing many unlicensed immigrants to travel long distances to get to an office. The state argues that it can’t expand its services without raising the cost of the applications.

In Illinois, a state with a large number of undocumented workers, has so many immigrants attempting to apply that the waiting period for an appointment is about three months.

California, home to about 1.4 million undocumented immigrants, will begin accepting applications in January. The state has had to create a new design for its licenses because the federal government ruled that the licenses were too similar to their traditional driver’s license.

The Taxpayer Association encourages all policy makers and leaders to absorb the lessons from other states and learn from the survey data provided.   After the election is often too late to go back and inquire what the principles and concerns voters had before the influence of advertisement, voter turn-out or the impact of the issue being settled after an election.

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