Oregon forecast warns “growth recession” ahead

By Taxpayers Association of Oregon
OregonWatchdog.com

Just this morning, the official Office of Economic Analysis has produced their forecast for Oregon’s economy and it is not good.

It does not forecast a recession, but it does forecasts a “growth recession, profit recession” to use their own words.

The economy is slipping.

Income taxes are down.

Lottery revenue is down $36 million.

Marijuana taxes are down by $7 million.

Corporate Activity Tax revenues in 2025-27 have declined $44.4 million.

Lawmakers now have $755 million less funds than what they projected at the beginning of the year.

Oregon’s unemployment is up.  The unemployment rate was 4.6% in March versus 4.1% in March 2024.

Oregon GDP growth trailed the U.S. GDP growth by an average of 1.2 percentage points in 2024.

All of the big taxes since 2019 (Corporate Activities Tax, METRO Homeless Income/business tax hike, biennial gas tax increases, etc…) are dragging Oregon’s economy down.

Here are the taxes being considered by the 2025 Legislature:

• Kicker theft (HB 1177)
• Gas tax, wage tax, bike tax, truck tax car tax
• 3% property tax (SB 712)
• 8% beer-wine tax (Hb 1197)
• Timber Tax (HB 3489)
• Drink tax (Hb 3940)
• $120 Million Google/Facebook tax (SB 686)
• 250% marriage fee hike (SB 97)
• 4% tire tax (Hb 3362)
• Vaping, Hookah, tobacco tax (Hb 2528)
• $500M hospital-healthcare tax (Hb 2010)
• $800 million jock tax (SB 110)
• Statewide property tax #1 (HJR 6)
• Statewide property tax #2 (HJR 8)
• Kicker theft #2  (SB 573)
• Kicker theft #3  (SJR 15)
• Double RV vehicle fee (HB 3902)
• Kotek’s liquor tax increase

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